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Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Free Bagel » Sat May 16, 2009 5:50 pm

moochman wrote:I would be okay with starting out my season with Moss, Fitz, and two of Bush, Grant, K Smith, J Stew, Addia, McFaddy. It always seems to me that when you go WR/WR it pressures other owners to take a WR and hope a RB they have their eye on falls back down to them. It's a gamble, but drafting at 12 calls for unconventional drafting.


This kind of touches on what dgan was talking about. People are going to mock this WR/WR thing out and see RBs like that available, but once you get down to actual draft day and people have to put their money and pride on the line I guarantee you guys like Bush, Grant, and Kevin Smith will be loooonnnnnggggg gone by the time the last pick in the 3rd round rolls around. I would think being able to land a guy like Addai or McFadden would be a best case scenario.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby mattb47 » Sun May 17, 2009 12:16 am

Yea...you'll always find that people tend to go far more RB heavy when it comes to ACTUALLY drafting their team than when they are trying something out in a mock...you go without taking a RB until picks 36/37 and you'll be hurting badly...
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Mr.Joshua » Sun May 17, 2009 5:02 am

Well, thanks for all of the great input, I guess it comes down to whose left for me at 12. But if one team takes a non rb before me(probably will happen) I'll end up with 2 of these guys. If 11 rb's go, then I may go rb/wr......no order

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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby My team is injured » Sun May 17, 2009 9:54 am

Free Bagel, I think you're substantially overestimating the importance of the RB vs. WR position in fantasy lineups, at least for typical PPR scoring. (If you're not accounting for PPR in your replies, then nevermind).

First off, if you're drafting say, at the swing pick at the end of round 1, then the top tier of RBs is likely gone so you're comparing the 2nd or 3rd tier of RBs to the top tier of WRs and possibly your pick of the litter. Now, I'm not necessarily advocating WR/WR, but if all the RBs I had in my top 2 tiers (projected at ~280+ points w/out injuries) are gone, then I probably would go back to back WRs and if multiple RBs are present from my 2nd tier, I'm likely still grabbing 1 wideout with a RB rather than 2 RB.

At this swing pick, for example, you're likely comparing a WR projected to score substantially more straight up than the top RB available as well as at least as much a differential than who will be available at the corresponding positions at the swing picks at rounds 3/4. The further you go in round 2, the stronger the case for pairing a WR with the RB you drafted in round 1 becomes as this projected point differential increases.

From my drafting experience in recent years, the best value almost always ends up being RB/WR/WR irrespective of where you're drafting. I just took a look through things and in my last 8 qualifying drafts over the past 3 years, I didn't draft more than 1 RB the first 3 rounds a single time and I actually went RB/WR/WR/WR once. For what it's worth, I've been first in points in most of these leagues and got the title in a number as well. It of course could simply be better overall player evaluation, a bit of luck, etc. though I think my drafting top WRs in lieu of 3rd tier RBs has played its role in my success. The top team hands down in one of my leagues this past year also went wideout heavy as he picked up WR/WR to go with his RB/WR keepers.

I think owners can get leary of what RBs are going to fill out their roster if they don't stockpile them early and end up drafting to not be weak rather than to be strong. If I see a bigger point differential from the top wideout to who will be available in a couple rounds as well as a replacement level WR and I think that wideout is as likely if not more likely to meet his projected #s than the available RBs, then I'm taking a wideout largely regardless of perceived roster needs. Same goes with TE, QB, defense, etc.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby LS2throwed » Sun May 17, 2009 10:19 am

Now a days, with so many RBBC's, you can grab elite WR's and find RB's late, it happens every year. Not just QB's are found late in the draft.


I have realized most cafe leagues are just Rb heavy, or majority of the owners value RB's very highly, more so then some of my other leagues, but I firmly stand by taking the best player, if there are two elite WR's there I'm not reaching for a RB, same with an elite QB, I took Romo in the 2nd round in a few leagues and made out alright...You have to change your draft style up some, but there will be good RB's available past round 3, you just have to target more in the following rounds to increase your chances.


A guy like Pierre Thomas and Deangelo Williams were late round grabs last year that emerged, if you played the wire someone like Tashard Choice was a monster the entire playoffs, this year someone like Felix Jones will probably be around in the 6th round and end up out-playing some 2nd round RB's. If I'm picking at 12 I think I could still build a winning team by going Calvin and Fitzgerald with my first two picks, especially in a ppr league.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby moochman » Sun May 17, 2009 10:46 am

Free Bagel wrote:
moochman wrote:I would be okay with starting out my season with Moss, Fitz, and two of Bush, Grant, K Smith, J Stew, Addia, McFaddy. It always seems to me that when you go WR/WR it pressures other owners to take a WR and hope a RB they have their eye on falls back down to them. It's a gamble, but drafting at 12 calls for unconventional drafting.


This kind of touches on what dgan was talking about. People are going to mock this WR/WR thing out and see RBs like that available, but once you get down to actual draft day and people have to put their money and pride on the line I guarantee you guys like Bush, Grant, and Kevin Smith will be loooonnnnnggggg gone by the time the last pick in the 3rd round rolls around. I would think being able to land a guy like Addai or McFadden would be a best case scenario.


Bush was a mistake, especially in a PPR, but those other RBs may drop due to disappointing seasons last year.K Smith didn't have a geat statistical season last year and some may not look at finishes as much as totals in drafting. Remember that this is based on a WR run starting after taking the top two at 12 & 13. That will help some quality RBs drop. I would have no problem with a J Stew and Pierre Thomas combo. The important thing about using a strategy like this (or for drafting at the end of the round) is that you cannot miss on your 3-6 rnd draft picks. You won't have an AD or LT to make up for some arfing Bronco RB.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby mattb47 » Sun May 17, 2009 12:05 pm

moochman wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
moochman wrote:I would be okay with starting out my season with Moss, Fitz, and two of Bush, Grant, K Smith, J Stew, Addia, McFaddy. It always seems to me that when you go WR/WR it pressures other owners to take a WR and hope a RB they have their eye on falls back down to them. It's a gamble, but drafting at 12 calls for unconventional drafting.


This kind of touches on what dgan was talking about. People are going to mock this WR/WR thing out and see RBs like that available, but once you get down to actual draft day and people have to put their money and pride on the line I guarantee you guys like Bush, Grant, and Kevin Smith will be loooonnnnnggggg gone by the time the last pick in the 3rd round rolls around. I would think being able to land a guy like Addai or McFadden would be a best case scenario.


Bush was a mistake, especially in a PPR, but those other RBs may drop due to disappointing seasons last year.K Smith didn't have a geat statistical season last year and some may not look at finishes as much as totals in drafting. Remember that this is based on a WR run starting after taking the top two at 12 & 13. That will help some quality RBs drop. I would have no problem with a J Stew and Pierre Thomas combo. The important thing about using a strategy like this (or for drafting at the end of the round) is that you cannot miss on your 3-6 rnd draft picks. You won't have an AD or LT to make up for some arfing Bronco RB.


I think that's probably what it comes down to...if you're extremely confident in your ability to pick RBs in the mid rounds without letting it kill you, then this becomes a more viable approach but you basically have to be lights out on your mid round picks. If you mess up your first 2-3 RB picks and they don't pan out like you expected, you're going to be hard pressed to even be competitive.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby moochman » Mon May 18, 2009 9:33 am

mattb47 wrote:
moochman wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:
This kind of touches on what dgan was talking about. People are going to mock this WR/WR thing out and see RBs like that available, but once you get down to actual draft day and people have to put their money and pride on the line I guarantee you guys like Bush, Grant, and Kevin Smith will be loooonnnnnggggg gone by the time the last pick in the 3rd round rolls around. I would think being able to land a guy like Addai or McFadden would be a best case scenario.


Bush was a mistake, especially in a PPR, but those other RBs may drop due to disappointing seasons last year.K Smith didn't have a geat statistical season last year and some may not look at finishes as much as totals in drafting. Remember that this is based on a WR run starting after taking the top two at 12 & 13. That will help some quality RBs drop. I would have no problem with a J Stew and Pierre Thomas combo. The important thing about using a strategy like this (or for drafting at the end of the round) is that you cannot miss on your 3-6 rnd draft picks. You won't have an AD or LT to make up for some arfing Bronco RB.


I think that's probably what it comes down to...if you're extremely confident in your ability to pick RBs in the mid rounds without letting it kill you, then this becomes a more viable approach but you basically have to be lights out on your mid round picks. If you mess up your first 2-3 RB picks and they don't pan out like you expected, you're going to be hard pressed to even be competitive.


Drafting from the 12 spot is tough, say to take the best two RBs left, what next? You cannot miss on you second or third tier WRs and have to hope you RB doesn't get injured or underperform. It isn't an easy go either way, I just like having elite level talent and hoping to hit on rising RB talent.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Kareighuis » Mon May 18, 2009 10:32 am

moochman wrote:Drafting from the 12 spot is tough, say to take the best two RBs left, what next? You cannot miss on you second or third tier WRs and have to hope you RB doesn't get injured or underperform. It isn't an easy go either way, I just like having elite level talent and hoping to hit on rising RB talent.


I agree. If I'm drafting 12th, I let the RB value each year dictate whether to go WR-WR. Last year, I'd have gone AJ and Fitz in the 1st/2nd, then targeted Thomas Jones, Brandon Jacobs and Michael Turner for the 3rd/4th.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Free Bagel » Mon May 18, 2009 11:31 am

Kareighuis wrote:Last year, I'd have gone AJ and Fitz in the 1st/2nd, then targeted Thomas Jones, Brandon Jacobs and Michael Turner for the 3rd/4th.


Suuuure you would have. And if I were GM of the Jets in 2000 I wouldn't have drafted Chad Pennington in the 1st round and would have taken Brady in the 6th instead. :-b

AJ and Fitz weren't even in the top 4 of the consensus top WRs last year, Jacobs was gone in the 2nd round, and Turner was gone at the early third at the very LATEST and for TJ you would have been picking out of a much larger pool of RBs.

At WR you would have been picking between Moss, Owens, Wayne, and Braylon Edwards, all of whom vastly underperformed except maybe Wayne who I think finished at WR8 (still not great if you took him that early).

Then at RB in the 3rd/4th you would have been picking between Maroney, Edge, Ronnie Brown, Earnest Graham, McFadden, Stewart, Jones, FWP, Julius Jones.

Even in a best case scenario you would have ended up with something like Moss/Wayne/TJ/Edge, which is not a very scary team. Realistically, you probably would've ended up with Moss/Owens/Edge/Graham or something like that.

This is what I was talking about earlier. People talk in hindsight about this theory as if they're the best drafters ever and hit gold with every single one of their picks. "See if I you had used this last year you would have ended up with <insert names of top two WR finishers here> and <insert names of two biggest breakout RBs here>". Sorry, that's not how it works. The chance of you landing the top two WRs (or anything close to it) is extremely low and the chance of landing this year's big breakout RB is even lower. Combine the two and you get a very low number.

But, I expect that come the end of this year we'll see two guys just outside the top tier of WRs finish at the top, and a couple more mid-round breakout RBs and next offseason people will be saying "see if you had done this last year you would have ended up with Boldin/Marshall along with Greene/McGahee", even though none of those are names that are being dropped here now.

For fun, I went back and looked at the old WR/WR threads. Last year AJ/Fitz were mentioned exactly 0 times as the WRs that would be taken 1/2, and Thomas Jones was mentioned only among the eight other guys listed above, giving you pretty poor odds that he's the guy you would've ended up with. In fact, I can't find any WR/WR thread that mentions the names of the WRs that ACTUALLY ended up finishing at the top the next year ahead of time.
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