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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby My team is injured » Mon May 18, 2009 6:29 pm

Instinctive wrote:The key, above all else, is to do your research and make your own projections. Make your own projections!!!!!

The WR heavy strategy definitely works, I have won the last two years with it because I do my own projections. You have to look at each guys situation, and then make your own stats and rankigns from that based on risk etc...and then look at ADP and mocks. Here, as a sample/cuz I still have it, is my draft from last year in my $$$ league (.5 ppr)

SJax
Colston
Andre Johnson
Dwayne Bowe
Steve Smith (CAR) (remember the 2 game suspension? I targeted him in every league)
DeAngelo Williams (guy before took JStew)
Chester Taylor (intent to trade to AD owner)
CJ4.24
Steve Slaton
Devin Hester (BUST)
Schaub (yep. Round 11 after everyone else had 2 QBs already)


Glad you're not in any of my leagues as we'd be pissing each other off with our picks, which actually happens each year with one of my buddies who drafts similarly. My draft in one league last year (pick 8 out of 10 in a 1 player keeper league)

keeper - B West
Colston
Andre
Jamal Lewis (debating between him and Steve Smith and well, guess I made the wrong move... see what happens when I deviate from my wideouts B-) )
Witten
Cotchery
D Will (cut him after week 4 or so unfortunately)

But yeah, as I said in an earlier reply in this post, I've been drafting WR heavy early in nearly all of my leagues for a few years now and have had very good success with it. As you said, when you do out the projections, at least in PPR leagues, I think it becomes that much clearer that a lot of value lies in WRs once the top 10 or so RBs have been scooped up.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Kareighuis » Mon May 18, 2009 7:14 pm

Free Bagel wrote:Here are the finishes of the top two WRs each year (I'm picking the top two based on the two best scoring WRs the year prior):

2007 - Moss and Owens (WR9 and WR10)
2006 - Harrison and Owens (WR2 and WR100)
2005 - Smith and Fitzgerald (WR8 and WR24)
2004 - Moose and Walker (WR37 and WR155)
2003 - Moss and Holt (WR19 and WR7)
2002: Harrison and Owens(WR5 and WR12)

As you can see, even if you had used your first two picks on the top two WRs each of the last 6 years you would have only ended up with a grand total of two top 5 WRs and five top 10 WRs out of those 12 picks, and you never would have ended up with WR1.


Unlike last year, when I loved AJ's and Fitz's ADP value, I agree with Kensat that "I don't like the top tier of WRs this year at all"- none of them really jump out at me. Maybe, instead of targeting the top-scoring WR, go after the one most-likely to succeed. The same thing you do with your RB1 in the first- you can't win with your first rounder, but you sure can lose it. So you play safe in the opening rounds, just trying to get on base, then swing heavier the deeper into the draft you go.

Doing this strategy forces you to-
A) find which WRs would you are likely to produce WR10 or better numbers;
B) find a slew of RBs likely available in later rounds (from 2008- Thomas Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Kevin Smith) you could grab in rounds 3-6 that would step in as your RB1, RB2 and RB3.

Whadya think of that logic/strategy?
Edit-
Instinctive wrote:what you get is a whole bunch of lottery ticket RBs with good situations, and 3-4 very strong WRs so all you need is one guy to hit and you have 5 starters.


Like the idea. I usually do the same- draft 3-4 solid, and a slew of gambles. I let the situation dictate which gambles I do- WR, or RB.

Instinctive wrote:The heavy WR drafting can definitely work, is what I'm saying, as long as you do your homework. Don't worry too much about the widely agreed uypon rankings except as predictors of who falls to you.

;-D

My team is injured wrote:though I also don't think it's quite as difficult to get RBs later as some think... the hard part is not cutting them like I did with D.Will :-P )


I had both him and JStew and needed another roster spot. I cut DAW- and faced the team that picked him up. DAW was the only reason he beat me in the championship. :-P

My team is injured wrote:As you said, when you do out the projections, at least in PPR leagues, I think it becomes that much clearer that a lot of value lies in WRs once the top 10 or so RBs have been scooped up.


One could make an argument that, with the proliferation of RBCs, you could easily find contributing RBs later in the draft, even in a non-PPR.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Instinctive » Mon May 18, 2009 7:48 pm

Good posting ^


When you manage to DO YOUR OWN tiers, in which you take however many players should score around the same number as an average, again and again, it becomes extremely evident that in PPR or nonPPR leagues, any receiver that sees a high number of targets is going to produce. Teams never NEED to run the ball, but teams often NEED to pass when they have 2 minute drives or bad defenses. When the other team is playing the Prevent defense that gives up a lot of free yards to wide receivers in waning minutes of halves, a player who runs the ball is basically out of the game.

Always look at targets and touches, and you will be able to accurately predict about who will end up at the top of their positions each year. Look at historical trends (the past 10 years of data don't lie!) and make YOUR OWN prejections and you will see where the real value lies.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue May 19, 2009 12:37 pm

My team is injured wrote:the case for pairing a WR with the RB you drafted in round 1 becomes as this projected point differential increases.

From my drafting experience in recent years, the best value almost always ends up being RB/WR/WR irrespective of where you're drafting. I just took a look through things and in my last 8 qualifying drafts over the past 3 years, I didn't draft more than 1 RB the first 3 rounds a single time and I actually went RB/WR/WR/WR once. For what it's worth, I've been first in points in most of these leagues and got the title in a number as well. It of course could simply be better overall player evaluation, a bit of luck, etc. though I think my drafting top WRs in lieu of 3rd tier RBs has played its role in my success. The top team hands down in one of my leagues this past year also went wideout heavy as he picked up WR/WR to go with his RB/WR keepers.



i have been doing this more and more, however, the only redraft i play in is a 10 team, 2 RB, 3 WR league so i put a little more emphasis on elite WR's since i can usually find a suitable #2 RB at some point. also, most of these guys arent as hard-core into FF as i am, so i take my chances on getting some sleepers at RB later on

in a deeper league or one with tougher competition or FLEX spots i'd probably be more apt to go RB/RB...really depends on the individual league, draft spot, who i think i can get with my next picks
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby My team is injured » Tue May 19, 2009 1:55 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:i have been doing this more and more, however, the only redraft i play in is a 10 team, 2 RB, 3 WR league so i put a little more emphasis on elite WR's since i can usually find a suitable #2 RB at some point. also, most of these guys arent as hard-core into FF as i am, so i take my chances on getting some sleepers at RB later on

in a deeper league or one with tougher competition or FLEX spots i'd probably be more apt to go RB/RB...really depends on the individual league, draft spot, who i think i can get with my next picks


I think this WR early strategy actually benefits from leagues with flex spots, at least in PPR scoring. If you say, have 2 RB, 2/3 WR spots, and a flex spot, it presents a stronger case for targetting 2 or even 3 WRs early before grabbing a 2nd RB as you can start all of the wideouts in your weekly lineup and the WRs available in rounds 2-4 have substantially higher point projections than the RB counterparts in these rounds. I did just this 2 years ago (much to the chagrin of the guy drafting after me who figured I wouldn't draft a 3rd WR) when I drafted housh in round 4 after having drafted b west, holt, and roy williams as I saw too much value in housh still being there and I figured I'd plug him into my flex spot.

And I agree to an extent on the competition of the league dictating the value of RBs you can get later in the draft, but I think there are still enough upside RBs and RBBCs out there to get a decent collection of RBs later in drafts, even in competitive leagues.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Azrael » Tue May 19, 2009 2:14 pm

Another thing I like to do is compare my sheets with "national averages" that most guys will walk into a draft with. I am probably the only guy in any of my leagues that will construct my own cheat sheets. If I see a disparity between where I have a guy ranked and where most people do and he's much higher on my sheet that tells me I can wait on him a little bit longer. Or if I am confident that a QB will be an adequate fantasy starter and he's available in late single digit or even double digit rounds that means I can afford to stock up elsewhere or even reach for guys I like that may or may not be there in a following round.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby wickerkat » Tue May 19, 2009 5:02 pm

for an inaugural dynasty league, would you draft RBs even MORE than wrs? i imagine most would say you should go after rb/rb in a dynasty, even 1 ppr, over wr/wr - i have the #9 slot, and had toyed with going wr/wr, but most likely i should go rb/wr or rb/rb

thoughts?
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby Instinctive » Tue May 19, 2009 6:00 pm

wickerkat wrote:for an inaugural dynasty league, would you draft RBs even MORE than wrs? i imagine most would say you should go after rb/rb in a dynasty, even 1 ppr, over wr/wr - i have the #9 slot, and had toyed with going wr/wr, but most likely i should go rb/wr or rb/rb

thoughts?


Get a strong young guy, one of the top RBs, with your first pick.

Then I would go WR heavy drafting because in a Dynasty the WRs are the guys who stay with you and consistently produce at a high level, where the shelf life of a solid RB2 is probably going to be around 3 years a la Rudi Johnson. This means that kind of player can be had later, past round 4 at least, after you have 2/3 (depending on PPR/Flex) WRs and a great QB (longevity and stability at position a huge plus)

Then, after round 5 or 6, go heavy on young and talented RBs. Only need a couple to pan out.....mix in young blood at WR in case one of your stud WRs is older.
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby wickerkat » Tue May 19, 2009 8:55 pm

Instinctive wrote:
wickerkat wrote:for an inaugural dynasty league, would you draft RBs even MORE than wrs? i imagine most would say you should go after rb/rb in a dynasty, even 1 ppr, over wr/wr - i have the #9 slot, and had toyed with going wr/wr, but most likely i should go rb/wr or rb/rb

thoughts?


Get a strong young guy, one of the top RBs, with your first pick.

Then I would go WR heavy drafting because in a Dynasty the WRs are the guys who stay with you and consistently produce at a high level, where the shelf life of a solid RB2 is probably going to be around 3 years a la Rudi Johnson. This means that kind of player can be had later, past round 4 at least, after you have 2/3 (depending on PPR/Flex) WRs and a great QB (longevity and stability at position a huge plus)

Then, after round 5 or 6, go heavy on young and talented RBs. Only need a couple to pan out.....mix in young blood at WR in case one of your stud WRs is older.


i like that advice - i could see CJ4x4 at 9, then come back at 16 with calvin/wayne/roddy and then keep after them, following down to bowe/jennings/colston/agonz/welker/desean in the 3rd/4th

anybody else feel differently?
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Re: Catch that 'WR's First' article on Rotoworld?

Postby moochman » Thu May 21, 2009 9:06 am

Free Bagel wrote:
moochman wrote:K Smith didn't have a geat statistical season last year and some may not look at finishes as much as totals in drafting.


Kevin Smith had an almost identical rookie season to Kevin Jones, who was a late 1st/early 2nd round pick the next year. Smith won't go as high as Jones did because he didn't have as much hype before his rookie season as Jones, but I think asking for him to fall to the end of the 3rd is a bit much.

moochman wrote:The important thing about using a strategy like this (or for drafting at the end of the round) is that you cannot miss on your 3-6 rnd draft picks. You won't have an AD or LT to make up for some arfing Bronco RB.


This is what I want to focus on. People wildly underestimate how often busts are drafted. I remember a few years back I did a study on the 6th round when people were arguing whether or not it was worth it to take Priest over LT knowing that you'd have to "waste" a 6th rounder on LJ to cuff him. It came out that something like 80% of 6th round picks are busts or people that don't come close to living up to their draft position. There was something similar for the 3rd round which I think fell somewhere in the 50% range.

You figure in the 3rd round you have a 50% chance of not missing on your pick, in the 4th round a 40% chance of not missing with your pick, the 5th round a 30% chance, and the 6th round a 20% chance. That means the chances that you don't miss on ANY of your 3rd-6th round picks is something like .5 * .4 * .3 * .2 = 0.012, or 1%.


So you are feeding into my arguement? If there is a higher chance to bust in rnds 3-5 then in 1-2, then wouldn't that place a premium on taking players at 12/13 who have the better chance to be elite levle scorers? The two best WRs there will give you a better chance, IMO, to be elite scorers than the 12th and 13th RBs on the board. Then drafting a starting RB in 3rd and 4th rnds would give you some production from your RB slot. Heck, depending on the draft I would even grab a top shelf TE in rnds 3-5. When you draft that late you have to try and make sure all your positions score their best. Taking a top TE will give you consistant production from that slot. So your board, if you are wise and lucky, could look like this:
WR-A+
WR-A+
RB-B-
RB-B-
TE-A+
as opposed to a conventional draft of
RB-B+
RB-B+
WR-B+
WR-B
RB-B-
(Now I am just pulling these grade out of my mug to illustrate my point. Real grading may be better or worse)
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