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Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:09 pm

Let me preface this by saying that I did a lot of work into looking at each team and each RB corps to decide how I thought the touches would be divided and then went through each guy and looked at how effective I thought each guy would be with the touches he got to determine their final projections. These aren't "final" by any means, but at this point this is my best guess on how I think things will go.

I largely I left these projections alone and went with how the projections ended up landing. I was pretty surprised by some of the results but here goes. Please note that these are PROJECTIONS for how I feel the end of the year final numbers will play out, not necessarily where I would draft these particular players and in what order.

This is for a re-draft.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - SD

Projections:
309 Carries for 1389 Yards (4.5 ypc), 13 TDs
55 Receptions for 440 yards, 3 TDs
333.9 FP, 20.9 PPG

I know this is a much different guy sitting atop the rankings than most are used to or even that I expected to be there when I finished with my projections. I even did my best to temper my expectations of LT and not predict a "career year" or even one of his better seasons in the league but this is where I ended up. Considering he had 12 TDs in an injury ridden season and has had below 15 TDs just twice in his career, projecting 16 total TDs is nowhere near outlandish and his 4.5 ypc I have him at is actually a little below his average over the past 3 seasons and right at his average over the past 4 seasons. He has never been below 50 receptions in a season in his career so he's pretty much a lock for that and he's averaged well over 8 yards per reception over the past 3 seasons. These are rather reasonable and mild numbers overall for a guy of his caliber and he's still projected to be the best RB on my list, pretty interested to see him here and points to the idea that he's probably a steal in nearly every draft this season.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC

Projections:
276 Carries for 1132 yards, 13 TDs (4.1 ypc)
60 Receptions for 540 yards, 4 TDs
329.2 FP, 20.6 PPG

Most of you who have seen me debate in the MJD discussion know that I'm not huge on him...in fact I think that if he really gets any more of a heavier workload than I have him down for that he won't last the season. But if he's hanging in the 250-275 carry range then I think he can be one of the better PPR RBs this year. The TDs I have him projected for are based on what he's been able to do in recent years...I'm a little hesitant that he'll reach too high on the TDs but he very well could and his high reception totals easily land him top 5. His YPC had dipped in each season that he's been in this league and I doubt that more carries will help his ypc rise at all so I have it dropping from 4.2 last season to 4.1 this year....I would probably have dropped it further if not for the upgrades along the offensive line for JAC this season.

3. Steven Jackson - STL

Projections:
319 Carries for 1339 Yards, 10 TDs (4.2 ypc)
60 Receptions for 510 Yards, 1 TD
310.9 FP, 19.4 PPG

This guy just flat out produces when he's out there on the field and the chances are very high that this offense will heavily feature him this season. The only question is whether he stays healthy or not for the whole season...I think he could personally as he hasn't been really that far off in recent years having logged 55 games in the past 4 seasons (out of 64 possible). He's been hurt more than most would like but he hasn't been so terrible that it's outlandish to think he could be healthy for a whole season. The 4.2 ypc is actually lower than his career average but it's a moderate guess for that and he's always been a high reception guy so his value in PPR is significantly higher than in non-PPR. Healthy for a whole season his TD numbers could end up being higher than the 11 total that I have him down for here.

4. Matt Forte - CHI

Projections:
308 Carries for 1263 Yards, 10 TDs (4.1 ypc)
55 Receptions for 440 Yards, 3 TDs
303.3 FP, 19.0 PPG

He's a guy that some are very high on and others are either low or don't really know what to think. He really wasn't strikingly outstanding last season for all the buzz he is receiving but the biggest thing is that he got plenty of touches. That's something that won't change this season which is what puts him up this high in these rankings. Not a lot of guys out there that you can be pretty confident in projecting 350+ touches and who had double digit TDs as a rookie. I've got his touches dipping from last year but his ypc being a bit higher with the arrival of a legitimate passing threat and his yards per catch are up slightly. The addition of Jay Cutler helps him a lot...without that addition he wouldn't be top 5 for me in these rankings but even without the greatest receiving threats, Cutler is enough to keep defenses from focusing in on him as much as they were able to last year.

5. Adrian Peterson - MIN

Projections:
331 Carries for 1588 Yards, 13 TDs (4.8 ypc)
25 Receptions for 188 Yards, 1 TD
286.5 FP, 17.9 PPG

Might seem a bit odd to have him so low but the plain fact of the matter is that he just doesn't catch that many passes which means that his value can only be so high in full PPR leagues. He rises significantly in my non-PPR rankings but he just isn't better at everything else enough to make up for his lack of production in the passing game. If that becomes a bigger part of his game I could see him easily being the top guy even in PPR but for now, this is where he stands as he's only had 40 total receptions in the last 2 seasons combined and last season had a measly 6.0 yards per reception average.

6. Frank Gore - SF

Projections:
285 Carries for 1283 Yards, 8 TDs (4.5 ypc)
50 Receptions for 415 Yards, 2 TDs
279.8 FP, 17.5 PPG

Another guy with whom I was surprised to see so high when the dust settled but considering how much of the offense this year will revolve around the running game and that he's a great threat as a receiving back as well and you have to love him this year. I have been waiting and waiting for those knees to give out on him and ruin his career as a back as I've felt they would at some point but he's been surprisingly healthy overall and has missed just 3 games in 3 seasons as the starter. I think he could be in for a great season this year.

7. Marion Barber - DAL

Projections:
234 Carries for 1075 Yards, 11 TDs (4.6 ypc)
50 Receptions for 375 Yards, 2 TDs
273.0 FP, 17.1 PPG

Yet another guy I've never really been that high on but this season I think we'll see him perform above the level that he's drafted. I think it was a mistake for them to try to significantly expand his role seeing how impressively effective he was in his former role as a part time guy and I think we'll see them get back to that this year. I see Dallas being much more of a running/ball control team this year without TO and to take some pressure off of Tony Romo. I don't really see him having another 15+ TD season like he did in 2006 in that partial role but I could see his TDs in the 12-14 range potentially.

8. Chris Johnson - TEN

Projections:
285 Carries for 1368 Yards, 8 TDs (4.8 ypc)
40 Receptions for 260 Yards, 2 TDs
262.8 FP, 16.4 PPG

I think we'll see more of Chris Johnson and a little bit less of LenDale White this season...I currently have the split at about 63/37 towards Johnson between the two of them. He benefits from the fact that Tennessee will run the ball so much (they pretty much have to) and so he'll get his fair share of touches and while I don't expect his TD levels to be sky high, he's got solid value in the top 10. I think he's being overdrafted personally at the moment though as I have seen him taken in the top 5 of many drafts.

9. DeAngelo Williams - CAR

Projections:
235 Carries for 1175 Yards, 12 TDs (5.0 ypc)
35 Receptions for 260 Yards, 2 TDs
262.5 FP, 16.4 PPG

I think that DeAngelo Williams has the single highest chance of busting for where he's being taken in drafts this season. I don't know that it's necessarily a statement about his talent as I've always like him, but he can only keep a beast like Jonathan Stewart at bay for so long before he breaks out and takes a larger portion of the load. He only had 273 carries last season which means that I'm simply estimating a 2.4 carry per game decrease that will probably go to Stewart instead. He hasn't been as big of a threat catching passes and most thought coming out of college but he'll still get you a respectable amount and maybe a TD or two along the way there too. Don't expect the HUGE TD numbers again though next season...I'm not even positive he'll reach the 14 I have him down for.

10. Derrick Ward - TB

Projections:
252 Carries for 1160 Yards, 7 TDs (4.6 ypc)
50 Receptions for 420 Yards, 2 TDs
262.0 FP, 16.4 PPG

This is something of an unknown with his move to Tampa this season but he definitely has the tools to be a successful running back and he'll get the opportunity there and should receive a good number of plays as the 3rd down back as well with his excellent receiving skills coming out of the backfield. I wouldn't expect double digit TDs but I also wouldn't be surprised if he came close.

11. Clinton Portis - WAS

Projections:
333 Carries for 1366 Yards (4.1 ypc), 10 TDs
35 Receptions for 280 yards, 0 TDs
259.6 FP, 16.2 PPG

Now to Clinton Portis...the guy everyone is always hesitant about drafting early but everyone wants when the season gets going. I wonder if there's a stat for most traded for guy over the past few seasons...I feel like Portis would be one of the highest in that. He's a guy who you pretty much know what you're going to get with him...he'll get his 325+ carries, be over 1500 total yards, and probably score double digit TDs. Probably a guy I would consider one of the "safer" late first or early 2nd round picks going in drafts.

12. Brian Westbrook - PHI

Projections: (14 games)
204 Carries for 900 Yards (4.4 ypc), 6 TDs
61 Receptions for 470 yards, 4 TDs
258 FP, 18.4 PPG

And now...the guy everyone has been talking about. This is, of course as many of you know, projected over just 14 games as he has never played a full season in this league, is turning 30, has had off season surgery, and has missed an average of 2 games per year since he became the starter for Philly. His PPG would put him in the top 5 because he's still a very good PPR guy but the risk is definitely there, this season as much or more than ever. His numbers were down from last season as well from a yardage standpoint tying his worst yards per carry average of his career (4.0) and career worst yards per reception average on top of having his worst reception total of his career and lowest receiving yards total since he became their starter. The combination of all these things leaves me skeptical about his production this season which all combined to land him outside the top 10 for these projections.

13. Steve Slaton - HOU

Projections:
273 Carries for 1255 Yards (4.6 ypc), 7 TDs
45 Receptions for 338 yards, 1 TD
252.2 FP, 15.8 PPG

Others have a bit higher expectations for him this season but I really don't know that I see too much more than his TDs being able to go much higher....I don't see him as a perennial double digit TD guy though and that's what had me put him dropping a couple to just 8 TDs this year from 10 last year. I have his ypc dropping slightly but it will still be a very solid 4.6 and I think he's one of the guys here that has a good deal more upside potentially than what he's listed at here.

14. Reggie Bush - NO

Projections:
165 Carries for 627 Yards (3.8 ypc), 5 TDs
75 Receptions for 638 yards, 3 TDs
249.5 FP, 15.6 PPG

He's a guy that people tend to reach for in PPR leagues but he does actually have some good value in these leagues as opposed to his weak value in non-ppr leagues. You can pretty much bet on just as many receiving yards as rushing yards and he'll be much more effective with his receptions than his carries but he's explosive and could very well be a great RB in PPR leagues if he's able to get his ypc up a bit and surprise on his TD total. Gets a bigger boost in leagues that award return yardage as well.

15. Kevin Smith - DET

Projections:
263 Carries for 1129 Yards (4.3 ypc), 9 TDs
45 Receptions for 315 yards, 1 TD
249.4 FP, 15.6 PPG

Was one of the few bright spots on a terrible Lions team last year...the team will be improved this season and the chances are that they are going to rely on Smith a good deal this season. He'll get his fair share of receptions too so he's got some nice value in PPR leagues.

16. Pierre Thomas - NO

Projections:
220 Carries for 1056 Yards (4.8 ypc), 11 TDs
35 Receptions for 298 yards, 2 TDs
248.8 FP, 15.5 PPG

The other half of the Saints running game...the fact that the Saints haven't went out and really even tried to get anyone else at RB says that they're happy with what they have currently which is the tandem of Bush and Thomas. Thomas will get the majority of the carries and Bush will be used in a variety of different ways and with how well he's ran in the past for them, he should be pretty productive with the touches he gets.

17. Michael Turner - ATL

Projections:
306 Carries for 1408 Yards (4.6 ypc), 15 TDs
10 Receptions for 70 yards, 0 TDs
247.8 FP, 15.5 PPG

Might be the most surprising entry in this top 20 to be honest...I couldn't believe how little he is used in the passing game (just 13 receptions in 4 seasons) and in PPR, if you can't at least catch a few passes here or there each game, your value plummets. I don't think we'll see them give him the ball as many times as they did last year...and I don't think they'll run as much overall which leaves him with fewer carries than he had last season but I bumped up his ypc from 4.5 to 4.6 because of it. Because of the fewer touches I have him with a couple fewer TDs but still an excellent 15 and this is where he ended up. For what it's worth, however, only .3 points per game separates players 13-17 in these projections so he's not really "that" far down.

18. Ronnie Brown - MIA

Projections:
262 Carries for 1154 Yards (4.4 ypc), 9 TDs
35 Receptions for 280 yards, 2 TDs
244.4 FP, 15.3 PPG

It was somewhat disappointing last season to see just how little he was used when we've seen how productive he can be but it's understandable...he's had trouble staying healthy when he's gotten a significant workload as last season was his first year playing all 16 games. Only 214 carries last year but I think he'll get a bit more of a prominent role with Ricky fading back a bit but he's still not really a top 15 RB at the moment because he's in the very definition of a RBBC.

19. Brandon Jacobs - NYG

Projections:
274 Carries for 1313 Yards (4.8 ypc), 14 TDs
10 Receptions for 60 yards, 0 TDs
231.3 FP, 14.5 PPG

Could be very good if he can make it through the whole season as he's a TD machine but he's rarely, if ever, used in the receiving game. He had 23 receptions 2 seasons ago but that is bookended by seasons of 11 receptions 3 years ago and just 6 receptions all of last season. I wouldn't depend on him for much production in that realm.

20. Knowshon Moreno - DEN

Projections:
240 Carries for 1056 Yards (4.4 ypc), 8 TDs
35 Receptions for 280 yards, 2 TDs
228.6 FP, 14.3 PPG

The only rookie to fall into these top 20 rankings. I don't really expect Denver to be that good but with the changes at QB and the possible loss of Brandon Marshall should that happen, I think we'll see them go the route of the Raiders and run run run as much as they can to try to take pressure off of their defense and QB. Moreno probably won't see a workload like that of Matt Forte as a rookie, but I could see him being reasonably productive on the ground and he's a good receiving back as well which boosts his value a bit in a PPR league. The TDs could end up being a stretch but I think he's got a good enough blend of speed and power to be an effective guy down near the goal line.

Just Missed:
21. Ryan Grant - GB (315 car for 1323 yds, 8 TDs; 25 rec for 163 yds, 1 TD) - 227.6, 14.2
22. Joseph Addai - IND (208 car for 892 yds, 8 TDs; 40 rec for 340 yds, 2 TDs) - 223.2, 14.0
23. Darren McFadden - OAK (212 car for 973 yds, 5 TDs; 40 rec for 360 yds, 2 TDs) - 215.3, 13.5
24. Larry Johnson - KC (236 car for 1060 yds, 10 TDs; 25 rec for 163 yds, 1 TD) - 213.3, 13.3
25. Cedric Benson - CIN (260 car for 988 yds, 6 TDs; 30 rec for 270 yds, 1 TD) - 197.8, 12.4
Last edited by mattb47 on Sun Jul 05, 2009 3:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby smackthefirst » Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:16 pm

I haven't had a chance to read through them all but I immediately wanted to say thank you for having the conviction to look at LT's numbers from last year, his horrible year by all accounts, and realize he was still one of the best backs and putting him back at least in the top 3 for this year in a redraft. I personally am trying as hard as I can to trade back in the first round as far as I can and still feel comfortable with LT falling to me and grabbing as many extra or improved picks as I can.
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Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:23 pm

smackthefirst wrote:I haven't had a chance to read through them all but I immediately wanted to say thank you for having the conviction to look at LT's numbers from last year, his horrible year by all accounts, and realize he was still one of the best backs and putting him back at least in the top 3 for this year in a redraft. I personally am trying as hard as I can to trade back in the first round as far as I can and still feel comfortable with LT falling to me and grabbing as many extra or improved picks as I can.


I actually just grabbed him at #5 in a cafe .5 ppr redraft league and I couldn't be happier with the pick...I'd take him top 3 in a league like that so getting him at 5 was great for me.

I think people have bought into too much the talk about how bad his season was and fail to really look at the numbers and see what he actually did. The guy had turf toe all season (a lot of guys aren't even able to play with that much less put up those numbers) and if you watched the last game of the season last year when they said his turf toe was finally healed, he looked like the old LT all over again with the same burst and quickness we've all come to know and love from him. I think he could easily outperform the numbers I have for him here even but I figured a moderate estimate would be best.
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Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby mrblitz » Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:25 pm

Very nice list Matt. Thanks for the interesting read. Looking forward to the rest of the list. ;-D
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Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby eagles21 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:06 pm

Nice list Matt. Despite me picking Peterson first in our .5 PPR league, I like that you rated him 5th. Chester Taylor had 45 receptions last year, so it's pretty evident that it is not the mediocre QB or coaching philosophy of the Vikings that has attributed to the somewhat unapparent receiving statistics of Peterson over the last 2 years.

I will say that in 2007, Taylor did not have nearly as many receptions as he did in 2008, and Adrian was targeted 10 more times last year then he was in 07, so Minnesota is clearly trying to incorporate their RB's more into the passing game, which could help ADP this year if this continues.
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Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby My team is injured » Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:47 pm

No real gripes with your top 5 but I would have a completely different 6-10. Some comments:

Overall, I think your projections are too conservative, at least if you're assuming 16 games played for each RB (I always do projections based on this assumption and then adjust a player's ranking based on injury risk, etc.).

In regards to LT, I wouldn't quite pencil him in as a lock for 50 receptions. Norv was pulling LT a lot last year on 3rd down for Sproles and while I still see LT getting 300+ carries, I do think he'll lose some catches to Sproles. LT will still get his share of receptions but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up with only 40 catches.

As for your 6-10, I only have 2 of the same in cj and gore. I have deangelo just outside looking in (and that's even with putting him substantially higher than I project his #s), mbIII slightly lower, and ward not even sniffing top 10 though I'm sure you know you're going out on a limb with that one.

And I don't see any way westbrook shouldn't be in a PPR top 10, injury risk or not. Even with relatively conservative projections for westbrook, I have him as the #2 projected RB behind MJD. I don't see how you can have him projected to less than 262 FPs unless you're projecting based on him missing several games (which I don't think you are as you have s-jax high despite the injury history).

The one other guy who I think should be included is Slaton. He has little to no competition for carries at RB and with his homerun ability, he'll likely average well over 4 YPC even if he gets stuffed a lot at the line. Throw in his share of TDs and catches and I think he projects similarly to Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson.
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Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:39 pm

My team is injured wrote:No real gripes with your top 5 but I would have a completely different 6-10. Some comments:

Overall, I think your projections are too conservative, at least if you're assuming 16 games played for each RB (I always do projections based on this assumption and then adjust a player's ranking based on injury risk, etc.).

In regards to LT, I wouldn't quite pencil him in as a lock for 50 receptions. Norv was pulling LT a lot last year on 3rd down for Sproles and while I still see LT getting 300+ carries, I do think he'll lose some catches to Sproles. LT will still get his share of receptions but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up with only 40 catches.


Well...first of all, like everyone knows LT was banged up all season last year and so him getting pulled on some 3rd downs is hardly something surprising...and he STILL got over 50 receptions because he's NEVER not had it. That, combined with the fact that he's an absolutely excellent receiving back, is more than enough for me to project him easily over 50 receptions yet again.

Secondly...I know that I can't predict accurately when guys have absolute breakout seasons and FAR outperform what is expected of them so that's why no one has absolutely outlandish projections...you can't draft guys with the assumption that they'll be performing with crazy high numbers. These are projections based on an analysis of each individual team, how much they will likely run, who will get the carries, and what history would most likely project them to be able to do with those carries and receptions. I'm pretty happy with my projections quite honestly as I know how much work I put into it.

As for your 6-10, I only have 2 of the same in cj and gore. I have deangelo just outside looking in (and that's even with putting him substantially higher than I project his #s), mbIII slightly lower, and ward not even sniffing top 10 though I'm sure you know you're going out on a limb with that one.

And I don't see any way westbrook shouldn't be in a PPR top 10, injury risk or not. Even with relatively conservative projections for westbrook, I have him as the #2 projected RB behind MJD. I don't see how you can have him projected to less than 262 FPs unless you're projecting based on him missing several games (which I don't think you are as you have s-jax high despite the injury history).


Well, while my 16 game projections do have him easily within the top 10 and his ppg for me will place him there, the fact that he's basically starting off the season recovering from an injury AND he's never played a full season makes it impossible for me to place him within the top 10 based on him playing a full 16 game season...it would be ridiculous to do so and so that's what knocks him down in these rankings. I do have him at 12 however, so he's really just outside the top 10 but nonetheless, I don't see him as legitimately being taken as a top 10 RB this season even in redraft leagues.

SJax, while having missed some games in the past couple seasons (just 2 in each), has in fact played a full season in his career as the starter AND with more touches than Westbrook has ever had in a season. He's also not recovering from an injury that he had repaired in this very off season and is without the rumors that he may or may not be back right in time for the season to start. He also didn't have his team draft a RB who has some very similar traits to that of Westbrook and has similar strengths...that is a sign that they realize the end is coming for him and they know he won't ever last a full season.

As far as Ward is concerned...I don't think his numbers are really that farfetched to be honest. I have him at a modest 53% of the team's total carries (just 57% of the RB carries). He had 182 carries last season so we're talking about 4 more per game which drops his ypc from the very high 5.6 to a still very good 5.0 (I could see that being a bit lower, but he's a very explosive runner). He also had 41 receptions last season in a part time role as the backup guy...the Bucs didn't bring him in to be a backup and they'll use him plenty this year. I think he could end up being a steal in a lot of drafts because people are just forgetting about him. What exactly is such a huge reach about his numbers I have there?

The one other guy who I think should be included is Slaton. He has little to no competition for carries at RB and with his homerun ability, he'll likely average well over 4 YPC even if he gets stuffed a lot at the line. Throw in his share of TDs and catches and I think he projects similarly to Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson.


I actually have Slaton with good numbers...I have him down for 273 carries (over 60% of his team's overall carries including those by the QB and anyone else, and about 70% of the carries within the RBs which is plenty) and 1255 yards (4.6 ypc) along with 45 receptions for another 338 yards. The problem is that I don't think he's going to be a guy who gets a lot of TDs...sure he'll have some big runs and things but that only takes you so far when you look at TDs. Just look at a guy like Willie Parker, they are similar in build, both small speedy RBs and while he had a big season with 16 total TDs in 06, he's had 7 combined in the next 2 seasons. Not saying it will be that big of a dip but it's just an example of how a back based on speed and big runs won't necessarily keep running off those big plays and score double digit TDs. That's why he's on the outside looking in as far as the top 10 goes.
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Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:40 pm

eagles21 wrote:Nice list Matt. Despite me picking Peterson first in our .5 PPR league, I like that you rated him 5th. Chester Taylor had 45 receptions last year, so it's pretty evident that it is not the mediocre QB or coaching philosophy of the Vikings that has attributed to the somewhat unapparent receiving statistics of Peterson over the last 2 years.

I will say that in 2007, Taylor did not have nearly as many receptions as he did in 2008, and Adrian was targeted 10 more times last year then he was in 07, so Minnesota is clearly trying to incorporate their RB's more into the passing game, which could help ADP this year if this continues.


I agree...I don't really see why Peterson couldn't be at least a solid receiving back if they'd use him in that way more but for whatever reason that's not his role on the team. If that changes, then this list changes completely.
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Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby My team is injured » Thu Jul 02, 2009 12:20 pm

mattb47 wrote:Well, while my 16 game projections do have him easily within the top 10 and his ppg for me will place him there, the fact that he's basically starting off the season recovering from an injury AND he's never played a full season makes it impossible for me to place him within the top 10 based on him playing a full 16 game season...it would be ridiculous to do so and so that's what knocks him down in these rankings. I do have him at 12 however, so he's really just outside the top 10 but nonetheless, I don't see him as legitimately being taken as a top 10 RB this season even in redraft leagues.

SJax, while having missed some games in the past couple seasons (just 2 in each), has in fact played a full season in his career as the starter AND with more touches than Westbrook has ever had in a season. He's also not recovering from an injury that he had repaired in this very off season and is without the rumors that he may or may not be back right in time for the season to start. He also didn't have his team draft a RB who has some very similar traits to that of Westbrook and has similar strengths...that is a sign that they realize the end is coming for him and they know he won't ever last a full season.


If I'm drafting at 10 in a redraft PPR league and Westbrook is available, I'm doing cartwheels. He's been a beast in terms of PPG average for years in PPR leagues and if it wasn't for injury concerns he would go top 3 every year.

Let's say you predict Westbrook to only play 12 games. I'd think even most people with a pessimistic view on him would give him that much. Let's put him at a conservative 19 PPG, which is less than he's averaged each of the past 5 seasons as the Eagle's main RB. Even with estimates on games played and points per game on the conservative side, I think the numbers still merit taking him top 10. You can then plug in a replacement RB (say 10 PPG) for the 4 games B-West misses and get more points out of your RB1 than you would if you drafted the 8-10 guys on your board. And again, all this is what I would consider a pessimistic outlook for westbrook whereas the upside has him as the potential #1 RB.

As for his injury concerns, I think they're overblown, both for his past and this upcoming season. While it's true that he's never played all 16 games, in his 5 years as a starter, he missed only 1 game due to injury in 3 of the seasons, 2 games last year, and 4 games in 2005. At 9 games missed over 5 years, I'll take the injury risks for the points per game numbers he puts up. In regards to this season, we'll have a better feel on how he is come training camp and the pre-season but I don't anticipate him being hindered at all to start the regular season.

As for drafting Mccoy, the Eagles did the same thing with Moats a few years ago and it didn't change how they used Westbrook. The Eagles took Mccoy for a number of reasons including a desperate need for depth at RB after losing Buck (I think they should also sign another RB to replace booker). I expect Mccoy to be better than Moats and potentially replace Westbrook down the line but he's nothing more than a backup right now as long as Westbrook is healthy.

Question for you, projections aside, you're really drafting Ward over Westbrook?
All of my analysis is based on PPR
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Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby programatik » Thu Jul 02, 2009 12:31 pm

I completely understand your reasoning on Westbrook. It's the same reasoning that has been used before, and every year you're absolutely correct.

My memory is foggy, however, as I've usually nabbed Westy for the past few years I can't remember him missing any playoff games. Westy will miss a few games during the regular season, and if you're lucky they will coincide with his bye week. So if you are worried about barely making it into the playoffs than he might not be a risk you can afford. However, if you have a decent backup and you can survive those weeks as than you're golden. I always seem to be able to secure my playoff spot without too much worry so I accept the risk. I'm probably just lucky...

My scoring system always seems to put Westy near the top 3 for PPG (always ppr), even though he falls down the list in terms of total points. With that in mind, he's a very valuable asset come playoff time. In the strongest division in football, it's almost guaranteed that all, or at least 3 of 4, teams will be fighting for a playoff spot and/or field advantage. I.E. not taking it easy as some Colts teams have done in years past when you get to week 15/16.

You just have to know that going into your season with Westbrook to ignore the probables and questionables, because he has them every week. You also have to know that he will sit for ~3 games during the season. If you can survive the down times, he will most often reward the faithful.

With all of that being said, ranking him outside the top 10 is most likely the best place for him as you did above. I'll probably continue to reach for him if I don't think he'll fall because to me, he's just that good.
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