Free Bagel wrote: Sure, it's possible. It was always possible. This is fantasy football, nobody knows what is going to happen. So much random stuff happens for absolutely no visible reason. The point is playing the percentages, and percentage-wise if the Bill Polian picks someone in the first round there is a very high chance that the player is going to work out well. Far higher than with any other team or GM out there.
Again, I'm not saying either Addai or Brown are great or busts, I'm just saying that it doesn't really make sense to me to use the argument that the Colts have had such great success with their #1 picks to justify taking Brown high. Sure, Addai could be in the small percentage of "misses" for the Colts, but it's also possible that he isn't and Brown is. The most likely scenario, using their high percentage of success, is that both will be good, which would limit Brown's FF value.
I guess I'm saying if you don't think Addai is great and you really like Brown, by all means grab him, but I don't think it makes sense to do it based on drafting track records. There are plenty of other reasons to draft him, I just can't use that one when it would actually run counter to the argument if Addai doesn't pan out.
I guess the difference we're having here is that I think the jury is out on Addai. He didn't work out, and I don't think the Colts would have used another 1st rounder on a RB if they didn't feel the same way.
So Addai is one out of ten that didn't work out. That still leaves Brown with pretty good odds.
Doesn't "the jury is out" mean that it's undecided?
I know what you're saying, I don't quite agree. I actually think the jury is still out on Addai, I'm not ready to call him a bust or a great player just yet. I've never been a huge fan of his, but I think he is decent. I think the Colts used a #1 on Brown because they lost Rhodes and want another solid RB, not because they are writing Addai off as a bust. Most teams are using 2 or more RBs these days, and that's what they said they plan on doing.
That's probably the best way to put it, now for me I valued Brown pretty highly before the draft, but you can't ignore Polian's track record in developing 1st rounders, and ANY WR or RB that goes on Peyton Manning's team is going to get some sort of a boost anyway.
Did you know see my other posts? I'm not saying Brown shouldn't be the #3 pick here, he obviously is good and has value, but using Polian's track record as a positive really doesn't make sense to me here- it's hard to argue that Polian's been so successful in the past, but then in the same breath say he failed with Addai. If he failed with Addai, then he could just as easily have failed with Brown (that would basically put him 50/50 with RBs- Edge and Addai). If he didn't fail with Addai, then Brown can't be that[i] valuable because that would mean Addai is very good.
Yes I read your post, but I wasn't responding to yours, I was responding to FB in that I agree with him regardless of how you felt.
I wasn't really disagreeing with you either, nobody ever said Polian's track record is the be all end all of the conversation, if you check the dynasty rookie thread in the draft forum I have been VERY high on Brown back in January, being drafted by Polian into an offense with Peyton Manning is just icing on the cake.
Even if Addai ended up a full fledge bust, that's one out of how many picks? Odds are with you that Brown will be a hit, but like I said, I had my mind made up well before the draft, and it would be silly for me to not bump him up playing with Peyton Manning...We can ignore Polian for second, but the Colts offense is a well oiled machine, there couldn't of been a better long term landing spot for Brown personally, so why should I downgrade him?
Your putting too much stock into the Polian draft history, that was just one of the [i]many reasons I liked Brown after the fact, but it's hardly the sole reason why I had him ranked so high...It has more to do with what he did at UCONN carrying that team, reminds me of Deangelo at Memphis, also has more to do with how much of an athletic freak he is evidenced by his broad jump, 40 and vertical jump.
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The Lung wrote:This poll runs until Thu May 07, 2009 @ 12:14 pm, and it's still a close contest between Donald Brown and Crabtree...if you haven't already done so, please get your vote in!
For future polls, should we allow for the changing of votes in case someone wants to change their vote to either Crabtree or Brown from someone else who now clearly has no shot at winning?
I weighed that option, but I want people to vote by their initial reaction, and not change later on just to swing a vote. I also weighed having a separate run-off vote / poll in case there was a tie. In the end, in the interest of time as well as holding attraction to these polls, I think I will just cast a tie-breaking vote for RB Donald Brown.
Humpback wrote:but using Polian's track record as a positive really doesn't make sense to me here- it's hard to argue that Polian's been so successful in the past, but then in the same breath say he failed with Addai. If he failed with Addai, then he could just as easily have failed with Brown (that would basically put him 50/50 with RBs- Edge and Addai).
No, it makes plenty of sense. Even if he failed with Addai, that makes 1 out of the last 10. That would basically put him at 90/10, not 50/50. Obviously past performance isn't necessarily a predictor of future success, but it's something pretty good to go on.
Again, it's about percentages. No one is saying that because Polian picked him in the 1st he will automatically be a good player, just that if Polian picked him in the 1st there's a pretty good chance that he's a pretty good player.
Humpback wrote:Doesn't "the jury is out" mean that it's undecided?
Errrr, yea, mixed up my cliche's there. The jury is IN on Addai, imho