My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

[smfowler]

RB Rank

1. Matt Forte (CHI) - Jay Cutler will keep the defense back a bit more. This will add to
Forte's productivity. Unlike A.P., Forte is a Brian Westbrook type of back who is deadly
in the run-game AND highly efficient in the pass game. Again, unless Chicago makes a run
for Boldin or Marshall, Cutler's weapons will be limited to Forte, Olsen and Hester, who is
still progressing in the receiver role. Forte is the biggest offensive threat on CHI's
roster. (Last Year: 1238RYDS, 477rcvd, 12 TDS).

2. Adrian Peterson (MIN) - Forte and A.P. are a toss-up. I feel both of their success will
rely on the success of the QB. At this point, I consider Cutler a bigger downfield threat
than a 40-year old who underwent arm surgery 2 to 3 months ago (let alone Jackson or
Rosenfels). However, he's A.P., don't be suprised if he does better than Forte. (Last
year: 1760RYDS, 125 RCVD, 10TDs)

3. Michael Turner (ATL) - Michael Turner ran behind an O-Line that was considered the
biggest weakness of the Falcons before the start of last season. However, the O-Line
exceeded expectations and the entire crew is back this year, with the addition of Tony
Gonzalez. Norwood is expected to be a bigger part of the offense this year (as a Falcon fan
I've heard that since Petrino took over), but, Turner is the man when it comes to the goal
line carries. Norwood's increased role (if it were to come to fruition) should help keep
Turner fresh. Again, a good QB will keep the defense honest. (Last year: 1699RYDS, 42
RCVD, 17 TDS)

4. LaDainien Tomlinson (SD) - This is Custer's last stand. A lot of people have questioned
his toughness since sitting out the AFC title game against the Patriots in '07-'08. Last year
was considered a lack-luster season for him and Darren Sproles somehow took the spotlight.
Last year L.T. totaled 1536 all-purpose yards with 12 TDS. Nothing lack-luster about it for
a guy who was coming back from a late season knee injury. (Last year: 1110RYDS, 426RCVD,
12 TDS)

5. DeAngelo Williams (CAR) - Delhomme isn't getting any younger. The Stewart/Williams
tandem will again be a dominating factor next year. The NFC South is one of the
weaker divisions defensively. NO's defense is bad, ATL is relying heavily on inexperienced safeties,
and TB is operating under a first-year head coach. Barring injury, Williams will be very
productive. (Last year: 1515RYDS, 121 RCVD, 20TDs)

Biggest Fall-off

Brandon Jacobs (NYG) - You would think that the loss of Ward would increase Jacobs'
production. However, the Giants lack an established receiver that draws the attention of
the defense. Jacobs did not rush for more than 100 yards after Burress's suspension. In
fact, he stayed injured during this time which should be a red flag to his durability.
He'll make someone a very good number 2 back. Don't waste your 1st or 2nd round pick on
him. Let someone else be a chump.

Chris Johnson (TEN) - I added him on a whim. Anyone who thinks they are a "COach's Dream"
after one season in the NFL is doomed. I'm going to apply the T.O. rule to him. Next year
he will be productive but will not put up the numbers he did last season. By 2010, he'll be
the bane of anyone who drafts him in the 1st three rounds. Devin Hester tied the return TD
record in two years and ran the first kickoff in a Super Bowl back for a TD. That, my
friend is a Coach's Dream. After Week 8, he ran for 100+ yards twice against CLE and DET.
Honestly, a coach's nightmare could put up 100+ yds against those two teams. In fact, last
year, he ran for 100+ yards against 4 teams. Those teams are... CIN, KAN, DET, and CLE.
Need I say more??

[Azrael]

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and while I don't have a huge beef with your rankings, some of your methodolgies need looked at.

1. "He is AP" - this reads to me as you think the man's production is a given of himself and that's simply not true. Look what LJ did with a great Oline and look what he did with a bad one. Same goes for AP. AP in Minnesota is not the same as AP in say Miami or Seattle. Not saying he wouldn't outproduce those guys who were there last year but he wouldn't be as productive as he is in Minnesota.

2. Regarding Brandon Jacobs, the fact that a team is not productive throwing the ball does not equate to getting stuffed on the ground. There are countless examples like Gore in SF (2006) and Jamal in Baltimore in his 2,000 yard year, etc. Sure he didn't have 100 yard game after Burress left, he still scored 6 times in the 4 games he played and averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game. And if I spend a 2nd rounder on Jacobs after I have spent a 1st rounder on a back, doesn't that make him my 2nd back?

[Kensat30]

New York has the best o-line in football. I wouldn't be worried about Brandon Jacobs outside of an injury. That dude is a beast, the line is full of beasts, and they are going to have to run the ball a lot to win games. Jacbos is a guy thought of as a RB#2 that has top5 potential IMO. Upside has to be somewhere near 20 TDs if he can stay healthy.

[Mr.Joshua]

Just alittle feedback on the Cris Johnson comments-

Chris Johnson defended himself from criticism that he's a "me first" player after attempting to separate from LenDale White and change his nickname to "Every Coach's Dream."

"I know people are saying I want to be an individual, that I’m not a team guy," Johnson said. "All I want is a new nickname, and it’s in fun. I am an entertaining guy." Johnson, a coaching staff and teammate favorite, remains on great terms with White (and is now dubbing LenDale "Every Coach's Nightmare"). Fantasy owners shouldn't worry about Johnson blossoming into a full-blown diva.
Source: Nashville Tennessean

[mrblitz]

Just a little curious why MJD didn't make your cut of top 5?

[Instinctive]

Just a little curious why MJD didn't make your cut of top 5?

Yeah. And Matt Forte shouldn't be there at all.

Forte was not good last year. He was simply the only thing they had that was at least average. He doesn't have a good YPC, he needed a massive amount of attempts and targets to finish close to where he did, and there is no room for more rushes or catches. He isn't very talented, and it is really obvious if you watched him play last year. (My parents are Bears homers so I saw every game when I went over to their place for Sunday "dinner")

[fantasizing]

My suspicion is that the original poster is a Bears fan and was also on the wrong side of C. Johnson fantasy outbursts.
There seems a bit of anger in his post.

[mcmill3]

Forte ranked higher than ADP? Not sure I agree with that and MJD should be included in your top 5. I would remove Turner - he has one helluva schedule this year.

[Kareighuis]

I'm surprised MJD ain't listed, disagree with LT being in the 5 (never mind top 10) and think DAW is just barely outside the top 5. I'm not interested in Jacobs either, but a team could get him as their RB2 in the 2nd round.

[moochman]

I'm surprised MJD ain't listed, disagree with LT being in the 5 (never mind top 10) and think DAW is just barely outside the top 5. I'm not interested in Jacobs either, but a team could get him as their RB2 in the 2nd round.

I have to place MJD in the top five, drop DeAngelo and sadly LT. Were I to bank on a stud staying healthy and attaining top five stats I would look for S Jax over LT. Do I think either will stay healthy, no. So they don't get there.

I do think Forte belongs there due to increased running room with the threat that Cutler brings. Prolly at 4.

ADP
MJD

Turner
Forte
Gore

I think biggest fall offs may be Westbrook and Barber. Westbrook due to injuries and more competition, Barber due to too much change, crappy coaching, and Felix the thief Jones. Total guessing game at this point, of course.