Who is the #10 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts? You are voting on who will have the best fantasy football production in the NFL over the next 5 or 6 years with the team on which the player was just drafted, NOT who will have the best year in 2009. Assume standard scoring (1 pt. per 10 yards rushing / receiving, and no PPR) Also please assume that you have a balanced roster and don't have a great specific need for a QB, WR, etc.
Feel free to discuss the pros and cons of these players - this could be helpful for some and generate some good discussion. If you'd like to vote for a player NOT on this list, then please vote "other" and make a post to discuss the player. This will serve as a write-in vote for that player.
I like Rashad Jennings here. Early reports out of Jags OTA's are touting him as a very good runner. Wouldn't surprise me to see him pick up 15-20% of the carries on a run heavy team to spell MJD. In the event that MJD goes down to injury, this guy would be a must have RB. Andre Brown is in a much more crowded situation with the Giants where Bradshaw and Ware are both ahead of him, and probably will remain ahead, on the depth chart.
Kenny Britt should be up there with the Maclin, Harvin, and Nicks of the world IMO. The guy has a wide open path to the #1 WR spot in Tennessee and he has the talent to do something with it IMO. This guy is getting all kinds of help from former pro WRs to elevate his game quickly, similar to what Eddie Royal got last season.
I could easily see Britt as the #1 most productive rookie WR this year. And for dynasty leagues and especially the WR position, I think you draft talent more so than situation. A guy like Braylon Edwards broke out 2 years ago with complete garbage at QB. Meanwhile another guy that was highly regarded got drafted to Tom Brady's Patriots is now pretty much out of the league. Situation matters moreso for RBs than it does for WRs IMO. And although there might be some Marion Barbers, MJDS, Michael Turners in this years class of RBs, I don't see a guy who can make an immediate impact this year and massively boost his value. Why not spend an early pick on the WR that you can't replicate later in the draft and then pick up a lot of bargain RBs in the later rounds or even in FA. Sure guys like Robiskie and Hayward-Bey are out there, but I don't those two guys are as blue chip as a guy like Britt.
And are guys like Bernard Scott, Javon Ringer, James Davis, etc. that far behind guys like Andre Brown and Reshad Jennings? Even a guy like Tyrell Sutton may end up being the best out of the bunch. None of these guys have a legit chance to start in year 1, and some of these guys don't even have a legit shot to be #2 on the depth chart. We just don't know who is going to get an opportunity at early production out of these guys and a lot of them have just average talent in a somewhat weak class of RBs. Andre Brown may end up being better than the bunch, but he also maybe another Chris Henry in Tennessee lost to the depth chart behind better players. I just don't see reaching for a guy in that kind of situation he landed in. Guy is a potential #3 RB (Bradshaw) for the next several years and is a #2 at best with Jacobs just signed to a learn term deal. Even a rock solid #2 in Marion Barber could be had extremely cheaply in after his rookie year and even then it took antoher couple of years before he reached his peak value. Barber was underrated in his rookie drafts and that guy landed in a much better situation with less competition IMO. If you believe in Brown, I have no problem drafting him here, but I think the value is still at WR. At this pointin the draft, the RBs are developmental players just as much as the WRs. It's all personal preference at this point, but I believe you gotta go with the talent IMO. This class was strong at WR not RB or QB.
Three votes for Stafford, but no defense of the pick yet on here. I will do my best ...
I know RBs are king, and all of these guys have upside. But the key here for me is opportunity. Who knows if any of these RBs will ever get it? Stafford is going to be the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions for the next several years -- at least, he will get the chance to be the starter. Plus he has the best young wide receiver in the league on his side and a young runner with promise. There is hope on that offense, and I would much rather have a guy who is going to start than one who needs the guy in front of him to falter/get hurt.
I liked Kensat's and Mikus' argument. The way I see it, it comes down to: A) potentially best WR on a conservative offense with a game manager at QB; B) a QB who may not get starts for a year or two who has a weak o-line in front of him and a defensive head coach (this last point or two doesn't affect long term prospects, but does impact half of the 5-6 year projection); C) young RB with a good o-line who, based on playing style, is a better backup for an injury-prone starter than the speed back currently seen as the #2.
Brown. I haven't seen him, but have heard good things around the cafe.
The Why nots: Rashard Jennings: Greg Jones. One of, if not the highest paid Fullbacks in the league. Before he went down in preseason 2006 for the season he was touted to be the guy who can handle the rock in Jacksonville (pre-mjd era). With Taylor out, he will get a chance to be a Thunder back with touches, Jennings won't have a shou in.
DHB: Raiders. Why risk a player on the raiders instead of an RB? I can't think of a reason at this point in the draft.
Kenny Britt: my next pick. I like what I've read, but Tennesse WRs just never seem to catch on...
Strafford: Still don't think QB is value yet unless in desperate need.
I gotta give Britt some love too, it's hard to gauge him, could he be another big WR that doesn't pan out(you think anybody who took Thomas, Sweed, or Hardy late 1st last year wouldn't rather have Jackson, Royal or Avery?) or is he another TO clone.
I tend to think it's more of the latter, he has this gene that you can't develop and it's hard for me to describe what it is, but he wants the ball in crunch time, he's pissed off if he doesn't get the ball when they need to make a play, he'll put his team on his back to make a big play, I just love those little things about him that you really can't measure.
He's got a mean streak, some people think he's a diva or cocky but that's what I like, he probably feels like he's the best WR in this class and he'll go play like it...I do have to admit that he's a risk where he falls, because I'd have to REALLY need a WR to take him, I almost like putting the risk on RB's to pan out and I'll just make an offer on a rookie WR later in the year.
Usually you can get those guys cheaper after a slow start or a rookie year that's not very productive ie James Hardy & Limas Sweed, but I love Britt's upside...The offense doesn't scare me because he'll be the only WR worth anything and with his big frame he'll rack up plenty of receptions for them, I'm expecting contributions this year also.
I just realized the more in-depth I looked at the rookie WR's is that this is a very large group that will produce alot of good players from it, and quite a bit of bust too, there will be some bust with the early picks and some late surprises as always, I'd just rather not bother with the headache this year so I think I'll make my offers for the WR's once the season starts.
Britt though, wouldn't surprise me to be the best WR from this class in 3 years, in fact he'd be my leading candidate if I was forced to answer that today, he fits in perfectly with Tennessee and Jeff Fisher.
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