JimiRayThunderaxe wrote:The buy low sell high plan above seems interesting and I definitely agree with that philosophy but at this point I think trading LT BEFORE the season is selling high. Too dangerous to keep him and hope for the best.
a) Norv Turner is a great QB coach and has absolutely no interest/clue when it comes to the running game. I believe the Chargers running game was ranked in the bottom 5 last year after being in the top 5 the past couple of years.
b) in addition to LT being 30 and his injuries etc. there is Darren Sproles. Say what you want about Norv spelling LT but the game that pissed me off the most last year (and I was knocked out of the playoffs because of this) was the Oakland game where after a whole season of underperforming (by his standards) LT begged out of the Oakland game apparently because it wasn't worthy of his time. THAT pissed me off and I don't think it bodes well.
Ahem. But I digress.
WHAT ABOUT THIS:
LT and my first two draft picks.
Too much or not enough?
Someone mentioned a rebuilding year and I agree that Forte is going to be a monster for years so I am thinking this might be the best way to go.
A) Norv Turner is a good offensive minded guy and while he does work well with QBs, he doesn't do poorly with RBs by any means. Despite LT being banged up all season with a nagging turf toe injury that most players don't even try to play with, they still ran the ball an average number of times per game at 26 and the rest of his track record goes against what you're saying as well:
2007 - #7 in rushing offense
2006 - #6 in rushing offense
2004-2005 - With the Raiders...not much to be said here
2003 - Only #18 in rushing offense but #8 in rushing attempts
2002 - #2 in rushing offense
So...really, you can see that Norv does tend to like the run and have a good running approach with the exception being his time in Oakland where they were just terrible and it would have been difficult to have any sort of running game at all. Also consider that last season the Chargers defense struggled more and so they were required to pass more and the reasoning behind it becomes clear.
B) I don't know what you're talking about with the Oakland game...I think you're being ridiculous if you don't think that this guy tries to be on the field as much as possible each and every game. He had an injury that, like I said above, most players in the NFL barely even try playing with sometimes and yet he didn't miss a game all season. Turf toe is an injury that can happen to anyone and despite not being at 100% all season, he STILL was top 6 at RB in nearly every format.
I don't think Sproles will have much bigger of a role if any than he had last season, he showed that he's not capable of being an every down back on a consistent basis and a healthy LT blows him out of the water. If you're concerned about LT and his production you should be worried about the end of the season, not the start...it's not a huge risk to wait until a few weeks in to make a move when LT is still completely healthy.
I just think it's an awful lot to give up for a RB like that...he's good and they'll run him in Chicago but that could be problematic down the line if he keeps getting such heavy loads and he's certainly not the same caliber of talent as someone like ADP or LT.
Just my thoughts but I think you're doing a panic move pretty prematurely here...
You make some good points here.
Particularly the one about turf toe.
Last year was a pretty frustrating one as an LT owner. I didn't even realize he finished as a top ten RB until you mentioned it. I think he only cracked 20 points twice and while he didn't loose me many games he didn't win me many either. 2008 reminded me of that Skins tournament years back where Jack Nicholas shot the best over all score at the end of the round but took home no prize money because he never won a single hole. That's kind of what LT was last year: a very solid #2 RB. So, maybe I am letting frustration get to me. It certainly did during that Oakland game. He could have been HUGE in that game.
You make some good points on Norv as well and the guy is 1 million times the football coach I will ever be but I do note in the trend in the stats you give above the running game ranking declines with each successive year Norv is in charge. Add that to Darren Sproles and the fact that LT is 30 and has had 3 injuries in the last year and a half and it still makes me nervous. Plus, Norv makes a great punching bag.
Having said all that, you have persuaded me that perhaps I am undervaluing LT enough that I should not give up the draft picks - big danger of too high an asking price - but on the other hand if I wait until the season starts I not only have to hope LT does well, I have to also hope Forte doesn't do well (or not as well as LT). Chicago is ranked as having the easiest schedule in the NFL next season according to ESPN AND they play Detroit. Twice.
Rest assured that what you posted will be cut and pasted in to my trade proposal - thank you!
GIVEN THE ABOVE - TRADE NOW WITH PICKS FOR FORTE OR WAIT UNTIL THE SEASON STARTS??? WHAT DO YOU THINK?