10-team Keeper league and we can keep up to 3 players 6pt TDs, PPR, 1pt/15yds rushing/receiving I'm picking 7th and figure at least the top 20 players will be kept.
I normally don't keep QBs, nor do I condone it... but Brees is maybe the exception. Hmmm... well, typically I would say keep Wayne, White, and Gore. Then with that 1.08 pick go after a QB or a RB then go after a QB with the 2.03 pick.
I wouldn't blame you for wanting to keep Brees and I understand he's the man, but with that 1.08 pick there will be legit QB left that can take that QB1 spot, however, Gore, Wayne, and White will more than likely be gone by the time 1.08 comes around. I understand you think he's a no-brainer (and I love Brees this year) but I think you're WR and RB will take a serious hit if Brees is kept while you QB will still be a nice grab at the 1.08 or 2.03 pick. Wayne, White, and Gore to me.
Could you potentiall offer any of your players to someone else drafting for additional draft picks?? You have alot of tough calls to make here, if you can make a move go for it, if not I would go with Brees, Gore and Wayne, good luck.
I don't think that Brees is a no brainer. I would keep Gore, White and Wayne. You can draft a good QB. It is a lot easier to find a good QB than it is find stud RB's and WR's.
TruNinerFan wrote:I don't think that Brees is a no brainer. I would keep Gore, White and Wayne. You can draft a good QB. It is a lot easier to find a good QB than it is find stud RB's and WR's.
Especially in a PPR league.
But if you won't change your mind on Brees (and I will grant you, he's about the surest thing at QB in fantasy -- an "off" year for him would probably produce #5 QB numbers) I would keep Gore and Wayne slightly over White.
Like another poster stated, what about a trade? Is there an owner in your league that has a stub RB and not much else? If so, package Gore and White for a RB upgrade. Or Grant and Wayne. Or some combination thereof.
TruNinerFan wrote:I don't think that Brees is a no brainer. I would keep Gore, White and Wayne. You can draft a good QB. It is a lot easier to find a good QB than it is find stud RB's and WR's.
I agree...I've posted this before but there were 11 other QBs the past few seasons (outside of Brady's record setting one which doesn't really count) that have been within 6 points of the #1 QB in points per game. 9 other QBs that were less than 5 ppg below Brees, and 6 other QBs that were within 4 points of him. All that to say, a top QB really isn't worth that "high pick" because you can get comparable guys later in the draft without losing much production.
After doing my RB projections for the upcoming season I ended up with Gore as my #7 PPR back but Grant down in the 20 range so I think you keep Gore here. I'd also put Wayne and White into the must keep category...those two guys are both potential top 5 WRs and you will be hard pressed to find better value there in a full PPR. Welker is nice to have in PPR but he won't blow you away with his numbers.
Before you do this though, look to trade Brees + one of your other keepers for a stud pass catching RB. The guys to target that will catch a lot of passes are guys like MJD, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, and even Clinton Portis, Kevin Smith, and Steve Slaton are guys that are going to put up good numbers in a PPR.
TruNinerFan wrote:I don't think that Brees is a no brainer. I would keep Gore, White and Wayne. You can draft a good QB. It is a lot easier to find a good QB than it is find stud RB's and WR's.
Before you do this though, look to trade Brees + one of your other keepers for a stud pass catching RB. The guys to target that will catch a lot of passes are guys like MJD, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson, and even Clinton Portis, Kevin Smith, and Steve Slaton are guys that are going to put up good numbers in a PPR.
Completely agree. Last case scenario let Brees dop into the player pool... but someone has room for the #1 QB on their roster and if you can get MJD, Forte, or SJax for either Gore/White/Wayne + Brees, then you'll be upgrading your keepers while really not losing anything since you'd be dropping him anyways.
I normally don't keep QBs, this would be the first time I do that in this league. If you guys had Brady after his record breaking season, would you have kept him?
It's hard to argue with the security of Brees, over not just this season, but seasons ahead. He could be my QB for the next 3-5 years. Keeping 3 players makes me a little more comfortable to protect Brees and having 2 of Gore/Wayne/White going into my 4.08 pick makes me think I could come away with a solid top 5. We also don't snake our rounds until the 5th round, so I have picks 4.08, 5.08 and 6.03. Rather than rolling the dice on Rodgers or Rivers in the 5/6th who, while solid QBs, are still question marks on a fantasy-production/consistency basis.
Trading Brees plus Wayne/White seems like a nice option, but who is a real lock for 20+ like Brees is on gameday? MJD? I'm high on him this year, but he still hasn't carried the load for a team yet for a full 16 and I doubt I could pry him away from his owner. I think that's too high a price to pay for Slaton, I don't want S-Jax, Deangelo needs to prove this wasn't a one-hit-wonder and neither Turner's nor Forte's owner will even talk to me about a trade.
And 5-6 ppg is significant. I won 4 games last season with a smaller spread. Thats 80pts for the season and could make or break a playoff run.
Right now, I'm thinking Brees, Gore, Wayne with 4.08, 5.08, 6.03. Though I'm still willing to hear the rationale that changes my mind.
The problem is that you're looking at the scoring as just being "Brees will put up 20+ points each week". What you should be looking at is that if you can get a QB that even averages 18-19 pts/week (which 10 QBs did last season), then you don't lose much there but you'll gain IMMENSELY at RB having a huge advantage over other teams with a couple RBs that can catch passes in Gore and whoever you can get in a trade.
If you think Brees is going to throw for over 5000 yards again and put up the same fantasy numbers, I think you're in for a surprise there...I think 4500+ is feasible but my best guess is that he'll be closer to the 19-21 points per game range as he's NEVER averaged over 20 before this past season. Basically, to be worth you keeping him he has to have another career year which is VERY unlikely...he has to be 6-7 points better per game than the guy you replace him with to be worth keeping instead of keeping one of those WRs or trading for a RB instead in a PPR league.
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by ibweis » Tue Jun 09, 2009 9:38 pm 
