Blockbuster.. worth trading Turner/Mojo for Brady? WHIR

[spodavck]

very competitive dynasty league with contracts and cap, regular scoring. Can play 2 rb 2 WR or 1 rb 3 WR

I'm considering proposing a deal such as Turner/Jones-Drew plus the 1.9/2.1 draft picks for Brady and Bowe- here's my roster. Other guy has both Brady and Romo, has a ton of WR's, and is thin at RB.

QB Warner, Campbell, Leinart (don't trust Warner one bit)
RB: Turner, Jones-Drew, Johnson, Thomas Jones, McFadden, Fred Jackson
WR: Moss, Jennings, Edwards, A.Gonzo, Ginn
TE: Winslow, Davis

My logic is that without a solid QB my team is absolutely screwed as elite QBs score around 25 points on a weekly basis compared to 15-20 for rbs and 10-15 for wrs. Hence, I would be bolstering my QB corps while making my WR corps solid enough to start 3 guys on a regular basis if needed. I also think Brady has ice in his veins and would love to hang onto him for 3 years. Worth it?


thanks- Will also help anyone out- link me to your page

[mattb47]

That might be one of the worst ideas I've ever seen...two guys that are considered top 5 RBs AND 2 draft picks for a QB coming off major injury and a WR that is maybe top 10?

The error in your logic (and it is a rather large one in this case) is that for one, while the "elite" QBs score 25 points on a weekly basis, the non-elite QBs will not be far behind and the difference there will not be more than the difference of dropping from BOTH of your top RBs to just decent guys. You have a very good QB in Warner, why you wouldn't trust him I have no idea, and Campbell is a decent backup too.

I wouldn't trade Turner OR MJD straight up for any QB...much less both plus extra...this would absolutely ruin your team.

[spodavck]

My apologies, I meant Turner OR Mojo and a draft pick for Brady and Bowe- sorry for the confusion.

The main reason I don't trust Warner is because I had the gift of seeing Philadelphia and all of the other NFC east teams sack him 5+ times a game when he played for the Giants. I rode Warner hard last year in both of my leagues, and was shocked he made it through a year without a injury.

[mattb47]

Even then...you are WAY overpaying to deal a top 5 back and not get a RB back in return with it. If you're that down on Warner why not use him as part of a trade to get a different QB? I'd be a little hesitant about being overly confident in Brady coming off that knee injury...we've seen many QBs never come back the same after an injury like that to their knee (just look recently at Carson Palmer) and while he's a great player, you never know how good he'll be when he gets back.

In normal scoring (25 yds/pt and 6 pts/TD with -2 pts/INT), here are the top averages of the QBs last year:

Brees - 23.2
Rivers - 21.4
Rodgers 21.4
Cutler - 20.2
Warner - 20.1
Romo - 19.7
Manning - 19.1
Schaub - 18.4
Hill - 18.4
McNabb - 18.1
Cassel - 17.7
Thigpen - 17.2

So look at that, there were 11 QBs last season within 6 points per game of the top scorer and you have one of the higher ones in Warner. The year before that you had Brady way above (which wont happen again by the way), but the next best was Romo with 23 ppg and yet again there were another 11 QBs within 6 points per game of him.

So thinking about that...there are enough starting QBs for 12 teams to have 6 points (or much less) difference at that position per game no matter if they have an "elite" guy or not.

You'd basically be giving away the advantage you have over the other teams in this league (much stronger RBs) for possibly an increase of a point or two per game average if Brady even averages more than Warner.

[bungle613]

As MAtt has explained quite well, the diference between Warner and Brady over the next 2 years is not worth dealing a top 5 back. If you want Brady, offer the deal of Turner, Warner, Edwards for Brady, a top 12 back and Bowe (or maybe even slightly better than Bowe)

Post his roster if you don't mind.

[thriftyrocker]

PPR?

I think you are right to be worried about Warner.

But if there's no PPR, I wouldn't value Bowe too highly considering you can put a RB in his place if you keep both your RBs.

Is there any way you can get Shonne Greene or Michael Bush back, then I like the trade more. Not a top RB, but a RB who secures your depth.

I wouldn't try to hard and just take Sanchez at 1.9 if it didn't work out.

[spodavck]

non-PPR.. much thanks for the advice everyone.. prob am not going to try for brady/romo (overreaching even tho warner is liable to strain his groin while washing his car).

going to try to snag a 2nd tier QB- any recommendations? gunning for schaub but his owner is resistant. tough to get any tier 2 qbs, thats why i originally went for one of the big guys. Teams are as follows:

me: campbell, leinart, warner

1) garrard, henne, orlovsky, schaub
2) cassell, mccown, quinn, simms
3) hasselbeck, manning, ryan (wont trade ryan)
4) mcnabb, rodgers, rosenfels (wont trade mcnabb and rodgers)
5) kolb, eli, pennington, jamarcus
6) anderson, croyle, rivers
7) brees, leftwich, palmer, vince (rival, wont trade me palmer)
8) cutler, flacco, ben, troy smith
9) brady, romo, edwards, tarvaris


also for the one guy who asked- brady/romo's roster: (also has 1.2, 2.2, 3.2 draft picks, is a new owner to the league)
QB: brady, romo, edwards, tarvaris
RB: hightower, sjax, willis, deangelo
WR: bowe, coles, kelly, ocho, rice, royal, sweed, wayne
TE: gates

my roster for refreshing: (main concern is i want a solid backup QB. i have the 1.9, 2.1, 2.9, 3.9 picks, and one of my rivals has traded up to 1.7 claiming hes taking a QB)
QB warner, campbell, leinart
RB fred jax, CJ, TJ, mojo, mcfadden, burner
WR braylon, ginn, gonzo, jennings, moss
TE winslow, vernon

[Indibuck]

I think you are on the right track of wanting to upgrade your QB situation. Even if he stays healthy, Warner is not getting younger. I like that you have Leinart as well but he has shown next to nothing yet. Campbell is good as a bye-week fill-in, but I wouldn't want to count on anything more from him.

I also believe you have probably targeted the correct owner, since he has two stud QBs. But as it has been eloquently stated above, there is NO WAY you can do either of your original deals.

Since you don't have to start more than 1 WR, why don't you start there? I may look at offering Jennings and T. Jones for his Brady or Romo -- and you can negotiate from there.

Good luck!

[thriftyrocker]

I doubt you'll get Schaub since that's his best QB.

I think you could get Ben from the Cutler owner. Maybe 1.9 + Campbell for Big Ben. I would do that in a heartbeat.

[buckysGT]

I agree. I would try to get big ben. That seems like your best option from what you have told us regarding the people that won't trade with you.