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My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:02 pm

Kareighuis wrote: The problem- looking at ADPs, I'd miss out on Fitzgerald and Johnson and likely the top couple of tiers of WR. If Johnson were a sure thing, I wouldn't hesitate nearly as much.
I'd rather have an RB1 in the first, Fitz out wide and grab a couple RBs later to rotate in at RB2.



Sorry for going off on a tangent, but I don't understand the love for Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson as WR1/WR2 in the first/early second this year. To me, WR1s go very deep this year and you can get equivalent talent late into the 3rd round versus early in the 2nd. The consensus #1/#2 WRs are not even in my top5 WRs this year..

Larry Fitzgerald has a known injury prone and old QB at the helm right now. Even with Fitzgerald's extended track record of success there is some concern when your starting QB has a good chance of being replaced at some point during the year. And even with Warner, Fitzgerald has never really been an elite WR. The guy averages like 1400/10 when he stays healthy for an entire season. While very good, those numbers are not elite and not deserving of a 1st round draft pick. Braylon Edwards scored 16 TDs two seasons ago, 4 more than Fitzgerald's career best, and that guy has fallen off the map into the 4th and 5th rounds of drafts. To me THAT is upside. 1400/10 type numbers are what you can get out of a guy like Chad Johnson. Bottomline, those numbers are not going to replace a RB1 or even come close to replacing stud RB numbers. Fitzgerald is a very safe WR1 pick, but I don't see the upside. And is he still safe if you consider Warner and the Madden Curse (instant downgrade IMO) and the Super Bowl loser curse? If I wanted to gamble on a guy, give me Randy Moss a round later and a chance at 20 TDs instead of 10. Give me Steve Smith maybe 2 rounds later who I bet outproduces Fitz this year.

Andre Johnson's career best touchdown totals in a season is 8. How is this guy going as WR#2 overall and being debated as a RB replacement pick? I've loved this guys talent and been a believer for a long time, but that ranking is ridiculous IMO. That's all I have to say on that.

I have no problems drafting either of these guys as mid-range WR1s (solid players that will anchor the position), but I highly doubt that either of them will be carrying my team with 100/1 every game like an elite WR should. These two WRs have less stud potential than other WRs and they have equivalent risks as others being drafted later. Why are they in the discussion with potential RB#1 candidates nad surefire WR#1 and WR#2 in most drafts? Why does a player like Steve Smith go so much later than these two? Look at the consensus rankings and ADP all you want, but the justification for the high rankings for Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald is just not there for me. I never saw anyone ranking Chad Johnson WR#1 in the late first round during his heyday. That guy had a longer, stronger, and more consistent track record than either of the aforementioned two at one point in time and only the insane and eccentric took the guy late first and/or ranked him #1 overall.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby LS2throwed » Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:46 pm

And even with Warner, Fitzgerald has never really been an elite WR.



Man, you say something every week that just astonishes me, I just stopped reading after this.


I'm not even going to waste alot of time disputing this, but the guy has been in the league 5 years, in 3 of those 5 he's had 1400+ yards, 10+ TD's, and 100+ catches. If that's not elite please tell me what type of astronomical numbers he needs to put up then.


If Fitzgerald isn't elite, then the only elite WR in the NFL is Randy Moss point blank, Fitz's career resume makes Andre Johnson's look like a joke.



Give me Steve Smith maybe 2 rounds later who I bet outproduces Fitz this year.

Why does a player like Steve Smith go so much later than these two?



Why? Maybe because Steve Smith has had TWO seasons over 1200 yards since 2001, TWO. Oh and he's reached double digit TD's only ONCE in 8 seasons. He's also gotten over 90 receptions just once in his career.


Are you sure your really asking why Steve Smith goes much later? Steve Smith outproducing Fitzgerald? That's funny, this guy has been spotty his entire career, he had one elite season, he was good last year but do you want 6 TD's as your potential? It's ludicrous to even wonder why he goes so much later.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:40 pm

LS2throwed wrote:
And even with Warner, Fitzgerald has never really been an elite WR.



Man, you say something every week that just astonishes me, I just stopped reading after this.


I'm not even going to waste alot of time disputing this, but the guy has been in the league 5 years, in 3 of those 5 he's had 1400+ yards, 10+ TD's, and 100+ catches. If that's not elite please tell me what type of astronomical numbers he needs to put up then.


If Fitzgerald isn't elite, then the only elite WR in the NFL is Randy Moss point blank, Fitz's career resume makes Andre Johnson's look like a joke.


I agree with this statement. Randy Moss is the only elite WR in the NFL right now. In the past guys like Terrell Owens (who averaged something like 13 TDs in partial seasons) and Marvin Harrison (who had a string of 8 seasons with 10+ TDS) were elite WRs who potentially merited a very early draft pick. Larry Fitzgerald hasn't shown the durability, the consistency, or the levels of stud production of WRs in the recent past who went very early in drafts. This is a guy who is good for 1400 yards if both he and Warner manage to avoid an injury, but at the same time his career best is only 12 TDs and his average is closer to 10. Chad Johnson averaged close to 1400 yards and 10 TDs over a 3 or 4 year period similar to Larry Fitzgerald, but very few talked the guy up as WR#1 and the next great superstar in fantasy. I think this year we are seeing a major void in superstar WRs (excepting Randy Moss, a guy who does carry some sizeable risk), and therefore the average fantasy owner is filling the superstar void and putting solid WR#1s in their place (a major mistake IMO). We see even a guy like Calvin Johnson being draft extremely high because people are reaching for the next superstar. That guy is just not there this year. Even a guy like Larry Fitzgerald who is on the verge of being the best fantasy WR in the game has shown that he can be outproduced by another WR on his same team for stretches at a time. In his best year last year, his greatest competition was out for a long stretch of time and that is the major reason behind the increase in TD levels IMO. And even then 1400/12 is not an elite level of production. That is something like what Terrell Owens averaged in his heyday in less than a full slate of games. That is what Marvin Harrison averaged over a long period of years. That is nowhere near the upside of a stud like Larry Fitzgerald. Those are Torry Holt and Chad Johnson production levels. Very good, but not potentially game changing. Bottomline, Larry Fitzgerald doesn't have the track record of being a game changer, he isn't worth an extremely high pick this year especially not with the risk factors he carries.


Give me Steve Smith maybe 2 rounds later who I bet outproduces Fitz this year.

Why does a player like Steve Smith go so much later than these two?



Why? Maybe because Steve Smith has had TWO seasons over 1200 yards since 2001, TWO. Oh and he's reached double digit TD's only ONCE in 8 seasons. He's also gotten over 90 receptions just once in his career.



Points per game, Steve Smith is just as good of a receiver as Larry Fitzgerald (who has also not been injury free throughout his career). Smith is a guy with a long track record of success on the par of 100 yards per game and a decent chance of a TD per game. And unlike Fitzgerald, the guy does have an elite season under his belt (1600/12). I rate them as comparable receivers. The guy only had 6 TDs last year, but then again he only played in 14 games and he put up nearly 1500 yards. If we are using this type of analysis, why not include Fitzgerald's 2006 season while you are at it, he only had 6 that year as well AND less than 1000 yards.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Instinctive » Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:48 pm

P.S.

Steve SMithg tackled at the 1 yd line 4 times last year.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby biju » Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:38 pm

I think the idea of grabbing WRs earlier than usually is the mark of the fantasy football game changing because of RBBCs. We have fewer and fewer true feature backs which means the value of WRs moves up. After the elite RBs are off the board people are seeing the value in taking a solid WR1 instead of that RB that shouldn't go until round 3.

For the sake of trying to figure out this "elite" status I think it kind of depends on what you consider an elite receiver vs. an elite season for a receiver. But I think it's important to decide what you *think* should be considered the benchmarks for both.

Going by the 1,600/12 (232 fantasy pts.) benchmark there have been 9 elite seasons in the past decade.

Randy Moss - 2007, 2003, 2001
Marvin Harrison - 2002, 2001, 1999
Muhsin Muhammad - 2004
Torry Holt - 2003
Terrell Owens - 2001

The fact that an "elite" season has been reached 9 times over 10 years seems to me that this is probably pretty close to being the right benchmark for an elite season.

The next question is how someone classifies as an "elite player". Clearly there have been cases of this based merely on whether you've had multiple elite seasons as given by Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison. Although it should be noted that just because past performance has put you in an elite status certainly doesn't push you into an automatic elite state going forward. Clearly if Marvin Harrison were to play in 2009 we wouldn't write his name in pen as a first round pick. Or even within the first 8 rounds possibly. Also it's worth mentioning that just because you have an elite year certainly doesn't automatically put you into that status as per Muhsin Muhammad.

I'm pretty certain that Terrell Owens was widely considered an elite player as recently as two years ago and I suspect that Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne have been called as such too. But that's because of their consistency. Here are those receiver's best 3 year averages and the years they did them.

Code: Select all
Player             Yards   TDs    Years
----------------   -----   ----   -----
Marvin Harrison    1,534   13.6   99-01
Randy Moss         1,387   14.3   98-00
Terrell Owens      1,387   14.0   00-02
Torry Holt         1,466   10.3   03-05
Reggie Wayne       1,321    8.3   06-08
Larry Fitzgerald   1,262    9.3   06-08


I think it's clear to say that Marvin Harrison is top of the class here and if Randy Moss is going to have the elite sigma attached so should Terrell Owens. Torry Holt takes a bit of a dip but from a fantasy points perspective is only 2.7 TDs off of T.O.'s mark. That's not too bad. I threw in Reggie Wayne above specifically to show that while he's had a good run for a while, he clearly does not stack up well against the other guys.

Larry Fitzgerald also clearly doesn't belong in the elite status...yet. The "rough" elite 3 year average seems to be 1,400 yards and the rough average for TDs seems to be around 14. If you're going to consider Holt as having an elite run from 03-05 then it should be noted that Fitzgerald would be able to make this mark by hitting an average of 1,400/11 from the 07-09 span. That means he would need to get 1,360 yards and 11 TDs in 2009. To bump himself up to the Moss/Harrison/Owens status he'd need a considerable bump in TDs this year: 20 TDs in 2009 just to hit that average. I'm not saying it can't happen, but the likelihood of it has got to be next to zero.

That's also not to say that Fitzgerald couldn't hit that mark with a year span that doesn't start with 2007 as well.

In all I think you're actually on to *something*, I'm just not sure that I agree with how it applies to drafting because of the shift towards committee rushing.

;-D
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Retet » Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:01 pm

Don't you all think that drafting a top WR early is also a way for people to shield against busts? Many round 1 RBs bust each year, so if I'm drafting towards the back of a 10 or 12 person draft, and I'm looking at DeAngelo. . . Jacobs. . .or Fitz or Moss, I have a really good feeling that in Moss or Fitz, my pick will be solid, while the risk of a bust for the RBs is greater. In some ways, drafting in the latter portions of the early rounds is at least partially about safety. . . .weekly value, rather than pure stud potential. Just a thought.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:22 pm

Retet wrote:Don't you all think that drafting a top WR early is also a way for people to shield against busts? Many round 1 RBs bust each year, so if I'm drafting towards the back of a 10 or 12 person draft, and I'm looking at DeAngelo. . . Jacobs. . .or Fitz or Moss, I have a really good feeling that in Moss or Fitz, my pick will be solid, while the risk of a bust for the RBs is greater. In some ways, drafting in the latter portions of the early rounds is at least partially about safety. . . .weekly value, rather than pure stud potential. Just a thought.


I agree. Regardless of where I'm drafting, I'm looking to minimize risk early in the draft and take more chances the deeper into the draft we go.
Fitz and AJ probably can't be considered elite WRs from a historical perspective. One could argue that they have among the greatest chances to produce elite performances this season of all NFL WRs.
The issue is that they pose less risk than: a) other WRs; b) available RBs. You and I might disagree with one or both of those points, but I believe that's the logic.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby joejlitz » Thu Jul 02, 2009 7:20 am

Retet wrote:Don't you all think that drafting a top WR early is also a way for people to shield against busts? Many round 1 RBs bust each year, so if I'm drafting towards the back of a 10 or 12 person draft, and I'm looking at DeAngelo. . . Jacobs. . .or Fitz or Moss, I have a really good feeling that in Moss or Fitz, my pick will be solid, while the risk of a bust for the RBs is greater. In some ways, drafting in the latter portions of the early rounds is at least partially about safety. . . .weekly value, rather than pure stud potential. Just a thought.

Awesome point, that wasn't brought up before. I usually go BPA and those with a successful track record over the past few years are often considered safer picks. I try to draft a solid team every year and find my gems later in the draft and I compete every year this way.
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jul 02, 2009 12:34 pm

biju wrote:I think the idea of grabbing WRs earlier than usually is the mark of the fantasy football game changing because of RBBCs. We have fewer and fewer true feature backs which means the value of WRs moves up. After the elite RBs are off the board people are seeing the value in taking a solid WR1 instead of that RB that shouldn't go until round 3.



I think the main issue here is that you're grabbing a marginally better WR#1 ahead of guys like Clinton Portis, Ladanian Tomlinson, and Brian Westbrook instead of choosing a comparable WR talent over of Kevin Smith, Ryan Grant, and Pierre Thomas. Consistency is one thing, but gaining a true advantage is another. Boldin was on a torried pace last year before injuries and he goes nowhere near Fitzgerald in drafts. Yet, you can choose Fitzgerald and a guy like Ryan Grant or you can have Clinton Portis and Boldin. It's pretty clear which side of the fence I'm on.

PS - How can you consider a madden cursed player safe? I would think that any fantasy football player has some inclination towards supersition. Super Bowl loser curse? Kurt Warner multiple concussion curse? The guy has a lot of risk attached. Unlike your classic Torry Holt, the guy doesn't have a long string of consistent production, he has been injured on a couple occasions already in his somewhat short career. On paper, Fitzgerald is a solid WR#1, but then again so are a host of other players that go later in drafts. Reggie Wayne was the same type of player last year and I advocated bypassing him as well. Andre Johnson had a similar outlook as last year, but you could draft him sometimes outside of the top10 WRs, same with Calvin Johnson. Those players are all the same, just the perceived value changed after their respective career years. Those guys are all very good WRs, but they don't deserve WR1/2/3 consideration late first round consideration like a guy like Randy Moss. There is no value this year drafting a WR extremely early because the consistent studs just don't exist anymore and the advantage gained is minimal IMO. I think you're almost better off taking a Drew Brees despite the monumental gap between productive WRs and QBs available later in drafts..
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Re: My top five 09-10 RB picks, plus two busts.

Postby Azrael » Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:09 pm

Kensat30 wrote: I think you're almost better off taking a Drew Brees despite the monumental gap between productive WRs and QBs available later in drafts..


I'm very nearly in agreement with this statement. I am typically a guy who advocates waiting on QBs but with the number of contributing RBs and sometimes feature backs that are falling into the 5th and 6th rounds, I'm not sure it's such a bad idea to spend a 2nd rounder on Brees or Brady, especially in 6pt TD leagues. The opportunities for finding players with potential at other positions later in the draft almost warrants selecting a surefire stud QB early.
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