2009 NFC North and East team analysis - COMPLETE

[Azrael]

up for Vikes.

Cook is absolutely abysmal. Ask any Vikes fan. Herrera should start over him.

Great to hear from fans about their teams. I'm sure you guys know more than I about your own.

[spodog]

Quarterback
I wouldn’t even think about drafting Jackson or Sage.

I'm certainly not going to advocate drafting Sage Rosenfels as your QB2, however, I could easily see scenarios where this guy gets more PT this year than ever. If the Favre deal goes through, Sage seems likely to own the backup spot. If the Favre deal goes belly up, then he seems to me the be the guy with the best chance to win the job.

Last year, he was a servicable fill in for several weeks while Schaub nursed his injuries:

Week 11 @ IND: 192 yards
Week 12 @ CLE: 275 yards and a TD
Week 13 v JAX: 200 yards and a TD

If you play in a 2QB starter league, he's not a bad choice of a guy to stash on your bench, as I think he will improve with additional playing time.

[Azrael]

I'm certainly not here to argue pont for point with anyone in this thread but one of the purposes is to identify an opportunity for success in fantasy football and where that is more likely to occur in some situations than others. To do that, we need to look beyond the player himself and look more at the circumstances surrounding the player. I think that is where alot of inexperienced (not saying you are inexperience spodog) FFballers set themselves up to fail. They just see the guy and don't really examine what caused him to succeed or fail.

With Sage he's in a different situation. Nothing really against the man himself or his talent. He's now on a football team that attempted and completed 100 fewer passes than his former team in 2008.

Of course we are going to miss things and some things do not always work out according to the numbers. Once in awhile players will beat the odds or fail depsite opportunity but I think identifying opportunity is more likely to yield a calculated success than simple guess work. For example, Cam Cameron and Norv Turner have generally made RBs in their system extremely productive. Now LT was already high on the radar when Norv came to town but Frank Gore wasn't. I immediately made certain to scoop up Gore in my leagues the year Norv was highered as SF's OC. The line had also improved with the addition of Larry Allen that year and maybe 1 or 2 other acquisitions. But I digress.

[spodog]

I think that is where alot of inexperienced (not saying you are inexperience spodog) FFballers set themselves up to fail. They just see the guy and don't really examine what caused him to succeed or fail.

cute.

With Sage he's in a different situation. Nothing really against the man himself or his talent.

Yep. You're making my point for me. All I was saying in the first post was that with his new situation, Sage may be worth a look in 2QB leagues as a backup. That's hardly an endorsement. My point here is that the most likely situation that will play out is that Favre signs a deal in a few weeks. With that, I find it very likely that the Vikings move to a more balanced pass/run attack than they had last year.

Last year, the Vikes had only 452 passing attempts to 519 rushing. Teams that are that far out of whack in their pass/run balance are either wired to win only one way (like the '99 Rams or last years Cardinals team) or they are teams that are missing key talent and trying to overcome it.

The '08 Vikings are definitely in that 2nd category. They had no QB worthy of being an NFL starting QB last year, except possibly Ferotte, and he was way past his prime, which wasn't much of a prime. So what did they do, they pounded Petersen into the ground.

They won't do that again this year. I think you have cause and effect turned around. The Vikings were near the bottom of the league in passing because they were inept, it was not by design. Historically, the Vikings have been a pass first team, and I'd predict they will return to that mentality once Favre signs.

I also find it very likely that Favre does not make it through a 16 game schedule. 40 year old's rarely do. Once the playbook is set, however, it is much tougher to turn on a dime, so I think the likelihood of Sage stepping into a ready made balanced pass/run attack are pretty good this year.

So, my conclusion is that the 2009 Sage Rosenfels is a much BETTER gamble than the 2008 Sage Rosenfels would have been down in the Tier 4 or Tier 5 fantasy QB area. I fully expect his numbers to be BETTER than last year AND I do NOT expect the Vikings to be a one dimensional offense like they were in '08, which is what produced the passing stats that you cited.

Of course we are going to miss things and some things do not always work out according to the numbers. Once in awhile players will beat the odds or fail depsite opportunity but I think identifying opportunity is more likely to yield a calculated success than simple guess work. For example, Cam Cameron and Norv Turner have generally made RBs in their system extremely productive. Now LT was already high on the radar when Norv came to town but Frank Gore wasn't. I immediately made certain to scoop up Gore in my leagues the year Norv was highered as SF's OC. The line had also improved with the addition of Larry Allen that year and maybe 1 or 2 other acquisitions.

Huh? Was this supposed to be in a different thread?

In any event, thanks for putting these summaries together. It is a lot of work, and a good contribution to the Cafe.

[Kensat30]

If Favre comes to Minnesota, I think writing off Berrian could be a big mistake. Clearly the guy is talented based on what he did last season with the garbage they had throwing the ball. And also its clear at this point that Favre was dealing with an injury at the end of last year that hampered his accuracy.

What isn't readily apparent is that Cotchery, and not Brett Favre, is the reason why Cotchery sucked last year. Game after game Cotchery gave up on routes, didn't contest passes, and lost battles out there on the field. Favre is the guy who is going to put it up there and let the WR make a play on the ball, but Cotchery just couldn't do that. The guy turned out to be weaker and slower than we all thought and provided the bare minimum of plays that a starting WR should make. At least Laverneous Coles had the route running ability and the agility to run around people and get open to make plays, we saw none of that from Cotchery.

I think a guy like Berrian who specializes in the long ball will find himself a recipient of some big plays with a healthy Favre throwing to him in a comfortable offense. Adrian Peterson and even Chestor Taylor brings a dimenion to that running game that Thomas Jones simply couldn't. If Favre comes in, we have to assume that the shoulder is cleared and he is ready to go. The offense is taylor made for the guy, the talent upfront and behind him are unbelievable and Berrian should be the major beneficiary. The only wildcard in the situation (assuming Favre) is if Percy Harvin turns into the next day 1 stud and seizes the WR1 role.

[Azrael]

I'm confused. In your "Lance Moore" thread you call "guys like Berrian and Crabtree complete gambles" but now say writing him off could be a big mistake.

[Kareighuis]

I'm confused. In your "Lance Moore" thread you call "guys like Berrian and Crabtree complete gambles" but now say writing him off could be a big mistake.

I don't remember when he said that about Berrian and Crabtree in that thread, but I think it makes sense to say "writing off a complete gamble could be a big mistake". Though, I wouldn't characterize either of them as complete gambles... maybe more like incomplete?

[Kensat30]

I'm confused. In your "Lance Moore" thread you call "guys like Berrian and Crabtree complete gambles" but now say writing him off could be a big mistake.

We don't know that Favre will become a Viking yet.

And all I'm saying here is that you don't want to use Cotchery as a guide for what Berrian can do if Favre becomes QB. Even with garbage at QB the past couple of seasons, Berrian has been out there making plays. Put a QB out there that is willing to get him the ball and I think a strong connection can be made there. Seems to me like you were prematurely writing off the guy based on what he did last year, but the situation becomes an entirely new beast if Favre comes in.

If Favre isn't a difference maker, there is no way we see a chump like Thomas Jones lead the AFC in rushing last year and put up top5ish fantasy numbers. Laverneous Coles showed that he had a little little in the tank last year and had a mini-renaissance under Favre.The guy commands respect and for good reason. He makes his mistakes, but defenses have to account for the guy and he puts his team in position to make plays. Favre's past is littered with marginal WRs that have put up very good numbers as a recipient of his passes. Berrian has shown glimpses of talent and the potential ability to flourish in a Favre offense.

If Favre comes in, WR30ish for a guy like Berrian sounds like a pretty attractive pick to me. I would personally be moving him up into my 20s somewhere if it does happen, definitely closer to where I have a guy like Moore currently at. But then again we still don't know that Favre is going to heal and that the Vikings will pick him up. It's been all over the board for months now and there is no guarantee. A guy like Lance Moore does have the injury hanging over his head, but Drew Brees and that offense are like a rock. Berrian's value is highly dependent on factors that no one can predict right now.

[Azrael]

Of course we are going to miss things and some things do not always work out according to the numbers. Once in awhile players will beat the odds or fail depsite opportunity but I think identifying opportunity is more likely to yield a calculated success than simple guess work. For example, Cam Cameron and Norv Turner have generally made RBs in their system extremely productive. Now LT was already high on the radar when Norv came to town but Frank Gore wasn't. I immediately made certain to scoop up Gore in my leagues the year Norv was highered as SF's OC. The line had also improved with the addition of Larry Allen that year and maybe 1 or 2 other acquisitions.

Huh? Was this supposed to be in a different thread?

In any event, thanks for putting these summaries together. It is a lot of work, and a good contribution to the Cafe.

No, it's an example of how situation can aid the production of a player moreso than just the player.

[Azrael]

Cowboys up