It's all about 'positional scarcity.' Just how rare that talent is according to the other positions.
Try tiering your positions based on those projected stats and cut them off every significant drop off. Then you can tell which position you should jump up and grab based on if you think there will be comparable guy at that same position still left at your next pick.
That's a very basic run down of what I do... but all these guys got some great philosophies too. That's why I love me some Cafe
What puzzles me is that Randy Moss is often the 3rd or 4th WR off the board and the guy had 11 TDs with Matt Cassel throwing him the ball...1,300 yards and 16 scores is virtually a lock. I'm not worried about Brady AT ALL. Palmer tore up his knee in Jan 2006 and came back that fall and scored almost identical fantasy points. The other big guy that's also slipping that I'm liking is Boldin. I for one am willing to take the risk. I view him the same way I viewed Andre3000 last year, the reward is well worth the risk to me. The man is an absolute terror.
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You might get Donovan McNabb in the 7th round of your draft, but there is no way in hell you are getting Frank Gore there. Positional scarcity applies to all leagues regardless of scoring format, assuming the starting lineup requirements are even close to what you would consider standard (1/2/3/1/1/1).
If you were in a league where the top kicker projects as the #25 point scorer, does that mean you draft him in the 3rd round?
And anyways, PPR leagues generally increase WR/TE values and actually decrease QB values. QBs are the only position that doesn't catch passes at all. Even ignoring scarcity factors, QB value will go down relative to the other positions in PPR leagues.
If any position is underrated in PPR it is the WR position. In a start 3+ WR PPR league, a team with an elite group of WRs paired with average RBs can trump a team with 2 stud RBS and average WRs.
Unless those 2 stud RBs are great pass catchers that is like an LT/Westbrook duo or something (actually possible this year with what I've been seeing rankings wise). It's all about taking what's there for you...and I don't know that there are a ton of leagues that start 3+ WRs anymore...the standard seems to be more like 2 RB, 2 WR, and 1 RB/WR now...the time when 2 RB, 3 WR leagues were standard is past I think.
Did some more crunching using scarcity, playing time, injury risk, schedule etc.. and made my own rank below instead of just going by "projected '09 fantasy points".
1-MJD 2-Matt Forte 3-ADP 4-Steven jackson 5-LT 6-Brian Westbrook 7-Clinton Portis 8-Frank Gore 9-Reggie Bush 10-Larry Fitzgerald 11-Steve Slaton 12-Chris Johnson 13-Andrew Johnson 14-Michael Turner 15-DeAngello Williams 16-Calvin Johnson 17-Marion Barber 18-Darren McFadden 19-Reggie Wayne 20-Ronnie Brown
I have the "big 3 QB's" ranked in the 20's. even though the league does not count int's, QB's are just too unpredictable to be taken within rounds 1-2 IMO.
Again, if anyone is looking at this, I based this on 7 good projection sites, then I used my owncriteria relating PT, injury risk, schedule, etc.
Discalimer: I am not responsible for you using these ranking and not winning your league.
I only posted this becasue I am a fantasy baseball guy and I ALWAYS use numbers only and it never fails me. I thought I would just use numbers only for football to see what I came up with.
Just using projected '09 fantasy points, see the first post I made.
Can you comment more on your dataset and how exactly you go about adjusting the projected stats using "scarcity, playing time, injury risk, schedule etc"?
Do you know whether or not the sites you are pulling data from have/have not already accounted for these kind of variables? You may just be exacerbating the effect of these variables by stacking it on top of the projections. I mean I don't want to rain on your parade here but I am not seeing what necessarily makes your projections more exact from anyone elses. These projections might be accurate but that might be due to your own personal judgement and understanding of the situations of players than actually being able to account for the situation in its parts. The whole is often different from the sum of its parts and I think a lot of people unconsciously apply a lot of these variables when making rankings without explicitly accounting for them and that can result in a much different perspective than if you created a strict projection model that incorporates a large volume of variables. And ultimately these numbers and applying any effects due to these variables are very subjective.
In any case, I'd be interested in hearing more about how you went about gathering your data from the different sources and applying the variables to alter the projections.
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