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Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Free Bagel » Mon May 18, 2009 11:39 am

My team is injured wrote:(If you're not accounting for PPR in your replies, then nevermind).


Well, I am talking more about non-PPR but I think it still applies to both to an extent, just less so to PPR leagues.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Free Bagel » Mon May 18, 2009 11:52 am

moochman wrote:K Smith didn't have a geat statistical season last year and some may not look at finishes as much as totals in drafting.


Kevin Smith had an almost identical rookie season to Kevin Jones, who was a late 1st/early 2nd round pick the next year. Smith won't go as high as Jones did because he didn't have as much hype before his rookie season as Jones, but I think asking for him to fall to the end of the 3rd is a bit much.

moochman wrote:The important thing about using a strategy like this (or for drafting at the end of the round) is that you cannot miss on your 3-6 rnd draft picks. You won't have an AD or LT to make up for some arfing Bronco RB.


This is what I want to focus on. People wildly underestimate how often busts are drafted. I remember a few years back I did a study on the 6th round when people were arguing whether or not it was worth it to take Priest over LT knowing that you'd have to "waste" a 6th rounder on LJ to cuff him. It came out that something like 80% of 6th round picks are busts or people that don't come close to living up to their draft position. There was something similar for the 3rd round which I think fell somewhere in the 50% range.

You figure in the 3rd round you have a 50% chance of not missing on your pick, in the 4th round a 40% chance of not missing with your pick, the 5th round a 30% chance, and the 6th round a 20% chance. That means the chances that you don't miss on ANY of your 3rd-6th round picks is something like .5 * .4 * .3 * .2 = 0.012, or 1%.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Kareighuis » Mon May 18, 2009 12:05 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
Kareighuis wrote:Last year, I'd have gone AJ and Fitz in the 1st/2nd, then targeted Thomas Jones, Brandon Jacobs and Michael Turner for the 3rd/4th.


Suuuure you would have. And if I were GM of the Jets in 2000 I wouldn't have drafted Chad Pennington in the 1st round and would have taken Brady in the 6th instead. :-b

AJ and Fitz weren't even in the top 4 of the consensus top WRs last year, Jacobs was gone in the 2nd round, and Turner was gone at the early third at the very LATEST and for TJ you would have been picking out of a much larger pool of RBs.

At WR you would have been picking between Moss, Owens, Wayne, and Braylon Edwards, all of whom vastly underperformed except maybe Wayne who I think finished at WR8 (still not great if you took him that early).

Then at RB in the 3rd/4th you would have been picking between Maroney, Edge, Ronnie Brown, Earnest Graham, McFadden, Stewart, Jones, FWP, Julius Jones.

Even in a best case scenario you would have ended up with something like Moss/Wayne/TJ/Edge, which is not a very scary team. Realistically, you probably would've ended up with Moss/Owens/Edge/Graham or something like that.

This is what I was talking about earlier. People talk in hindsight about this theory as if they're the best drafters ever and hit gold with every single one of their picks. "See if I you had used this last year you would have ended up with <insert names of top two WR finishers here> and <insert names of two biggest breakout RBs here>". Sorry, that's not how it works. The chance of you landing the top two WRs (or anything close to it) is extremely low and the chance of landing this year's big breakout RB is even lower. Combine the two and you get a very low number.

But, I expect that come the end of this year we'll see two guys just outside the top tier of WRs finish at the top, and a couple more mid-round breakout RBs and next offseason people will be saying "see if you had done this last year you would have ended up with Boldin/Marshall along with Greene/McGahee", even though none of those are names that are being dropped here now.

For fun, I went back and looked at the old WR/WR threads. Last year AJ/Fitz were mentioned exactly 0 times as the WRs that would be taken 1/2, and Thomas Jones was mentioned only among the eight other guys listed above, giving you pretty poor odds that he's the guy you would've ended up with. In fact, I can't find any WR/WR thread that mentions the names of the WRs that ACTUALLY ended up finishing at the top the next year ahead of time.


I said I would have based on my personal rankings (to hell with The Consensus) going into last season and how the draft for one of my competitive redraft leagues went. Last year, I had Fitz and AJ as the top 2 WRs. I loved last year, when people took both Moss and Edwards before my top 2.

I targeted Thomas Jones (drafted 5.04) last year because new o-line, new blocking FB, QB with a cannon forces passing game respect.
I wasn't interested in Jacobs (3.11) at all, or Turner (5.06) much, but would have drafted them with the intent of trading them for a different RB and a WR2. I didn't draft Maroney, Edge, Ronnie Brown, Earnest Graham, McFadden, Jones, FWP, Julius Jones in any of my redrafts and wouldn't have drafted most of them. I did draft Stewart in one redraft.

And no, I'm not (totally) brilliant/lucky- I drafted Selvin Young as my RB4.

Free Bagel wrote:But, I expect that come the end of this year we'll see two guys just outside the top tier of WRs finish at the top, and a couple more mid-round breakout RBs and next offseason people will be saying "see if you had done this last year you would have ended up with Boldin/Marshall along with Greene/McGahee", even though none of those are names that are being dropped here now.


If I were trying to do best-case-scenario story, I would have mentioned DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Kevin Smith, none of whom I wanted anything to do with. Edge went after Forte in one of my competitive redrafts.

For the sake of discussion, let's pretend I am making a fictional "best case scenario" argument, rather than stating what I would have done at that time in that situation. Then, the question is, can you identify 2 WRs likely to finish in the top 10 and two breakout RBs you can grab in the 3rd/4th, either to be your starters or as depth?
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby My team is injured » Mon May 18, 2009 12:08 pm

Lol, yeah I chuckled at Kareighuis's reply too, Bagel. Talk about perfect drafting.

I don't have time to dig for data from years past at the moment (though it's probably in my prior posts on similar topics), but in PPR leagues the success of 1st/2nd tier WRs has been higher, and I believe substantially so, than the 3rd tier RBs available for selection starting at the end of the first round through the 2nd/3rd rounds. By success, I'm accounting for games missed due to injury as well as performance on a weekly basis and how close the players fare in regards to their projected numbers. Upon a quick glance, it looks like the success rates may have been closer to even last year than normal but I think it still favored the WR position over the RB position for the draft slots in rounds 2 and 3.

I'll try to post a more in-depth response later but there's plenty of data from the past several years that supports drafting WR-heavy early in PPR leagues and myself and others have been doing so successfully for years.

Oh, and as an aside, Jacobs and Turner did not go that high on average in PPR leagues. In a mock PPR draft on this site, I think jacobs was in the 30s and I got him later than I thought he should have gone in 2 leagues. Turner also went anywhere from round 2 to round 5 in my PPR leagues and I didn't even have him in my top 20 RBs.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Kareighuis » Mon May 18, 2009 12:15 pm

My team is injured wrote:Lol, yeah I chuckled at Kareighuis's reply too, Bagel. Talk about perfect drafting.


Read my previous post.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Free Bagel » Mon May 18, 2009 12:35 pm

Kareighuis wrote:I said I would have based on my personal rankings (to hell with The Consensus) going into last season and how the draft for one of my competitive redraft leagues went. Last year, I had Fitz and AJ as the top 2 WRs. I loved last year, when people took both Moss and Edwards before my top 2.

I targeted Thomas Jones (drafted 5.04) last year because new o-line, new blocking FB, QB with a cannon forces passing game respect.


Fair enough, but any year you're that dead on about the players you're targeting you're going to do well no matter what positions you're drafting. I would say results such as that would have been uncommon for those going WR/WR last year.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby My team is injured » Mon May 18, 2009 12:42 pm

Kareighuis wrote:
My team is injured wrote:Lol, yeah I chuckled at Kareighuis's reply too, Bagel. Talk about perfect drafting.


Read my previous post.


Gotcha. And not saying you couldn't have done that, hell, one of my buddies had s-jax/wayne in a PPR as keepers last year and drafted andre, marshall, turner, and chris johnson later. Which left him with the hands down most dominant team in the league with 3 of his first 4 picks/keepers being wideouts. Your initial response just seemed nonchalant as to how you would have drafted those guys in what would have equated to a near perfect first 4 picks.

Oh, and I had selvin high too. Heck, I almost picked him ahead of ronnie as my RB3. :-o
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Kensat30 » Mon May 18, 2009 1:10 pm

I don't like the top tier of WRs this year at all. I don't think you can get a huge advantage with WR1 and WR2 compared to WR7 and WR8. How is Andre Johnson so much better than Reggie Wayne? Randy Moss could easily be the far and away #1 WR this year and you can probably get him at WR5.

On most draftboards, you're looking at a couple of guys who have only done it once in Andre/Calvin Johnson and another guy who has produced well, but never at a true "stud" level with Fitzgerald. I could easily argue that Steve Smith is a better pick than all of the above mentioned guys, and yet I don't see Steve Smith as the #1 on ANYONE's board. There is no value picking the #1WR this year and you I think you hurt yourself greatly picking WR/WR in most size leagues this year considering the types of RBs that are available near the end of round 1 and into round 2 this year.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Instinctive » Mon May 18, 2009 5:55 pm

The key, above all else, is to do your research and make your own projections. Make your own projections!!!!!

The WR heavy strategy definitely works, I have won the last two years with it because I do my own projections. You have to look at each guys situation, and then make your own stats and rankigns from that based on risk etc...and then look at ADP and mocks. Here, as a sample/cuz I still have it, is my draft from last year in my $$$ league (.5 ppr)

SJax
Colston
Andre Johnson
Dwayne Bowe
Steve Smith (CAR) (remember the 2 game suspension? I targeted him in every league)
DeAngelo Williams (guy before took JStew)
Chester Taylor (intent to trade to AD owner)
CJ4.24
Steve Slaton
Devin Hester (BUST)
Schaub (yep. Round 11 after everyone else had 2 QBs already)

And then Hightower in the 16th.

Anyway, the point is, with research and looking at opportunity, this year I can already see how my draft is probably going to end up, with all my picks getting a bit of laughter as 1 round early reaches or so.......

I can see a strong back, lets say Slaton/SJax/CJ4.24/LT is available at pick 12. Then take a guy like Calvin because you know he can do it with crpa at QB. Then you look at guys who underperformed the year before, like Colston, and have been forgotten a bit. Then another WR or two, then Greene/Wells/Hightower/Chester/Stewart/etc...

And what you get is a whole bunch of lottery ticket RBs with good situations, and 3-4 very strong WRs so all you need is one guy to hit and you have 5 starters. Then take a QB who may not be a star but is consistent, and a TE like Olsen. Miller, etc...Cooley b/c he is way undervalued this year.


The heavy WR drafting can definitely work, is what I'm saying, as long as you do your homework. Don't worry too much about the widely agreed uypon rankings except as predictors of who falls to you. Lots of RBs after a strong RB1 and 3 WRs is a greta plan, unless you have QB hevay odd scoring....
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby My team is injured » Mon May 18, 2009 6:16 pm

mattb47 wrote:I think that's probably what it comes down to...if you're extremely confident in your ability to pick RBs in the mid rounds without letting it kill you, then this becomes a more viable approach but you basically have to be lights out on your mid round picks. If you mess up your first 2-3 RB picks and they don't pan out like you expected, you're going to be hard pressed to even be competitive.


It seems to be the prevailing opinion that you must draft better in the early to mid rounds than normal if you go WR high and I don't think this is the case.

Take the 2 extremes for the swing pick in a 10 person PPR performance league. Case A drafts RB/RB and Case B drafts WR/WR. Let's assume 8 RBs and 1 WR have been picked prior to pick 10. All of my below projections are assuming no injuries and 16 games played. Injuries only factor into the success rates, which is a rough estimation of the likelihood of players to meet projections based on performance and injury risks. I included a quick formula just to assign some mathematical value to each draft for comparison purposes.

Case A: Drafts RB/RB in rounds 1/2 and then WR/WR

Rounds 1/2: Success rate of the RBs available is likely no higher than 40% and projections ~270 pts.
Rounds 3/4: Success rate for WRs = 50% and projections ~270 pts.
Formula = .4*270 + .5*270 = 243

Case B: Drafts WR/WR in rounds 1/2 and then RB/RB

Rounds 1/2: Success rate of the top WRs (minus 1 drafted) is around 60% w/ projections ~300 pts.
Rounds 3/4: Success rate for RBs = 30% and projections ~225 pts.
Formula = .6*300 + .3*225 = 247.5

Basically, if you draft in Case A, it's likely you'll have 1 RB and 1 WR penciled in for pretty good but not great #s. If you draft in Case B, you'll likely have 1 WR w/ great #s and a good chance to have 1 RB putting up decent/startable #s.

What it boils down to from this swing pick is preference and where you think the value lies. Personally, I tend to grab 1 RB and 1 WR apiece when drafting around the swing pick but could certainly see a compelling argument for WR/WR some years and don't think you would have to be any better at player evaluation later in the draft to succeed with such a strategy (though I also don't think it's quite as difficult to get RBs later as some think... the hard part is not cutting them like I did with D.Will :-P )
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