Azrael wrote: I think that is where alot of inexperienced (not saying you are inexperience spodog) FFballers set themselves up to fail. They just see the guy and don't really examine what caused him to succeed or fail.
Azrael wrote:With Sage he's in a different situation. Nothing really against the man himself or his talent.
Yep. You're making my point for me. All I was saying in the first post was that with his new situation
, Sage may be worth a look in 2QB leagues as a backup
. That's hardly an endorsement. My point here is that the most likely situation that will play out is that Favre signs a deal in a few weeks. With that, I find it very likely that the Vikings move to a more balanced pass/run attack than they had last year.
Last year, the Vikes had only 452 passing attempts to 519 rushing. Teams that are that far out of whack in their pass/run balance are either wired to win only one way (like the '99 Rams or last years Cardinals team) or they are teams that are missing key talent and trying to overcome it.
The '08 Vikings are definitely in that 2nd category. They had no QB worthy of being an NFL starting QB last year, except possibly Ferotte, and he was way past his prime, which wasn't much of a prime. So what did they do, they pounded Petersen into the ground.
They won't do that again this year. I think you have cause and effect turned around. The Vikings were near the bottom of the league in passing because they were inept
, it was not by design. Historically, the Vikings have been a pass first team, and I'd predict they will return to that mentality once Favre signs.
I also find it very likely that Favre does not make it through a 16 game schedule. 40 year old's rarely do. Once the playbook is set, however, it is much tougher to turn on a dime, so I think the likelihood of Sage stepping into a ready made balanced pass/run attack are pretty good this year.
So, my conclusion is that the 2009 Sage Rosenfels is a much BETTER gamble than the 2008 Sage Rosenfels would have been down in the Tier 4 or Tier 5 fantasy QB area. I fully expect his numbers to be BETTER than last year AND I do NOT expect the Vikings to be a one dimensional offense like they were in '08, which is what produced the passing stats that you cited.
Azrael wrote:Of course we are going to miss things and some things do not always work out according to the numbers. Once in awhile players will beat the odds or fail depsite opportunity but I think identifying opportunity is more likely to yield a calculated success than simple guess work. For example, Cam Cameron and Norv Turner have generally made RBs in their system extremely productive. Now LT was already high on the radar when Norv came to town but Frank Gore wasn't. I immediately made certain to scoop up Gore in my leagues the year Norv was highered as SF's OC. The line had also improved with the addition of Larry Allen that year and maybe 1 or 2 other acquisitions.
Huh? Was this supposed to be in a different thread?
In any event, thanks for putting these summaries together. It is a lot of work, and a good contribution to the Cafe.