I think the development of Matt Ryan this year is going to change the entire look of the Atlanta offense. Using last season as a base is going to be extremely difficult to project numbers IMO. Roddy White put stud numbers last year with a rookie QB (granted that rookie didn't LOOK like a rookie). I think this guy is a top5 WR going forward, similar to and yet slightly better than Chad Johnson circa 2005. Tony Gonzalez gives Ryan a threat at TE that most guys will never have. Even having to learn a new system, I think Gonzalez has a shot at 1,000 and maybe even double digit TDS. Just look at the types of plays Gonzalez can make with unfamiliar QBs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUEGgi-xUME
Matt Ryan can make that play all day long. And even a marginal like Michael Jenkins can get open on a route like that on most plays. The difficult in completing those passes is putting it on the money past the defender but in reach of the receiver. You're going to see a lot of Tony Gonzalez running down the field and then either cutting out or continuing up. It's very tough to double a versatile guy like Tony Gonzalez on those types of routes where he doesn't even choose the route until after the ball is snapped.
To put it simply, I think Matt Ryan is going to pass the ball more and do a lot more with it in yardage and touchdowns. A lot of that has to do with Tony Gonzalez and a lot of it will be his maturity at a QB and the coaching staff willing to put the ball in the guys hands. Contrary to popular opinion, Michael Turner is a boom and bust runner that is going to go down for a lot of 2-3 yard gains, and it is difficult for Atlanta to move the ball even in his talented hands if all they want to do is run it. I think we will see Turner fall down into the 320-340 range of carries and see more of Norwood on the field as a pass receiver as they expand the playbook and let Ryan take more control. At the same time, even with less touches, the quality of the touches are going to be that much better for Michael Turner. I would look for increased YPC from both Turner and Norwood and similar opportunities at TDs for both of them (More overall opportunities with a smaller percentage going to RBs). Think the New York Jets last year and how much their RBs improved with Favre at the QB position versus Clemens from the year before. The touches were down, but the touches were much higher quality touches.
I see Turner at somewhere close to 1600/14 total production (lack of receptions keeps his yardage down) and Norwood at maybe 1000/5. I think Turner is being picked at the top of the draft for his relative stability and predictability rather than his pure upside. It's very tough to predict this guy at true stud numbers like 2000/20, but solid RB#1 numbers for him almost look like a floor. His range is small, but it is at a very good level of production. Think a much more talented and productive Rudi Johnson.