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Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

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Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby mattb47 » Wed May 20, 2009 4:24 am

Alright well, I figured I'd throw these out here and see if I could get some thoughts on this. I formulated these rankings using pure projections that I calculated based upon everything from how much the team has tended to pass to how efficient the QB is with his attempts (using yards per attempt average) and adjusted based on changes in situation or personnel. I figured the best way to do these were to only have to "project" 5 things. Those were pass attempts, completion percentage, yards per attempts, and TDs/INTs. The completion percentage takes care of amount of completions and yards per attempt takes care of projecting yardage which I was hoping kept the projections as accurate as possible.

I did the projections "blind" without knowing how much fantasy points they would generate so I wouldn't be influenced at all by my own biases on where I "think" guys should be fantasy wise and this is what I came up with.

It's the first time I tried doing projections in this way and so I wanted to get some thoughts on my results. I spent a lot of time looking at everything I could for each player so any and all thoughts will be greatly appreciated.

It's also worth noting that I simply projected who I thought would be the starter over the full 16 games whether they make it through all those or not. Some guys are obviously going to move a bit based on that idea.

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Re: Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby Azrael » Wed May 20, 2009 12:51 pm

I like it. I like how you have Orton up there. I actually have him a bit higher. I see it as they are just replacing one piece in a prolific passing offense. Josh McDaniels took Cassel, a guy who hadn't started a game since HS, and made him a viable fantasy option. Orton went 18/12 last year in Chicago. I think he'll throw in the mid 20's TD wise and on the good side of 3,500 yards.

Rivers will almost certainly take a step back throwing the ball less than 500 times. His yards per attempt was ridiculous. It was even better than Brees's. I think he'll be a bit overdrafted this year. I could see his and Orton's numbers in the same range but you'll get much better value drafting Orton. Matt Ryan could also take a step forward on a great rookie year after having Gonzo added to the lineup. I'm thinking Carson Palmer here in his 2nd year starting. The reigns came off and the offense opened up. They must respect Turner running the ball.

I think if you were a guy who liked drafting QBs later, if you took Orton and Ryan in the 7th/8th rounds, something like that, you would be in good shape at QB.
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Re: Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby mattb47 » Wed May 20, 2009 1:10 pm

Yea...I was kind of surprised at how certain guys ended up actually. When you look at things like how many times you expect a certain team to throw, and therefore a certain guy to throw, and then add in how successful you think he's going to be you get different results than if you think of it just off the top of your head and you're ranking guys for fantasy purposes.

I agree about Orton...I think he'll go A LOT lower than he should and I think he could be a viable fantasy starter or at least a very good fantasy backup. They've got some firepower in Denver and you know they'll have to pass plenty with that defense...I could see him and Cutler finishing with similar fantasy lines by the end of the season but you know Cutler will go far before him.

I was somewhat surprised at how low Jake Delhomme ended up on my rankings...I was kind of thinking of him as a decent guy to play backup at QB when I drafted this year but looking deeper, he may not really throw the ball around the field enough to be viable even for that. Same with guys like Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Pennington, and even Jason Campbell...I viewed those guys all a bit higher initially than where they ended up after doing this.
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Re: Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby deacon » Wed May 20, 2009 1:45 pm

Looks pretty well organized. Thanks for the work put in..

Since it is much easier to critique the efforts of others and since you asked, here are my questions/counterpoints...

D Garrard - In standard scoring he was the 9th best QB in total fantasy pts scored last year. That was with a horrible O-line and no real weapons at WR Now with a much improved (projected) O-line and getting T. Holt he should be in a better position to excel. Granted Holt is now a dinosaur but he is still better than anything they had catching the ball last year. I think he will be more productive this season.

P. Manning - I don't expect his level of play to fall off but with a new HC and OC there is a good chance that the Colts will rely less on the passing attack. Factor in the drafting of a RB in 1st rd and a need to protect that porous defense could mean a significant reduction in Mannings pass attempts.
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Re: Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby mattb47 » Wed May 20, 2009 3:11 pm

deacon wrote:Looks pretty well organized. Thanks for the work put in..

Since it is much easier to critique the efforts of others and since you asked, here are my questions/counterpoints...

D Garrard - In standard scoring he was the 9th best QB in total fantasy pts scored last year. That was with a horrible O-line and no real weapons at WR Now with a much improved (projected) O-line and getting T. Holt he should be in a better position to excel. Granted Holt is now a dinosaur but he is still better than anything they had catching the ball last year. I think he will be more productive this season.

P. Manning - I don't expect his level of play to fall off but with a new HC and OC there is a good chance that the Colts will rely less on the passing attack. Factor in the drafting of a RB in 1st rd and a need to protect that porous defense could mean a significant reduction in Mannings pass attempts.


Well, the big problem with Garrard is that it's very unlikely that he'll attempt that many passes again. Jacksonville wants to run and if they're able to do that with their defense holding up better then they will...Garrard wasn't terribly effective throwing the ball as many times as he did last year (535 attempts, just 15 TDs and 13 INTs with his ypa dropping from 7.7 to 6.8). Holt may help slightly, but I'd be surprised if he reached well over 500 attempts again as 2 years ago he only attempted 325 passes in 12 games which put him on pace for about 430. The 500 I projected him for might even end up being high and I never see him as a big time TD guy or anything.

In the scoring I'm using he was #11 last year among QBs anyway. I'm using the 25 yds/pt and 6 pts/TD.

I don't see the change in head coach or coordinator affecting anything of the sort as far as their playcalling goes from a run vs. pass standpoint. The Colts have passed over 550 times for 2 of the past 3 seasons and the other season it was at 515 for Peyton which means that any guesstimate between 525-550 is probably a reasonable amount to assume he'll throw the ball this season regardless of the coaching change. A few less attempts wouldn't really change his production all that much anyway either so I don't know that it really makes a difference either way.
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Re: Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby Free Bagel » Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

I think Shaun Hill is being very undervalued this year. I know we're all hearing that SF wants to run the ball more this year, but a lot of the guys ahead of him (Campbell, Flacco, Pennington, Edwards) are ALREADY in running offenses.

I know extrapolating is dangerous ground, but in his half-season last year Hill was on pace to finish with around the same fantasy totals as guys like Rodgers and Cutler, and with more points than guys like Mcnabb and Romo. Does anyone really see that kind of upside in a guy like Campbell or Pennington?

Also, Roethlisberger as a QB1 is way overvalued IMHO. He's been a bad fantasy player in 4 of his 5 years in the league. At this point, I'd maybe consider him as a low-end backup QB, so to have him listed in starter territory is way too high for me. Here are where he's finished in his 5 years in the league.
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Re: Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby mattb47 » Wed May 20, 2009 4:25 pm

Free Bagel wrote:I think Shaun Hill is being very undervalued this year. I know we're all hearing that SF wants to run the ball more this year, but a lot of the guys ahead of him (Campbell, Flacco, Pennington, Edwards) are ALREADY in running offenses.

I know extrapolating is dangerous ground, but in his half-season last year Hill was on pace to finish with around the same fantasy totals as guys like Rodgers and Cutler, and with more points than guys like Mcnabb and Romo. Does anyone really see that kind of upside in a guy like Campbell or Pennington?

Also, Roethlisberger as a QB1 is way overvalued IMHO. He's been a bad fantasy player in 4 of his 5 years in the league. At this point, I'd maybe consider him as a low-end backup QB, so to have him listed in starter territory is way too high for me. Here are where he's finished in his 5 years in the league.


It's possible I think that Hill could end up being better than that...but as far as the combination of situation, being on a team that is going to be run focused, and what I see as how talented he really is that's how I ended up having it be. I've watched him a little (can't claim a lot) and while he was solid, I don't see him as a guy that is going to put up huge numbers. Extrapolation NEVER works out like it "looks" like it would. He's a guy you can get in the late rounds of drafts anyway so if you're going to take a chance on him it won't be tough to do. I wouldn't say he's ranked "lower" than the guys like Pennington, Campbell, and Flacco...if you look at their totals they are all essentially pretty equal as far as this goes but I would say that he has the highest upside of the guys in that tier.

Edwards is on a more run focused team but Lynch has had some legal trouble and with the addition of Owens they know have the pieces to air it out just a bit more and I think they will. Buffalo is much less a running team than teams like Baltimore, Washington, and even San Francisco will be for this upcoming season I think. San Francisco really didn't pass the ball a ton even last year with Mike Martz so thinking they'll pass as much this season is not a great prediction in my opinion.

Roethlisberger is a tough one to pin down...the biggest thing for me that had him improving a bit on his TDs/INTs and such which is the biggest thing that moves him around in the tiers is that he's going from playing one of the harder schedules in NFL history to a very weak schedule this season. I don't think I would want to take him as a QB1 personally, he just doesn't put up big numbers from week to week but 20+ TDs isn't a crazy high prediction for him in a weaker schedule I don't think.

One thing to keep in mind is that I didn't adjust these in any way when I was putting them in ranking wise or even tier wise...I tried to use natural breaks in the fantasy totals to create the tiers for me based on what the totals ended up being.
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Re: Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby Kareighuis » Wed May 20, 2009 5:22 pm

Focusing first of the methodology- Love it. ;-D Pure, total, objectivity.

However, I disagree with the end result, which is a way of saying I disagree with the numbers entered.

I don't see Romo outputing that much- significant decrease in air-attack potency, growing ground strength. Guess this is the year we learn how good an OC Garrett is.

Campbell has had a new offensive system the last 7 years, stretching into college. Finally, he gets continuity. On top of that, he's gotten pissed about nearly being traded, only for the deal to fall through and the franchise/owner to play kiss-and-makeup- only to attempt to trade him again.

Agree with Bagel about Big Ben's overrated-ness.

I have no opinion about him, but kinda surprised Palmer's ranked so low.

Severely disagree with the Hass spot. You acknowledge his "upside", but don't shift him up accordingly. He's at least above Flacco's, probably Edwards, possibly Garrard, maybe even Schaub.
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Re: Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby dmacblue » Wed May 20, 2009 5:56 pm

Firstly, thanks so much for putting the time in to creat ehtis excellent list Matt,...and for sharing it with us ;-D

I'm rushing out the door, but real qucik;

I like how you havent immediately inserted Brady back at #1
I think Romo could be steal at QB9.

Eli and Palmer could be late end gold....

Dang, wife is honking the horn,,,I gotta go....back later, lots to say about this great article.
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Kudos to the uberdesigner 'soty' for the sig!
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Re: Mattb47's 2009 QB Projections/Rankings

Postby mattb47 » Wed May 20, 2009 6:58 pm

Kareighuis wrote:Focusing first of the methodology- Love it. ;-D Pure, total, objectivity.

However, I disagree with the end result, which is a way of saying I disagree with the numbers entered.

I don't see Romo outputing that much- significant decrease in air-attack potency, growing ground strength. Guess this is the year we learn how good an OC Garrett is.

Campbell has had a new offensive system the last 7 years, stretching into college. Finally, he gets continuity. On top of that, he's gotten pissed about nearly being traded, only for the deal to fall through and the franchise/owner to play kiss-and-makeup- only to attempt to trade him again.

Agree with Bagel about Big Ben's overrated-ness.

I have no opinion about him, but kinda surprised Palmer's ranked so low.

Severely disagree with the Hass spot. You acknowledge his "upside", but don't shift him up accordingly. He's at least above Flacco's, probably Edwards, possibly Garrard, maybe even Schaub.


As I've said a few times now...I didn't adjust ANYONE based on my own personal opinions of upside vs. downside or anything like that other than what is already reflected in their projected numbers which I tried to do my best to keep personal bias out of. Hasselbeck has had trouble staying healthy and he's getting up there in age, I don't have any problem where he is currently because I think he's a guy with low value and the potential to just be somewhat relevant which shouldn't make a big impact fantasy wise.

I think Romo is an odd one to guesstimate for...was one of the tougher ones to be honest in my inputting of his potential statistics for this season but here was my thinking behind what decisions I made. The loss of Owens is a big hit to his production I think...he may not have used him as much as he could have but you don't lose a guy who is a perennial 1000+ yard receiver and 10+ TD guy without it making some sort of impact. I didn't really have a huge drop in his production either...his yardage and things are about right on if he passes the ball fewer times than he would have last year, which I think he would and I even have his completion percentage being higher than it was last year. The only drop I have there is in his TDs/INTs. I have him with fewer TDs this year but also fewer INTs than he normally tosses which ends up balancing a bit but not completely. I think we'll see him in the 24-28 TD range at the most quite honestly...I don't like their current receiving corps as much and I don't see him being "elite" this year. He'll probably still be overdrafted to where his value is though...he won't go as the 7-9th QB off the board...he'll probably be taken top 5.

We'll see about Campbell...I haven't been overly impressed with him and his numbers don't suggest in the least that he'll be a great fantasy option. The combination of that and that the Skins will still be a team that wants to run the ball and I don't know that he'll be anything but a decent backup option.
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