which 2 would you keep? WHIR

[spodavck]

I'd go Roddy (a steal!) and Pierre for best value.

Here's my guess at what rounds each is valued in for a 10 team league:

Fitzgerald (2) ~~ 1st/2nd
Boldin(3) ~~ 3rd
Bush (4) ~~5th
Roddy White (6) ~~ 3rd
Pierre Thomas (8) ~~ 4th
A.Bryant (8) ~~ 5th/6th

In your league Fitz would probably go right at the turn if he was thrown back, so you're not gaining much there, whereas keeping Roddy and Pierre is somewhat like having extra picks in rounds 3 and 4 (minus 2 later round picks). You may even get Fitz back with the #13 pick if you're lucky. Depends if you value the gain from the 13th overall pick to the 10th overall vs the gain from the 8th round to the 4th.

I think that this is excellent analysis -- you have to weigh value as well as talent and potential production.

I too would keep Thomas and White. And I would still take BPA at 8 and 13.

OK, it is a small keeper but you have 20 players being kept and he is drafting 8th. Very, very little chance that Fitz will be available at pick 28. Keep him.

I think he would take Fitz at 13, not 28, but regardless there's a very good chance Fitz would go before #13.

Roddy for sure is a must-keep, it comes down to whether you trust PT to put up solid value or not. Even if PT is a borderline RB2, getting him in the 8th round is solid. Worst comes to worst, Fitz is off the board- you should still be able to get a solid WR1 with your #13 pick

[bungle613]

But his 8th pick is actually 28th overall as 20 players are kept. He still keeps that if he keeps Fitz but loses the 33rd pick. There is zero chance he can get a surefire player like Fitz at 33 overall.

In a small keeper it is not really about value, it is about keeping players you don't have to think about. Fitz is the only one of those he has on his roster.

Here are the top 20 picks in a PPR mock here at the cafe.

1.01 Adrian Peterson - RB, MIN
1.02 Matt Forte - RB, CHI
1.03 Michael Turner - RB, ATL
1.04 Maurice Jones-Drew - RB, JAC
1.05 Steven Jackson - RB, STL
1.06 LaDainian Tomlinson - RB, SD
1.07 Brian Westbrook - RB, PHI
1.08 Marion Barber - RB, DAL
1.09 Chris Johnson - RB, TEN
1.10 Larry Fitzgerald - WR, AZ
1.11 Frank Gore - RB, SF
1.12 DeAngelo Williams - RB, CAR

Round 2

2.01 Steve Slaton - RB, HOU
2.02 Marshawn Lynch - RB, BUF
2.03 Clinton Portis - RB, WAS
2.04 Andre Johnson - WR, HOU
2.05 Randy Moss - WR, NE
2.06 Brandon Jacobs - RB, NYG
2.07 Reggie Wayne - WR, IND
2.08 Calvin Johnson - WR, DET


Welker went at 28 and R. Bush went at 33. While I don't disagree that Pierre is good value as an 8th rounder (said that in my first post) when you are keeping only 2, you are keeping the best possible 2. There is a good chance Pierre produces as a solid RB2 but also a chance he is just an RB3.

[nateb]

I would keep Thomas and White. You only lose a 6 and an 8. Thomas and White are both going around the 3rd round so that's great value in keeping those two.

Or you could keep White and Fitz and then just focus on RB with your first two picks.

I would definitely keep White.

[LegendoftheFall]

i agree with everyone who says Fitz probably wont be there at #8 or #13, BUT i think there's a good chance that i could get an equal WR like AJ or Moss . So if i value them the same, but kept Fitz. im wasting a keeper on Fitz, where i could have had Pierre basically for nothing in the 8th. Considering i could probably pick up some solid RB depth in rounds 1-5, Pierre would be a very good #3 RB at worst.
keep in mind 20 players are off the board (but not necessarily the best 20 talents because they can only be kept once)
if i keep Fitz and Boldin:
Rnd1=Barber/Lynch type RB
Rnd 2=Fitz
Rnd 3=maybe a Reggie Bush or something similar
Rnd 4=Probably could get Pierre here
Rnd 5=best available WR (probaby a coles, santana moss type)
Rnd 6=Roddy White

or...
Keep Roddy, Pierre
Rnd1=Barber or lynch type RB
Rnd 2=whatever is left between Fitz, Moss, AJ
rnd3=best available player WR or RB (maybe Bush, maybe a welker)
rnd 4=best available wr or rb
rnd5=best available
rnd 6=Roddy
rnd 7=best available
rnd 8=pierre

i think by keeping pierre, roddy it gives me alot more options in teh draft so i dont HAVE to draft whatever RBs are available but can get best value available, and i think i end up with more talent in scenario 2. Any thoughts?

thanks for everybody's time on this...

[LegendoftheFall]

Boldin at the end of round 3 might give me the best of both worlds, (my top 2 draft picks, and solid talent as a keeper)
just waiting to see what happens with him.

[kingfisch]

I say at first glance go with White and Thomas and you can definately pick up great talent in the first 5 rounds and be stacked. You have to go with value!

[bungle613]

i agree with everyone who says Fitz probably wont be there at #8 or #13, BUT i think there's a good chance that i could get an equal WR like AJ or Moss . So if i value them the same, but kept Fitz. im wasting a keeper on Fitz, where i could have had Pierre basically for nothing in the 8th. Considering i could probably pick up some solid RB depth in rounds 1-5, Pierre would be a very good #3 RB at worst.
keep in mind 20 players are off the board (but not necessarily the best 20 talents because they can only be kept once)
if i keep Fitz and Boldin:
Rnd1=Barber/Lynch type RB
Rnd 2=Fitz
Rnd 3=maybe a Reggie Bush or something similar
Rnd 4=Probably could get Pierre here
Rnd 5=best available WR (probaby a coles, santana moss type)
Rnd 6=Roddy White

or...
Keep Roddy, Pierre
Rnd1=Barber or lynch type RB
Rnd 2=whatever is left between Fitz, Moss, AJ
rnd3=best available player WR or RB (maybe Bush, maybe a welker)
rnd 4=best available wr or rb
rnd5=best available
rnd 6=Roddy
rnd 7=best available
rnd 8=pierre

i think by keeping pierre, roddy it gives me alot more options in teh draft so i dont HAVE to draft whatever RBs are available but can get best value available, and i think i end up with more talent in scenario 2. Any thoughts?

thanks for everybody's time on this...

I just don't think you will get an AJ, Moss or Fitz at #33 overall. Their current ADP in non PPR mocks is Fitz at #9, AJ at #11 and Moss at #13.

Fitz will go before your first round pick.

[Indibuck]

i agree with everyone who says Fitz probably wont be there at #8 or #13, BUT i think there's a good chance that i could get an equal WR like AJ or Moss . So if i value them the same, but kept Fitz. im wasting a keeper on Fitz, where i could have had Pierre basically for nothing in the 8th. Considering i could probably pick up some solid RB depth in rounds 1-5, Pierre would be a very good #3 RB at worst.
keep in mind 20 players are off the board (but not necessarily the best 20 talents because they can only be kept once)
if i keep Fitz and Boldin:
Rnd1=Barber/Lynch type RB
Rnd 2=Fitz
Rnd 3=maybe a Reggie Bush or something similar
Rnd 4=Probably could get Pierre here
Rnd 5=best available WR (probaby a coles, santana moss type)
Rnd 6=Roddy White

or...
Keep Roddy, Pierre
Rnd1=Barber or lynch type RB
Rnd 2=whatever is left between Fitz, Moss, AJ
rnd3=best available player WR or RB (maybe Bush, maybe a welker)
rnd 4=best available wr or rb
rnd5=best available
rnd 6=Roddy
rnd 7=best available
rnd 8=pierre

i think by keeping pierre, roddy it gives me alot more options in teh draft so i dont HAVE to draft whatever RBs are available but can get best value available, and i think i end up with more talent in scenario 2. Any thoughts?

thanks for everybody's time on this...

I just don't think you will get an AJ, Moss or Fitz at #33 overall. Their current ADP in non PPR mocks is Fitz at #9, AJ at #11 and Moss at #13.

Fitz will go before your first round pick.

I would normally agree with you Bungle, but look at the original post and who is going to be available.... quite a few STUD RBs and WRs. Obviously the best will be picked over by the 1.8 pick, but I don't see where he CAN"T get a player like a Moss/AJ/Fitz at 1.8 with who is available. That's why it doesn't make a lot of sense value-wise to keep Fitz. Looking at who is available, there is a chance an RB1 may be available at that pick.



edit -- here is from the original post --

"i think i'll be drafting #8, snake draft so #13 on the way back.Remember 20 players will be kept, but not always the best 20, because we can only keep players once. (top available talent in the draft is:AP, Turner, Westbrook, Gore, SJax, Barber, Portis, Lynch,Manning, Brees, Moss, AJ, Fitz(?)"


To be honest, Fitz may be a worst case scenario pick.

[bungle613]

I forgot the detials of the original post but still stand by my post. From that list, who I would take above Fitz are

AD
Turner
Westy
Gore
SJax
Portis

then Fitz

then

AJ
Moss
Barber
Brees
Manning
Lynch

So, purely based on my list (which you may or may bot agree with) at 1.08 he would get AJ. Maybe a downgrade, maybe not and then at 2.03 he would grab Lynch.

Now if he keeps Fitz, he loses 2.03 but at 1.08 Moss or Barber.

So after 2 rounds he can have either

AJ, Lynch, White, Pierre

or

Fitz, Moss, White and his 8th.

Team 1 huge risk... team 2 if he starts 3 WR... dominant WR and could really be in the smae boat as team 1 scrambling for RB's.

[Indibuck]

I agree with how you ranked the players. But a few more points to consider:

I would guess that of the first 7 owners, at least several will be keeping 2 RBs, meaning the likelihood of them taking a WR with their first pick goes up. if that is the case, then Legend has an opportunity to take a SJax/Portis with that 1.8 pick.

And again, worst case scenario, he gets a Fitz/AJ/Moss. You say maybe a downgrade, I say not... like you pointed out there is only a 4 or 5 spot difference in ADP between all 3. So unless you REALLY like one WR over the other two, it's really kind of splitting hairs.

Either way, Legend has a CHOICE at that 1.8 spot on whom to select -- either best available RB of the "big 6" that are available, or a stud WR. And again at 13, there will be some tasty players available as well.

Legend acknowledged that he is not counting on Thomas to be a RB1 or even an RB2 -- but he sure makes for a hell of an RB3. And only giving up an 8th round pick for your RB3 (or even RB4 depending on how the draft goes) is great value.

And one last thing he mentioned in the details (it's all about the details! ), players can only be kept once. So the top-notch player he is getting at 1.08 will be eligible to be kept, whereas if he keeps Fitz, it's the last year he will have him.