Again people insist that QBs have no value in fantasy...
No value? You might be taking that a little far but the bottom line is that the percentage of these rookie QBs that even become VIABLE fantasy QBs, not even talking elite fantasy QBs, are very very small. Add in that there are enough QBs in the league for most fantasy teams to not desperately need a QB and the value of RBs and WRs over a big risk at QB, especially the ones in this years draft, becomes very evident. I guess I can't see how you can't see that.
If you're going to take one of these QBs...it would be a waste in value to take him in the top 8 or so players...I doubt you'll see them go earlier than that in leagues with people that know what they're doing.
Again people insist that QBs have no value in fantasy...
No value? You might be taking that a little far but the bottom line is that the percentage of these rookie QBs that even become VIABLE fantasy QBs, not even talking elite fantasy QBs, are very very small. Add in that there are enough QBs in the league for most fantasy teams to not desperately need a QB and the value of RBs and WRs over a big risk at QB, especially the ones in this years draft, becomes very evident. I guess I can't see how you can't see that.
If you're going to take one of these QBs...it would be a waste in value to take him in the top 8 or so players...I doubt you'll see them go earlier than that in leagues with people that know what they're doing.
I have Stafford at #24 overall, Sanchez at #25 overall, Freeman at #33 and Pat White at #34.
Junior QB's have a massive fail rate in the NFL, almost 70% I believe. There may be 1 or 2 that start week 1 this year but chances are 3 of those 4 are complete busts.
Now, none of those guys will last until my rankings so essentially I have written off drafting any of them this year.
Again people insist that QBs have no value in fantasy...
No value? You might be taking that a little far but the bottom line is that the percentage of these rookie QBs that even become VIABLE fantasy QBs, not even talking elite fantasy QBs, are very very small. Add in that there are enough QBs in the league for most fantasy teams to not desperately need a QB and the value of RBs and WRs over a big risk at QB, especially the ones in this years draft, becomes very evident. I guess I can't see how you can't see that.
If you're going to take one of these QBs...it would be a waste in value to take him in the top 8 or so players...I doubt you'll see them go earlier than that in leagues with people that know what they're doing.
Well, the fact is, I'm not a Harvin fan or a Maclin fan. If I believed either of them would be good NFL players, I'd go WR. That being said, while Stafford may not be great this year, if you're drafting at #7, it means you are near the middle of the pack and might not mind waiting another couple years to win your championship. I'm not saying he's going to be great this year, but he's incredibly gifted physically and Detroit isn't as far away from having a decent offense as most people think they are. I'm not suggesting they're going to win many games, but I think a few players on their team could put up some decent numbers.
As we've seen with guys like Jamarcus Russell and Vince Young...being physically gifted only gets you so far and I have never been impressed in the least with Stafford even in college.
The fact still remains that the risk vs. reward is so far in the "risk" category that it hardly makes sense to use a pick at this point in the draft to take a guy who may not even be a relevant option at QB over a WR like one of those still available who historically will have a higher chance of being someone who pans out well. Even if you don't like Maclin or Harvin, there are other guys out there and the fact is still there that the VALUE is not there to go QB here.
You're acting like it's this obvious thing that people should be looking harder at the QBs here but the problem is that so many QBs drafted are busts...even more junior QBs are busts, and so the history of it all is very against either of Stafford or Sanchez panning out well.
mattb47 wrote:As we've seen with guys like Jamarcus Russell and Vince Young...being physically gifted only gets you so far and I have never been impressed in the least with Stafford even in college.
The fact still remains that the risk vs. reward is so far in the "risk" category that it hardly makes sense to use a pick at this point in the draft to take a guy who may not even be a relevant option at QB over a WR like one of those still available who historically will have a higher chance of being someone who pans out well. Even if you don't like Maclin or Harvin, there are other guys out there and the fact is still there that the VALUE is not there to go QB here.
You're acting like it's this obvious thing that people should be looking harder at the QBs here but the problem is that so many QBs drafted are busts...even more junior QBs are busts, and so the history of it all is very against either of Stafford or Sanchez panning out well.
I said it before, 2/3 JR QBs in the past have been busts. The numbers just aren't with these guys.
At least Stafford shouldn't have a problem scoring TD's, a healthy Calvin Johnson is 15 alone, if he can find a way to distribute 10 more he'll usually have a solid season...Most QB's don't get blessed enough to have a talent like Calvin, and we have seen instances where an elite talent at WR makes a QB alot better, when you throw a 4 yard hitch route and he scores from 50 yards out those are the type of advantages he'll have vs picking his spots all the way down the field.
Add in the safety valve with Pettigrew, and I really don't think Stafford will bust...I'm not drafting him until the 2nd round and that's if I even need him, but I really think he's going to have a good situation to go into and he'll do just fine if Detroit continues to draft O-line next year.
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Last 15 junior QB's drafted in the 1st round... really, really, really bad track record
Taken off a website... several have this list published with varying comments.
Successes
■Ben Roethlisberger ■Drew Bledsoe
Failures
■Alex Smith ■Rex Grossman (yes, he made a Super Bowl, but does anyone really consider him anything other than a failure in Chicago?) ■Michael Vick (if maturity is what keeps underclassmen QBs from succeeding, then I think Vick has to be considered a failure despite his flashes of success.) ■Tim Couch ■Ryan Leaf ■Heath Shuler ■Tommy Maddox ■Todd Marinovich ■Jeff George ■Andre Ware
Incompletes
■JaMarcus Russell ■Vince Young ■Trent Dilfer (gets bonus points for winning a Super Bowl, but didn’t win it for the team that drafted him.)
It should also be noted that a large portion of those QB's came from Spread offenses in College, and some would attribute that more then anything to their struggles.
Alex Smith - Utah Rex Grossman - Florida Tim Couch - Kentucky Ryan Leaf - Washington St. Andre Ware - Houston Jeff George - Illinois (although the article is pushing it calling him a bust, he led the NFL in TD's and passer rating in 97, and led two seperate teams to the playoffs, yea he may of been a migrater and never stuck with one franchise but you really can't call him a bust) Vince Young - Texas Jamarcus Russel - LSU
All ran the spread offense, that's a bigger red flag for me then Juniors...Both Sanchez and Stafford were in pro style offenses, have made pro style reads and throws before, Sanchez while a junior has been at USC 4 years in that system and been learning all that time, not only that he'll be drafted into a great situation that has a top flight offensive line, ground game, and defense, not a better recipe for a young QB possible.
Stafford has led that Georgia team since he was a freshman, and he has been a dominant QB since HS, I think he's been destined to have a bright future ahead of him for a long time now, and I think Detroit finally has the right management in town to properly develop a QB...That track record really isn't pretty but I'm pretty confident both QB's won't be considered bust at the next level, alot of how a QB turns out is how he is developed and coached up.
Stafford has a high enough ceiling that I'd think about late 1st, he really does look like Jay Cutler, and Cutler made plenty of screw ups while he was at Vandy, if that's how he turns out he'd be well worth that late 1st pick, but 7 is still a tad early for me to even bother with the risk.
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A lot of it too will depend on how Detroit deals with him...I think they could really hinder his progress potentially by throwing him in there right from the start but if they take it slow and let him learn for a season as a backup then I think he has a much better chance of developing into at least a decent QB in this league. I honestly haven't liked what I've seen of him to the point that I think he will ever be a "great" QB in this league but he does have the "tools" to be a solid one...the only problem is that is that most of the QBs that fail have the "tools" to be decent QBs but fail for whatever reason.
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by mattb47 » Sun May 17, 2009 12:09 pm 
Tied up
