Who to keep?

[Tejones8]

The Falcons won't run as much as last year, but they're still going to be close to the top 5 in rushing attempts this year. I'm not saying that Ryan won't ever be a top 10 QB, but he's not going to be a top 5 QB any time soon. It may be another 2 years before he's even able to crack the top 10. Last year Ryan finished as the 21st QB in average points per game. Orton, Garcia, Hill, and even Rosenfels averaged more points per game then Ryan. Until I see Atlanta open things up, I'm not buying that Ryan should be kept over an elite WR or RB, particularly when you already have Brees in tow. There's a pretty good chance that you could pick up Ryan- or another QB with similar value- via the draft.

[mattb47]

It's easy to manipulate the stats and look at points per game instead of overall where he finished....he finished 15th overall and that's more impressive than guys that played half the games he did finishing with a higher ppg. I have him throwing the ball closer to 475+ times this season which isn't a huge stretch, it would mean less than 3 attempts more per game than he had last season and the addition of Gonzalez makes it likely that his completion percentage won't be going anywhere.

I have him throwing for 3600+ yards and 24 TDs with 10 INTs which isn't a huge stretch by any means considering he'll have a whole off season now with his team, a season of experience under his belt, a great running game to keep defenses honest, and quite possibly the best TE of all time joining the offense. He almost had 3500 yards this season with 40 fewer attempts than I have him throwing so I don't think those numbers are a stretch and they'll place him squarely within the top 10 among fantasy QBs. I have far more faith in him than someone like Hasselbeck who is aging and coming off an injury ridden season...he can have his QBs set for YEARS by keeping Ryan here and in a 2 QB league, having 2 good QBs is a monstrous advantage. I think the chances of finding a comparable QB in the draft with 4 keepers in a 2 QB league is not great either.

[Tejones8]

I see that we're never going to agree on this one so I'll close with this...

Ryan last year threw for 16 TDs and 11 INTs. You have him projected to throw for 33% more TDs which is possible only IF the Falcons open the passing game up. And, if the Falcons do open up the passing game, Ryan will throw more then 10 INTs. Last year, he was not much more then a game manager. Due to the Falcon's successful running game, Ryan rarely needed to force throws.

Also, if the Falcons do allow Ryan 3 more passing attempts per game, that would signal to me that the running game isn't as effective (slim chance in my opinion). Last year the Falcons won games because of their running game, not Matt Ryan. Why would they want to mess with success? I'm not taking anything away from Matt Ryan who made the playoffs as a rookie QB in the NFL which is extremely impressive, but he was the prototypical "game manager."

The original poster never provided us with the number of teams in his league, but I'd assume that it's either a 10 or 12 team league meaning that a total of either 40 or 48 players will be kept. In any case, I've seen Ryan ranked as high as 69th to as low as 86th in dynasty league rankings.

Just curious, are you nearly as high on Joe Flacco?

[Mathew11.]

If you really want good responses I'd strongly recommend giving as much information about your league as possible...especially things that are very non-standard such as a 2 QB league. What are your other starting requirements? That kind of thing always can come into play with this many keepers and deciding between different positions.

Listen to Matt

[Indibuck]

I see that we're never going to agree on this one so I'll close with this...

Ryan last year threw for 16 TDs and 11 INTs. You have him projected to throw for 33% more TDs which is possible only IF the Falcons open the passing game up. And, if the Falcons do open up the passing game, Ryan will throw more then 10 INTs. Last year, he was not much more then a game manager. Due to the Falcon's successful running game, Ryan rarely needed to force throws.

Also, if the Falcons do allow Ryan 3 more passing attempts per game, that would signal to me that the running game isn't as effective (slim chance in my opinion). Last year the Falcons won games because of their running game, not Matt Ryan. Why would they want to mess with success? I'm not taking anything away from Matt Ryan who made the playoffs as a rookie QB in the NFL which is extremely impressive, but he was the prototypical "game manager."

The original poster never provided us with the number of teams in his league, but I'd assume that it's either a 10 or 12 team league meaning that a total of either 40 or 48 players will be kept. In any case, I've seen Ryan ranked as high as 69th to as low as 86th in dynasty league rankings.

Just curious, are you nearly as high on Joe Flacco?

Not MattB but I'll take a stab, because I agree with him.

In a league that starts 2 QBs, a young guy like Ryan is every bit as valuable as a young stud RB. Do the math -- if there's 12 teams in his league, that means 24 QBs must be started every week. All but 8 starting QBs in the league are going to start for someone. Throw in bye weeks and 24 of 28 QBs will be starting. And how many starting QBs are virtually worthless from a fantasy standpoint? More than 4 for sure. 2 high-end QBs are a great start to success in this scoring scenario.

Yes ATL won by running the football effectively last year, and I think that will be the same MO throughout the season. But ATL has a MUCH tougher schedule this year -- that alone will guarantee more passing by ATL. Look at his weapons -- he has a legit stud WR in White, a still elite TE in Gonzo, and a decent WR2 in Jenkins. Add in the fact that Ryan will be in his second year in the system, and the coaches will open it up even more.

And MattB is right -- just a few more passes per game will throw him squarely into the top-10 at the QB position.

By the way -- comparing Ryan to Flacco is comparing apples to watermelons. The only thing they have in common is they are both 2nd year QBs -- their teams are completely different. And no I don't have Flacco in the same ballpark as Ryan.

[mattb47]

I see that we're never going to agree on this one so I'll close with this...

Ryan last year threw for 16 TDs and 11 INTs. You have him projected to throw for 33% more TDs which is possible only IF the Falcons open the passing game up. And, if the Falcons do open up the passing game, Ryan will throw more then 10 INTs. Last year, he was not much more then a game manager. Due to the Falcon's successful running game, Ryan rarely needed to force throws.

So it's your argument that Ryan will not improve his decision making at all in his 2nd year in the league? He has been one of the most promising young QBs we've seen in quite a while as far as being able to make good decisions and lead his team as a rookie. You add in another guy who is an excellent receiver in Tony Gonzalez and you think he'll throw just as many INTs for the attempts he had as he did last year?

Also, if the Falcons do allow Ryan 3 more passing attempts per game, that would signal to me that the running game isn't as effective (slim chance in my opinion). Last year the Falcons won games because of their running game, not Matt Ryan. Why would they want to mess with success? I'm not taking anything away from Matt Ryan who made the playoffs as a rookie QB in the NFL which is extremely impressive, but he was the prototypical "game manager."

So the only reason teams pass more is because their running game is less effective? It couldn't possibly be that they'll trust Matt Ryan with more responsibility and will balance out their offense more next year? Like I pointed out before, the same teams that rush the ball 500+ times in a season don't usually repeat that stat...the only one to do it was Tennessee and they don't have the QB of Ryan's caliber nor the receiving options that he has at his disposal. If you watched Ryan at all he was FAR more than just a game manager...I can't believe you could have watched him much at all if that's your estimation of him from last season.

The Falcons were simply smart to bring him along slower rather than having him throw the ball 550 times in his rookie year or something.

The original poster never provided us with the number of teams in his league, but I'd assume that it's either a 10 or 12 team league meaning that a total of either 40 or 48 players will be kept. In any case, I've seen Ryan ranked as high as 69th to as low as 86th in dynasty league rankings.

Were these rankings for 2 QB leagues? If not then they are nowhere near valid so I fail to see the point of even bringing that up.

Just curious, are you nearly as high on Joe Flacco?

There is no comparison between Ryan and Flacco...the type of QB, situation, quality of personnel, and style of offense are all different which means there's nothing really to look at as a common thing except for that they both started as rookies at QB.

[Mathew11.]

It's easy to manipulate the stats and look at points per game instead of overall where he finished....he finished 15th overall and that's more impressive than guys that played half the games he did finishing with a higher ppg. I have him throwing the ball closer to 475+ times this season which isn't a huge stretch, it would mean less than 3 attempts more per game than he had last season and the addition of Gonzalez makes it likely that his completion percentage won't be going anywhere.

I have him throwing for 3600+ yards and 24 TDs with 10 INTs which isn't a huge stretch by any means considering he'll have a whole off season now with his team, a season of experience under his belt, a great running game to keep defenses honest, and quite possibly the best TE of all time joining the offense. He almost had 3500 yards this season with 40 fewer attempts than I have him throwing so I don't think those numbers are a stretch and they'll place him squarely within the top 10 among fantasy QBs. I have far more faith in him than someone like Hasselbeck who is aging and coming off an injury ridden season...he can have his QBs set for YEARS by keeping Ryan here and in a 2 QB league, having 2 good QBs is a monstrous advantage. I think the chances of finding a comparable QB in the draft with 4 keepers in a 2 QB league is not great either.

Listen to this guy he knows what hes talking about