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My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Tejones8 » Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:12 pm

I know you didn't ask me, but I think there are a lot of people who are eager to discount the fact that MJD hasn't ever carried the load before. It's the same issue people had against Michael Turner last year as well. Some people discounted it, and others didn't. But the fact remains that MJD hasn't had a season with more than 200 carries and I'll continue to be cautious about that because he's not exactly the biggest guy on the field.

RBBC is subjective without a definition, so let's put that mark at an RBBC is where no back receives greater than 65% of the carries. Last year Ronnie Brown had 57.2% of the carries and the word out of Dolphin OTAs is that Brown looked quick while Ricky looked slow. Here are some quick stats on the Dolphins:

Rushing Attempts: 448
Rushing Attempts (Ronnie/Ricky): 374
Ronnie attempts: 214 (57.2%)

If the Dolphins continue to run the ball around the same amount but Ronnie's workload increases to 70% of the carries (about 6 more carries per game) he'll get 313 carries. At his 4.3 ypc clip from last year that equates to 1,345 yards. Last year that number would have ranked him #5 in terms of rushing yards.

There's a lot to like about Ronnie Brown if Ricky Williams continues to look old and slow. If he comes back strong in preseason then we might have to scale back our numbers and expectations.


A 6 carry a game jump is pretty substantial. It's not like Williams was horrible last year (I could be mistaken but I believe he averaged around 4.2 YPC).

But, like you said, let's wait until training camp and see how this plays out.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby biju » Mon Jun 29, 2009 7:12 pm

Tejones8 wrote:
I know you didn't ask me, but I think there are a lot of people who are eager to discount the fact that MJD hasn't ever carried the load before. It's the same issue people had against Michael Turner last year as well. Some people discounted it, and others didn't. But the fact remains that MJD hasn't had a season with more than 200 carries and I'll continue to be cautious about that because he's not exactly the biggest guy on the field.

RBBC is subjective without a definition, so let's put that mark at an RBBC is where no back receives greater than 65% of the carries. Last year Ronnie Brown had 57.2% of the carries and the word out of Dolphin OTAs is that Brown looked quick while Ricky looked slow. Here are some quick stats on the Dolphins:

Rushing Attempts: 448
Rushing Attempts (Ronnie/Ricky): 374
Ronnie attempts: 214 (57.2%)

If the Dolphins continue to run the ball around the same amount but Ronnie's workload increases to 70% of the carries (about 6 more carries per game) he'll get 313 carries. At his 4.3 ypc clip from last year that equates to 1,345 yards. Last year that number would have ranked him #5 in terms of rushing yards.

There's a lot to like about Ronnie Brown if Ricky Williams continues to look old and slow. If he comes back strong in preseason then we might have to scale back our numbers and expectations.


A 6 carry a game jump is pretty substantial. It's not like Williams was horrible last year (I could be mistaken but I believe he averaged around 4.2 YPC).

But, like you said, let's wait until training camp and see how this plays out.


It's substantial when you already are averaging 20+ carries a game. But in Ronnie's case he was averaging a mere 13.4 carries a game. This would put him back to around 20 carries a game which is pretty standard for featured backs. It's a substantial increase no matter what, but it doesn't put him in any different of a situation than any other featured back and I would still maintain that his low 2008 number of carries was merely because of his injury. But clearly we need more information and if you have any early draft I would discount his value as such until we see otherwise.

I would also like to point out that 214/448 is clearly not 57% of the carries. I did that number only counting Ronnie and Ricky's carries. His correct percentage split from last year was 47.8%. I just didn't change the number when I updated to *all* Dolphin carries.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Azrael » Mon Jun 29, 2009 7:55 pm

IMO, it's a mistake to base Ronnie Brown's projections based on 2007. He was in a different offensive system that ran through the RB. That is not the same system he is in now. Steven Jackson should be alright. Pat Shurmur coming from Philadelphia gives me no reservations about Jackson being used effectively.

The guy that I think is just an absolute steal is Willis McGahee. McClain is going back to his fullback role and that's 230 carries that has to go somewhere. Granted, McGahee has largely been an underachiever, 3.9ypc isn't exactly what you are looking for but it's not like McClain or Rice did much better. People think 2 things A. McClain will steal all the goal line touches and B. Rice will significantly cut into McGahee's production. But a guy who's 5'8" 200lbs is not going to be toting the rock as a lead back. Rice is going in the 9th in 10 teamers and McGahee is going in the 12th, absolutely ridiculous. And the full back has never been known to take the carries on the GL in Cam's offense; he's another battering ram to pave the way for the ball carrier, who will be McGahee, not Rice. Oh, and the offensive line just got better too. It's like free money.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby aaawall91 » Tue Jun 30, 2009 12:05 am

Azrael wrote:IMO, it's a mistake to base Ronnie Brown's projections based on 2007. He was in a different offensive system that ran through the RB. That is not the same system he is in now.


I some what agree with this, I can't recall the guys name because I'm so tired, but his OC at the time was a dream for RBs. But, what we saw was Ronnie's potential coming out, his talent realized and utilized. And I see no reason why that won't happen again.

Also, it was my mistake for claiming Ronnie wasn't in a true RBBC, he is fairly close but I agree with biju's thinking of Ronnie getting more (6 seems logical) and Ricky getting less. Which would put him over 70% between the top 2 backs, and over 50% for all the backs.

What I have against MJD:
- Hasn't been in the situation he is currently in yet in his career.
- I like Greg Jones and Rashard Jennings alot, and think one may have the chance to surprise and go all MJD on MJD.
- Small back, can he handle more touches and stay healthy? and be as effective with each carry every (every game?, over the season?)?
- and I've just got a feeling...which is alot of what fantasy football is to me.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Tejones8 » Tue Jun 30, 2009 12:17 am

aaawall91 wrote:
Azrael wrote:IMO, it's a mistake to base Ronnie Brown's projections based on 2007. He was in a different offensive system that ran through the RB. That is not the same system he is in now.


I some what agree with this, I can't recall the guys name because I'm so tired, but his OC at the time was a dream for RBs. But, what we saw was Ronnie's potential coming out, his talent realized and utilized. And I see no reason why that won't happen again.


It was Cam Cameron, wasn't it?

What I have against MJD:
- Hasn't been in the situation he is currently in yet in his career.
- I like Greg Jones and Rashard Jennings alot, and think one may have the chance to surprise and go all MJD on MJD.
- Small back, can he handle more touches and stay healthy? and be as effective with each carry every (every game?, over the season?)?
- and I've just got a feeling...which is alot of what fantasy football is to me.


Fair enough.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Instinctive » Tue Jun 30, 2009 12:50 am

It was Cam Cameron.


Which is why I would like Ray Rice, who has the LT/Ronnie shiftiness and not banging up the middle type style that Cameron loves to work with.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby LS2throwed » Tue Jun 30, 2009 2:27 am

biju wrote:3. Chris Johnson is going to be a top 10 pick. This is going to be a mistake IMO and again I'm staying away from him. Now to be fair, I think most of the Titans woes is going to come from being a bad defense and constantly playing from behind. I think people are seriously underestimating (or not considering) how different that defense is going to be without Albert Haynesworth and what that is going to do to the Titans offense. On that note, in PPR leagues Chris Johnson will not lose quite as much value because the Titans are still without a "real" set of WRs and he'll still get plenty of catches. Of course, his YAC was pretty low last year so that will need to improve too.



I can't believe people are still doubting this guy, especially as a top 10 pick , I just don't buy it...For one he averaged 5 YPC last year, how was that low? That's very good for a rookie who totaled over 250 carries. The Titans didn't have a real WR last year, or a QB, or any other weapon, and by week 2 it was obvious who the only play-maker on that team was and who teams were gameplanning to stop, yet he still produced.


If you listed to all the reports from the off-season:


Titans coached reiterated an intent to get Chris Johnson more carries and catches, with an emphasis on finding creative ways to get him the ball in open spaces.
"The playoff game was an indication of where he could go," said running backs coach Earnest Byner. "(The Ravens) could hardly touch him." Coordinator Mike Heimerdinger said he held back on the throttle last season because he thought he was "stretching" the rookie too much, but he'll be moved around all over the place this season. Johnson should also benefit from the addition of receivers Nate Washington and Kenny Britt, forcing defenses to respect the deep ball.
Source: Nashville Tennessean



Titans coach Jeff Fisher reiterated that RB Chris Johnson will be even more involved in the offense in 2009.
"We didn't get as much done with him as we wanted because it was his first year and he was learning," said Fisher. "We're going to expand on what we did with him. Any time you get someone with his ability, you want to create mismatches and move him around." Johnson is looking like a sure-fire first-round fantasy pick this year.
Source: ESPN.com



Chris Johnson isn't at the Titans' facility this offseason because he's working with speed and performance specialist Tom Shaw in Florida.
Shaw helps players train for the NFL Scouting Combine and has tutored each of the last six Super Bowl MVPs. Four days a week Johnson is pushing golf carts to increase his leg drive and working on his side-to-side movements.
Source: Nashville Tennessean



In the playoff game he had 11 carries, for 72 yards, 6.5 YPC, 1 TD, and 1 rec for 28 yards, all this versus the Ravens and these were his numbers after 2 quarters before his injury...He's supremely talented, the fact that their trying to get him more involved aka the feature back, the fact that he was dominating from the moment he put the pads on last year and how in love the coaching staff is with him, seems like he'd at worst equal his rookie season in production.


He had 250 carries and 43 receptions last year, if their screaming for him to get more involved, look at that volume of work he'll receive, and he's the type of guy who can perform with limited carries.


Also for the talk everyone brings up of Lendale stealing TD's, CJ was still able to rake in 10 TD's in his rookie season with 8 man fronts every week and a goal line vulture on the team. Frank Gore on the other hand is a consensus top 10 pick seems like every year, and he has NEVER recorded double digit TD's in his entire career, that's total TD's btw in 4 years, 3 of which he was a feature back.


Then you look around at other one year wonders like Steve Slaton, and the only thing you hear from camp is:


Texans coach Gary Kubiak reiterated that he wants to pair Steve Slaton with another running back.
"The perfect complement is a bigger, more physical guy who’s good in short-yardage and goal-line situations," Kubiak said. "And we’re not looking for a guy who’s just a backup player. It takes two backs to get through a season."
Source: Houston Chronicle



That's a completely different tune then what you hear from the Chris Johnson camp, it's obvious Tennessee wants to build the offense around CJ, and Houston wants to limit how much Slaton does and obviously wants to find another back to pair with him...Now I don't expect the D to be the same, but it's traditionally a good unit under Tennessee, people thought they would drop off after losing Pacman then out of nowhere you have Cortland Finnegan, Tennessee is a team you can consistently expect to play great defense year in and out.


They won't be the same without Albert, but it won't be enough to affect Chris Johnson, but even if they were playing from behind 90% of the time, Frank Gore had nearly 1700 rushing yards in 06 on a lackluster team with no QB play...I doubt it hinders his ability to make big plays from all over the field much.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby biju » Tue Jun 30, 2009 10:49 am

LS2throwed wrote:<lots of stuff>


I was hoping to explain in that short paragraph that I don't necessarily doubt his talent, but the team. If you think he'll get the same number of carries when the Titans are down on points then there you go. I also didn't say his rushing avg was low, but his 6 yards per catch was low for a receiver out of the backfield. Out of the top 30 pass catching backs only one player (Thomas Jones, 5.8 yards/catch) had less yards per catch and there were only 5 RBs (including Johnson) who had less than 7 yards per catch.

His yards per carry was great and I didn't say that was low at all. I do think given an entire offseason that DCs will be able to better gameplan for him though. The Titans OCs will need to stay one step ahead otherwise his YPC will drop. And yes, I've been reading all of the offseason reports and I'm aware that they are trying to work him in more. I do find it a little odd that they use the playoff game as a reason why he needs more work, as he was injured during that game. I would be worried if I were a CJ owner that they might try to "over-use" him and he gets injured again. Speedsters with low power don't tend to do well in this league when they are injured. But as I always say, you can't predict injury so it's kind of a moot point.

As for his TDs, I'm actually wondering if they might go up. LenDale White has reportedly come into camp 30 pounds lower than his playing weight and that can't be good for someone who is a goalline back. The Titans might make a move to use CJ at the goalline if White can't produce. But I do think this is a move by White to possibly receive more carries. Whether it will actually work, who knows?

It sounds good when coaches talk about Chris Johnson getting more carries, but I remain a bit skeptical of how well the Titans' offense will do this year because of their defense. They might come into this season expecting to control the clock with more running, but I'm not sure they will be in a position to do that.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Jun 30, 2009 10:54 pm

Regarding Chris Johnson: It's hard to draft a guy as a #1 RB when you know he is not getting the majority of the goalline carries no matter how good he is. Chris Johnson is a very talented RB, but Tennessee also has Lendale White. Chris Johnson does not have 20 TD upside with Lendale White there IMO. Even a guy like Javon Ringer has enough talent to ensure a quasi-RBBC there if White goes down. We all saw last year in the playoffs what happens to the Titans when Chris Johnson goes down. They simply cannot afford to let this guy try his hand at 350 carries or the season could easily go down the tubes, just as if another team had lost their starting QB.


Regarding Ronnie Brown: People drafting this guy in the late 2nd round seem to have forgotten that Ricky Williams (a former ALL-Pro player) had a significant role for all of last season and figures to be a big part of the offense again this year. Any guy in a substantial RBBC is a risk that early in the draft IMO. Could Ronnie Brown be this years Deangelo Williams? Yes. Could he also be another repeat of '08 Ronnie? Yes. The problem last year was not the knee, it was a guy named Ricky Williams. I don't see the value there unless you have inside knowledge that Ricky Williams is injured/out of his mind/etc. and is not in line for a significant number of touches. In Buffalo, Fred Jackson is a major cap on Marshawn Lynch's potential production, and even at his old age, Ricky Williams is twice the player that Fred Jackson is.


Regarding Willis Mcgahee: Reports are that Ray Rice is running with the first team right now, but you have to believe that McGahee is the guy that is first in line. I'm very high on Rice's talent, but last year in extensive playing time he looked like a high upside situational RB and not a bell cow. Last year was a nightmare year for McGahee with injuries (including a significant one before the season even started), but he still performed at a respectable level. Even now a guy like Leron McClain, an overrated one year wonder now playing FB, is pushing Mcgahee down draft boards? It just doesn't make sense how far this guy is falling. Out of any RB you can take a chance on as your 4th or even 5th back, there is not a better pick out there than McGahee. Hell, Mcgahee is better than some players going 3-5 rounds ahead of him. He has done more, is more talented, is in a better potential situation, but a lot people for some reason have already put this guy out to pasture and won't even draft him in the 8th round of a redraft. It's ridiculous what one year can do for someone's value. This is a guy who went in the 2nd last year when he was facing an injury that potentially could have held him out of multiple games at the very beginning of the season. I think this guy turns in a RB2 performance this year.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:00 am

Looking at his ADP, McGahee is a better value than McClain. McGahee is more explosive, and the talk of moving McClain back to FB hurts his perceived value more than McGahee's repeated injury issues. But, the guy in Baltimore I'd rather have isn't McClain, McGahee or Rice. I'd pass on all of them and keep an eye on Peerman. I believe he has the most of talent of the 4 and the least performance-related issues (injuires, position change). As a rookie, there is a chance he won't be forced into the lineup, but if there's a need, Baltimore has shown they won't hesitate- last year, they thrust a FB into the featured role.

If Ronnie fell far enough for me, say 4th round, I'd strongly consider taking him. But where he's going now, I'd gladly take Thomas, Smith or Grant over him. Miami's offensive weapons are limited- they either have Pennington, Henne or White at QB. Poor WR play doesn't help the issue. Even if reports are true and Ricky's carries get scaled back in favor of Ronnie, you have to consider that gawdawful schedule in a seasonal league.

I see Chris Johnson's talent, but I would not want to rely on him as my RB1. The easy answer- get one you would rely on in the late 1st, hope he slides to you at the beginning of the second. Voila! The problem- looking at ADPs, I'd miss out on Fitzgerald and Johnson and likely the top couple of tiers of WR. If Johnson were a sure thing, I wouldn't hesitate nearly as much.
I'd rather have an RB1 in the first, Fitz out wide and grab a couple RBs later to rotate in at RB2.
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