Who is the #5 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts? You are voting on who will have the best fantasy football production in the NFL over the next 5 or 6 years with the team on which the player was just drafted, NOT who will have the best year in 2009. Assume standard scoring (1 pt. per 10 yards rushing / receiving, and no PPR) Also please assume that you have a balanced roster and don't have a great specific need for a QB, WR, etc.
Feel free to discuss the pros and cons of these players - this could be helpful for some and generate some good discussion. If you'd like to vote for a player NOT on this list, then please vote "other" and make a post to discuss the player.
Drafting a few trillion WR early in drafts in the past decade does earn you some good targets and Detroit's running game isn't half bad. I don't believe Stafford will be great this year, but he has all the physical skills so that in the future, when the get a couple of OL, he could be excellent. Look for the future and take Stafford.
I'll give Shonn Green an 80% chance of being the starter in NY by 2010. And a starting RB is always worth more than a WR or QB. Even after Larry Fitzgerald's solid rookie season (he's arguably the #1 dynasty WR at this point), there were at least 20 RBs worth more than him going into that second season. And even he totally blew up in his second year, there were at least 10 RBs that were worth more than him going into year 3. Even now there might be 10 RBs worth more than him. Getting a guy like Larry Fitzgerald is the best case scenario when drafting rookie WR.
And besides Calvin Johnson, there hasn't been a prospect like Larry Fitzgerald for years. Crabtree like Fitzgerald deserves to go that early because those two guys were breaking some records in college and jump off the page when you talk about them. Percy Harvin has failed drug tests and he misses the start of camp due to "dehydration". And even if he does turn out to be Fitzgerald (he surely is not a Fitzgerald-like prospect), in the short term a solid starting RB is worth more than him no matter what he does. In the long term the RB STILL may be worth more even if that guy hits into a top5 WR. Key thing here is, if you want the WR, you could easily trade the starting RB for the WR in year 1.5 and probably get even more in return. Unless you are completely sold on this WR being the next Boldin/Moss/Royal etc. chances are drafting WRs early in the first round over RBs is not going to pay off in the long run. The only way you pass up on Shonn Green or even McCoy at this point in the draft is if you think that the chances are they won't become starters within the next three years because they are seriously flawed in some way.
I can understand the buy and hold philsophy, and in that case it can make sense drafting WRs at #5. But you can buy and hold all the WRs you want, if people aren't willing to trade RBs for them, you will be hurting. Buy and holding non-elite WRs in dynasty at pick #5 is a losing proposition unless the league is highly favorable to WRs. Last year was a complete fluke for RB talent with anyone in the top7 or even top8 picks getting a potential franchise fantasy RB. And I understand that the talent this year is completely different, but at the same time I think a guy Shonn Green is a solid value in any year right around pick 5. Consider the situation he landed in and the type of talent that got him there. Unless you want to make the argument that this guy is still on the bench in 2011, I don't see how you can pass on a guy like that. A completely average RB in Rudi Johnson hung onto a favorable position for YEARS and at one point in time he was worth more than Larry Fitzgerald ever will be. If you saw the level of talent and sold high on that guy, you could have had a guy like Fitzgerald and then some.
I went with Harvin. I think he adds a very explosive dynamic to that offense and really opens up the playbook. Especially with Berrian on one side and the best RB in the game. The only question (big question) is QB. Probably Rosenfels which I'd be fine with. In my Rookie Draft I'm taking Crabman second overall, but Harvin should be something special.
A supposed "experts" draft, Crabtree went 5th (due to team needs) and McCoy went 4th.
I voted Greene- young offensive core (Cotch, franchise QB, well-built o-line), strong defense. He's in the right place- power inside runner who's only readily apparent negatives are age and a lack of breakaway speed.
McCoy?- lacks power; bounces too much outside; lacks breakaway speed; lacks size/toughness- falls to the ground, heads out of bounds to avoid hits