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My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby joejlitz » Sun Jun 28, 2009 12:14 pm

The Sporting News did a nice article in their fantasy mag that warns owners to beware AD and Turner due to their heavy workload last year. They back if up by stating that 14 of the last 18 RBs who carried the ball over 345 times went on to either miss several games the next year due to injury and/or went on to have seasons where they significantly dropped their YPG and/or total TDs. Examples include: LJ, SJAX, Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander, Edge, Bettis, Stephen Davis, Fred Taylor, etc., etc.

I'm not saying don't draft them. I'm just arming you with info.

I also feel LT will drop off significantly. Not because he isn't still talented, but more because I think the Chargers will lean much more heavily on Sproles. They franchised Sproles and the only other back-up to get Franchised in recent memory is Cassel. LT will still get 1,000 yards and 7 TDs IMO. Nice numbers, but not top-5.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Tejones8 » Sun Jun 28, 2009 12:44 pm

Everybody is entitled to their own opinions, but I had a couple problems with your rankings.

First, you say that you rank Forte ahead of AP because of the QB situation. It's not like the Frerotte/Jackson combo slowed AP down much last year. He did lead the league in rushing.

Second, I don't think Forte is a top 2 pick this year. The overall stats look solid, and like you mentioned he is a good receiver. But, anybody who averages below 4 YPC shouldn't be ranked that high. Cutler should help, but just to put it in comparison even Kevin Smith on the helpless Lion was able to average 4.1 YPC last season.

Also interesting was the absence of MJD. This is one of the first rankings I've seen with MJD not in the top 5. I hope my money league follows your rankings so I can snag MJD at pick #6. :-D
Last edited by Tejones8 on Sun Jun 28, 2009 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby aaawall91 » Sun Jun 28, 2009 1:15 pm

Mine dooesn't have MJD top 5:
1. AP
2. Sjax
3. Brown
4. Turner
5. Forte
6. DeAngelo Williams
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Tejones8 » Sun Jun 28, 2009 3:09 pm

aaawall91 wrote:Mine dooesn't have MJD top 5:
1. AP
2. Sjax
3. Brown
4. Turner
5. Forte
6. DeAngelo Williams


Wow, Ronnie at #3?
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby smfowler » Sun Jun 28, 2009 8:23 pm

Azrael wrote:2. Sure he didn't have 100 yard game after Burress left, he still scored 6 times in the 4 games he played and averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game. And if I spend a 2nd rounder on Jacobs after I have spent a 1st rounder on a back, doesn't that make him my 2nd back?


FYI, Plax didnt play after week 11. Jacobs was out in week 12. From week 13 to week 17 Jacobs had 4 TDS and averaged a whopping 70 YPG. 3 of those TDs came against the Panthers who were ranked 20th in defending the rush.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Kareighuis » Sun Jun 28, 2009 9:09 pm

moochman wrote:ADP
MJD

Turner
Forte
Gore


I'm nowhere near my rankings, but those look about right.

aaawall91 wrote:Mine dooesn't have MJD top 5:
1. AP
2. Sjax
3. Brown
4. Turner
5. Forte
6. DeAngelo Williams


Wow, Ronnie? SJax top2? Just goes to show that most believe AP is #1 in a redraft, but there's alot of variation on who goes after that.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby biju » Sun Jun 28, 2009 9:52 pm

There seems to be quite a consensus on a few things.

1. LT is going to drop out of the top 5 picks for the first time in a long time. And I'm going to be glad to snag him with a late 1st round pick every chance I have. People seem to forget that LT still had a great year last year, just bad by his standards. I'm pretty sure that *most* FF'ers will admit that TDs are difficult to count on as a reliable stat year over year and Tomlinson *did* have a pretty steep dropoff from the year before. But I want everyone to quickly guess how many more overall yards DeAngelo Williams had last season than Tomlinson, and I'll get to that answer at the end.

2. MJD is going to be ranked as a top 5 back. While I can understand the need to do that based on last year, I personally am 2staying away from him. He hasn't proven that he can be a feature back and has never had more than 200 carries. As a matter of fact, as soon as he *was* the featured back he was hurt (in 2008). I know you can't base your decisions solely on the possibility of someone getting hurt and I do think there is a possibility that he'll thrive in the position, but the risk is too high for me to spend the necessary pick when there will be proven options available.

3. Chris Johnson is going to be a top 10 pick. This is going to be a mistake IMO and again I'm staying away from him. Now to be fair, I think most of the Titans woes is going to come from being a bad defense and constantly playing from behind. I think people are seriously underestimating (or not considering) how different that defense is going to be without Albert Haynesworth and what that is going to do to the Titans offense. On that note, in PPR leagues Chris Johnson will not lose quite as much value because the Titans are still without a "real" set of WRs and he'll still get plenty of catches. Of course, his YAC was pretty low last year so that will need to improve too.

4. There is a large group of FF'ers that believe that Cutler coming to Chicago is going to make Forte a better RB. Hmmm. I really can see it going two different ways. First off, Cutler does spread the field and it may very well lead to fewer stacked lines or whatever it was that caused Forte to only get 3.9 YPC. But if I were a DC I would continue to play those Chicago WRs with single coverage as none of them really scare me. The difference this year is that Cutler will likely not settle for the dump off pass to Forte and his value will be even *lower* than it was last year. But if the DC decides he needs to stop Cutler and those so-so pass catchers Forte may very well find a lot of room to run. I didn't like Forte last year and I don't think he has the ability other do. Again, I'm staying away from him.

5. Many people are concerned about Michael Turner's ability to stay healthy in 2009. Quite frankly, I am too. The stats say that he'll break down and I don't have a comeback on that at all. For some reason however, I think he's going to be just fine next year. I have *absolutely nothing* to base this on and I'm agreeing with everyone that it doesn't look good for him. But I think he's going to be a top 5 player next season.

Tomlinson had 103 fewer overall yards than DeAngelo Williams--a total of 6.4 yards per game more. On top of that, 82 of those extra yards came from the difference in week 17, a game that likely didn't help you. Granted, the big difference was in TDs where Williams had 20 and Tomlinson had 12. But I wonder and openly question if that TD stat trend (Williams being up, Tomlinson being down) will continue into 2009. For that matter, only 6 players had more overall yards than Tomlinson in his "horrible" year: Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Clinton Portis, Steve Slaton, and DeAngelo Williams. If Tomlinson had averaged a mere 13 more yards per game, he would have been #2 on the list.

Down year? I hope everyone keeps buying that... ;-D
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby aaawall91 » Mon Jun 29, 2009 1:02 am

aaawall91 wrote:Mine dooesn't have MJD top 5:
1. AP
2. Sjax
3. Brown
4. Turner
5. Forte
6. DeAngelo Williams


Let me add

7. LT
8. Portis

Some reasoning. ..

1. Ap: Obvious, amazing talent, I see the situation around him improving which means good things for him.

2. Sjax: Finished 13th last year on an offense that was abysmal and he missed 4 games. I'm banking on him being healthy like in 06 where he played all 16 and finished as the 3rd best back. He is an RB who isn't small, catches balls, and isn't in much of an RBBC at all.

3. RonnieB: Similar to Sjax in terms of me banking on him being healthy. But in 07 before he went down for the season he was the #1 back. Last year he played exceptionally well with the amount of time he had to recover. This year with over a year of recovery time from the knee injury I expect every aspect of his running to improve and to regain a form similar to what was displayed in 07. Again, RB who isn't small (6'1" 223), catches balls, and isn't in much of an RBBC at all.

4. Turner: First year being the man he posted amazing numbers (learned from the best in LT). Atlanta's offense should improve with Gonzo and Ryan getting another year under his belt. Which means less touches for Turner. Less wear, which is a worry because of the number of carries, but not enough to take him out of the top 5 IMO. And before last season he had minimal wear with minimal workloads his whole career, I don't worry about the injury curse hoax.

5. Forte: How good is Cutler really? I'm not so sure his addition will be DRASTICALLY that much different than Orton. Chicago likes to play solid D and run the clock out. Forte can catch passes (most receptions for a RB in the league) and WR has a fairly young and unpolished receiving core which means Forte again will have plenty of receptions. He has the ability to crack top 5, he did it last year with 50+ less carries than Turner and Peterson and so-so rushing TD numbers with 8 (lowest rushing TD total for a RB in the top ten last year). That being said. I think they acquired Cutler so they can have stability in the QB position and keep the offense on the field more, which means more Red Zone chances because again I don't see Chicago changing the offensive plan too much.

6. DeAngelo: Stewart there scares me, but its hard to turn your back completely on the #1 back last year. I was huge on him going into last year with everyone writing him off and for good reason I was high on him. He is skilled and Carolina loves to run the ball. Delhomme isn't getting younger. While I am a firm believer in the "TD's are Luck and the Yards are for real" theory I think Williams will have plenty of oppurtunities to get in the red zone once again because of how much they rush it I give him a floor of ten. and his Yardage numbers weren't horrible...3rd in the league. Which is enough for me to put him at 6, because I trust the rushing numbers. Even if Jstew gets a bigger role I still see Williams getting tons of yardage.

7. LT: along with many others I agree LT put up great numbers in a "down" year. I want to put him in the top 5 where he has been consistently for years, but his career totals and age scare me out of it. It wouldn't surprise me to see him be the #1 overall back again, but it wouldn't shock me to see him at #20 either. His pass catching ability and style of running is what keeps him here for me, at least one more year.

8. Portis: Still under 30, still consistently putting up top ten numbers since the start of his career (exception is 06 when he played 8 games, but hasn't missed a game since) I don't see a reason to hold that against him this year. Will the passing attack in WAS improve? Probably not. Portis will have the same role he has had the past 5 years in Washington and it has worked well for him so far. Similar to LT, career totals scare me, but its hard to argue against is consistency till he hits 30 years old for me or proves me wrong.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Tejones8 » Mon Jun 29, 2009 4:32 pm

Let me add

7. LT
8. Portis

Some reasoning. ..

1. Ap: Obvious, amazing talent, I see the situation around him improving which means good things for him.

2. Sjax: Finished 13th last year on an offense that was abysmal and he missed 4 games. I'm banking on him being healthy like in 06 where he played all 16 and finished as the 3rd best back. He is an RB who isn't small, catches balls, and isn't in much of an RBBC at all.

3. RonnieB: Similar to Sjax in terms of me banking on him being healthy. But in 07 before he went down for the season he was the #1 back. Last year he played exceptionally well with the amount of time he had to recover. This year with over a year of recovery time from the knee injury I expect every aspect of his running to improve and to regain a form similar to what was displayed in 07. Again, RB who isn't small (6'1" 223), catches balls, and isn't in much of an RBBC at all.

4. Turner: First year being the man he posted amazing numbers (learned from the best in LT). Atlanta's offense should improve with Gonzo and Ryan getting another year under his belt. Which means less touches for Turner. Less wear, which is a worry because of the number of carries, but not enough to take him out of the top 5 IMO. And before last season he had minimal wear with minimal workloads his whole career, I don't worry about the injury curse hoax.

5. Forte: How good is Cutler really? I'm not so sure his addition will be DRASTICALLY that much different than Orton. Chicago likes to play solid D and run the clock out. Forte can catch passes (most receptions for a RB in the league) and WR has a fairly young and unpolished receiving core which means Forte again will have plenty of receptions. He has the ability to crack top 5, he did it last year with 50+ less carries than Turner and Peterson and so-so rushing TD numbers with 8 (lowest rushing TD total for a RB in the top ten last year). That being said. I think they acquired Cutler so they can have stability in the QB position and keep the offense on the field more, which means more Red Zone chances because again I don't see Chicago changing the offensive plan too much.

6. DeAngelo: Stewart there scares me, but its hard to turn your back completely on the #1 back last year. I was huge on him going into last year with everyone writing him off and for good reason I was high on him. He is skilled and Carolina loves to run the ball. Delhomme isn't getting younger. While I am a firm believer in the "TD's are Luck and the Yards are for real" theory I think Williams will have plenty of oppurtunities to get in the red zone once again because of how much they rush it I give him a floor of ten. and his Yardage numbers weren't horrible...3rd in the league. Which is enough for me to put him at 6, because I trust the rushing numbers. Even if Jstew gets a bigger role I still see Williams getting tons of yardage.

7. LT: along with many others I agree LT put up great numbers in a "down" year. I want to put him in the top 5 where he has been consistently for years, but his career totals and age scare me out of it. It wouldn't surprise me to see him be the #1 overall back again, but it wouldn't shock me to see him at #20 either. His pass catching ability and style of running is what keeps him here for me, at least one more year.

8. Portis: Still under 30, still consistently putting up top ten numbers since the start of his career (exception is 06 when he played 8 games, but hasn't missed a game since) I don't see a reason to hold that against him this year. Will the passing attack in WAS improve? Probably not. Portis will have the same role he has had the past 5 years in Washington and it has worked well for him so far. Similar to LT, career totals scare me, but its hard to argue against is consistency till he hits 30 years old for me or proves me wrong.


A couple things...

First off, what do you have against MJD?

Second of all, Brown is in what I'd consider to be a RBBC. Last year Brown had 214 carries to Ricky's 160. Now, with Brown being 2 years removed from his ACL injury and Williams being another year older, Brown will probably receive more carries this year. But I don't think Brown will receive enough extra carries to finish the year as a top 3 RB.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby biju » Mon Jun 29, 2009 5:20 pm

Tejones8 wrote:A couple things...

First off, what do you have against MJD?

Second of all, Brown is in what I'd consider to be a RBBC. Last year Brown had 214 carries to Ricky's 160. Now, with Brown being 2 years removed from his ACL injury and Williams being another year older, Brown will probably receive more carries this year. But I don't think Brown will receive enough extra carries to finish the year as a top 3 RB.


I know you didn't ask me, but I think there are a lot of people who are eager to discount the fact that MJD hasn't ever carried the load before. It's the same issue people had against Michael Turner last year as well. Some people discounted it, and others didn't. But the fact remains that MJD hasn't had a season with more than 200 carries and I'll continue to be cautious about that because he's not exactly the biggest guy on the field.

RBBC is subjective without a definition, so let's put that mark at an RBBC is where no back receives greater than 65% of the carries. Last year Ronnie Brown had 57.2% of the carries and the word out of Dolphin OTAs is that Brown looked quick while Ricky looked slow. Here are some quick stats on the Dolphins:

Rushing Attempts: 448
Rushing Attempts (Ronnie/Ricky): 374
Ronnie attempts: 214 (57.2%)

If the Dolphins continue to run the ball around the same amount but Ronnie's workload increases to 70% of the carries (about 6 more carries per game) he'll get 313 carries. At his 4.3 ypc clip from last year that equates to 1,345 yards. Last year that number would have ranked him #5 in terms of rushing yards.

There's a lot to like about Ronnie Brown if Ricky Williams continues to look old and slow. If he comes back strong in preseason then we might have to scale back our numbers and expectations.
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