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Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby Spaceman.Spiff » Sat Jun 06, 2009 1:44 am

Okay, it's a 10 team, H2H league with (2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1W/T, 1W/R, 6 BN, 1DEF, 1K)

Scoring categories are slightly modified. 0.25 points per reception, 0.25 points per completion, -0.25 points per incompletion, 1 point per 20 passing yards, -2 per interception. 2.5 point bonus for 100+ receiving or rushing yards or 300+ passing yards, 5 point bonus for 200+ receiving or rushing yards or 400+ passing yards. Everything else is standard Yahoo.

Keeper rules force you to give up a pick two rounds higher than draft position last year. Free agents count as your 16th pick out of 18 rounds. So these are the candidates (with the round sacrifice I would need in parentheses):

Steve Slaton (13th)
Derrick Ward (16th)
Philip Rivers (8th)
Calvin Johnson (3rd)
Donnie Avery (16th)

I'm pretty set on Steve Slaton and have basically ruled out Avery but Rivers, Ward, and Calvin are confusing me. Calvin for a 3rd doesn't sound like a super-steal but with guys like Forte, Slaton, Chris Johnson, Turner, DeAngelo, Roddy getting kept Calvin would be around the 11th ranked guy on my board ruling out the guys ahead of him. So I would be sacrificing the 27th overall pick in his case to get him. If I knew what kind of production I could get from Derrick Ward I'd make him a lock too but I could see him falling out of favor and playing a backup role again. I have Ward as around a late 5th round pick whereas Rivers would be a solid 4th round pick. Should I just take the 3 players I view as the best (Slaton, Calvin, and Rivers) or try to maximize value (Slaton, Ward, and Calvin or Slaton, Ward, and Rivers)?
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby spider321 » Sat Jun 06, 2009 2:36 am

I'd keep Slaton, Ward and Calvin.

You'd only be giving up a 13th and 16th round pick to keep 2 starting RB's. Can't beat that.

Calvin is worth giving up your 3rd imo. The other teams will not be letting someone of his calibur fall to the 3rd round if you released him.

I like Rivers alot, but you can probably get a similar production QB in the draft.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby mattb47 » Sat Jun 06, 2009 2:45 am

I'd keep the following:

1. Steve Slaton - Easy choice here...possible top 10 caliber fantasy back with a 13th round keeper value...pretty easy call.

2. Calvin Johnson - Has the potential to be the flat out best WR out there and is widely considered a top 3-5 WR at worst, no way you don't keep him as a 3rd round value.

3. Philip Rivers - The 2 starting QBs tips this in Rivers favor. Ward has some potential in TB but Earnest Graham is there and he's far from a sure thing...having to start 2 QBs really skyrockets QB's value to the point of ridiculous actually when you consider that there are only 32 possible starting QBs in the league and you'll have to use up 30 of them just for each team to have 2 starters and a backup.

Getting a couple solid ones is pretty key and with your settings, you'll want to target QBs that have high completion percentages. A guy like Drew Brees will be far and beyond the best QB to have because he has a high completion percentage and attempts more passes than anyone else. Kurt Warner gets a boost as well (67% last season). If you're looking at secondary guys to go for, I'd recommend people like Matt Schaub and Trent Edwards as those who complete a good deal of their passes and will also be solid fantasy contributors.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby spider321 » Sat Jun 06, 2009 2:58 am

I didn't notice you start 2QB's. :,-(

In that case, I agree with matt. ;-D
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby Spaceman.Spiff » Sat Jun 06, 2009 3:43 am

Thanks a lot guys. There is a slight chance that we might expand to 12 teams and start 1QB per team. If we only start 1 QB I'm planning on keeping Calvin, Ward, and Slaton and looking for a QB early like Brees, Peyton or Brady in the first two rounds since the point system puts some heavy weight in the QB numbers. Sound reasonable?
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby mattb47 » Sat Jun 06, 2009 4:59 am

Spaceman.Spiff wrote:Thanks a lot guys. There is a slight chance that we might expand to 12 teams and start 1QB per team. If we only start 1 QB I'm planning on keeping Calvin, Ward, and Slaton and looking for a QB early like Brees, Peyton or Brady in the first two rounds since the point system puts some heavy weight in the QB numbers. Sound reasonable?


Sounds like a solid plan...although I question such an extreme change in your league in one off season without a large notice in advance...these things shouldn't change this drastically in a league where players are kept unless you have quite a while in advance (like at least 1 full season in advance).
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby Spaceman.Spiff » Sat Jun 06, 2009 6:12 am

Yeah, it would have to pass unanimous league vote so that's the reason it's such a slight chance but it seems a lot of people want to expand the league to include two more of our friends and 12 team 2QB is impossible so it might happen. Depends on if two of the guys want to come back next year so we might be able to add 2 and subtract 2 and keep the same settings.
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby djadrock » Sat Jun 06, 2009 9:03 am

I would keep Slaton, CJ, and Rivers. Slaton is a steal. Rivers is a great QB and worth a 6th rounder. CJ is worth the first pick if you would lose that!

Help: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=437205&p=3022535#p3022535
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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby TruNinerFan » Sat Jun 06, 2009 10:33 am

djadrock wrote:I would keep Slaton, CJ, and Rivers. Slaton is a steal. Rivers is a great QB and worth a 6th rounder. CJ is worth the first pick if you would lose that!

Help: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=437205&p=3022535#p3022535


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Re: Need to pick 3 keepers...

Postby Indibuck » Sat Jun 06, 2009 10:46 am

mattb47 wrote:I'd keep the following:

1. Steve Slaton - Easy choice here...possible top 10 caliber fantasy back with a 13th round keeper value...pretty easy call.

2. Calvin Johnson - Has the potential to be the flat out best WR out there and is widely considered a top 3-5 WR at worst, no way you don't keep him as a 3rd round value.

3. Philip Rivers - The 2 starting QBs tips this in Rivers favor. Ward has some potential in TB but Earnest Graham is there and he's far from a sure thing...having to start 2 QBs really skyrockets QB's value to the point of ridiculous actually when you consider that there are only 32 possible starting QBs in the league and you'll have to use up 30 of them just for each team to have 2 starters and a backup.

Getting a couple solid ones is pretty key and with your settings, you'll want to target QBs that have high completion percentages. A guy like Drew Brees will be far and beyond the best QB to have because he has a high completion percentage and attempts more passes than anyone else. Kurt Warner gets a boost as well (67% last season). If you're looking at secondary guys to go for, I'd recommend people like Matt Schaub and Trent Edwards as those who complete a good deal of their passes and will also be solid fantasy contributors.



I agree with Matt. ;-D

Rivers is a must-keep if you start 2 QBs.
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