Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby Kareighuis » Mon Jul 06, 2009 1:51 pm

Two things people don't seem taking into account:
1) This is not the order in which you say people should draft. Just like last year, when there was no way you would draft DAW 1st overall, Thomas Jones 3rd overall, as they finished in many of my leagues.
2) Given the "not-a-draft-list" nature of these projections, this can help one in breaking the bottlenecks, like who to take #2 overall, or who to target in the later rounds.
2) These are personal projections. If Matt chooses to project Westy will miss 2 games, so be it. Agree? Fine. Don't? Just as well.

Thanks for giving us a detailed view into the reasoning process of a knowledgeable fantasy football fanatic.
Kareighuis
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 3627
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 14 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby moochman » Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:56 pm

Great work Matt. I hope your projections are solid. I just had my first draft from my first ever league, a 12 team, PPRer. I was in the dreaded 6th slot and almost pissed my pants when LTD was sitting there. I needed a total wardrobe change when I nabbed S Jax on the way back.
I look for both to bounce back nicely this season. Not feeling the same love everyone has for Ward. He has done very nicely sharing duties with Jacobs. So why would Tampa ask him to carry the majority of the carries? I think he will split time with Graham enough to keep his numbers down.
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16300
(Past Year: 80)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby mattb47 » Mon Jul 06, 2009 6:23 pm

moochman wrote:Great work Matt. I hope your projections are solid. I just had my first draft from my first ever league, a 12 team, PPRer. I was in the dreaded 6th slot and almost pissed my pants when LTD was sitting there. I needed a total wardrobe change when I nabbed S Jax on the way back.
I look for both to bounce back nicely this season. Not feeling the same love everyone has for Ward. He has done very nicely sharing duties with Jacobs. So why would Tampa ask him to carry the majority of the carries? I think he will split time with Graham enough to keep his numbers down.


Can you not get a majority of the carries and still share the load? I think Tampa will run the ball a lot next year and while he will split time with Graham, you can't ignore the fact that they are paying him an enormous amount of money (starter's money) and that it's unlikely we'll see him too limited unless he's really struggling with what they're giving him. I mean would it have made sense before last season to give Michael Turner or Matt Forte the huge amount of carries they got? I doubt it, but if you bring someone in to be "your guy" then you give him the rock.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby moochman » Mon Jul 06, 2009 6:42 pm

mattb47 wrote:
moochman wrote:Great work Matt. I hope your projections are solid. I just had my first draft from my first ever league, a 12 team, PPRer. I was in the dreaded 6th slot and almost pissed my pants when LTD was sitting there. I needed a total wardrobe change when I nabbed S Jax on the way back.
I look for both to bounce back nicely this season. Not feeling the same love everyone has for Ward. He has done very nicely sharing duties with Jacobs. So why would Tampa ask him to carry the majority of the carries? I think he will split time with Graham enough to keep his numbers down.


Can you not get a majority of the carries and still share the load? I think Tampa will run the ball a lot next year and while he will split time with Graham, you can't ignore the fact that they are paying him an enormous amount of money (starter's money) and that it's unlikely we'll see him too limited unless he's really struggling with what they're giving him. I mean would it have made sense before last season to give Michael Turner or Matt Forte the huge amount of carries they got? I doubt it, but if you bring someone in to be "your guy" then you give him the rock.



It would stand to reason that they are paying him top dollar, they'll give him the hollar. However, giving him the rock will not include goal-line carries and won't be behind the Giants O-line. Hey, I am wrong all the time.
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16300
(Past Year: 80)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby mattb47 » Mon Jul 06, 2009 6:59 pm

Is there a huge reason why it wouldn't include goal line carries? Graham isn't bad down there but he's by no means a dominant goal line threat and Ward is no slouch when it comes to running between the tackles either.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby LeBron James » Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:13 am

Great list. I think I would have included Chris Wells. I know he's a rookie but he will get a lot of carries with that high-powered offense. That passing game will open up a lot of holes for him.

I also think Darren McFadden will surprise people. He didn't really get a fair shot last year with those turf toe injuries. I believe he is healthy now. And on some games he did play, he was playing through the injury. Don't sleep on McFadden, he is flying way under the radar as well.
LeBron James
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar
Cafe Ranker
Posts: 366
Joined: 28 Jul 2008
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:14 am

Hey Matt, I see that you project Marion Barber in the top10 on around 230 carries, but where does that put Felix Jones in your rankings? I've been reading the occasional blurb that Felix Jones will assume a much larger role in Dallas this year, potentially even pushing Barber into the role he had when Julius Jones was on the team. Could he be the next Derrick Ward type player to Barber's Jacobs, or even the Julius to the Barber?

I see you have both Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush ranked up in the teens, with Bush listed at substantially less than 200 carries. I can agree with the Bush ranking in PPR leagues due to the catches, but it got me to thinking about Felix Jones and his possible potential. What are your thoughts there? I figure since you project Barber you probably project the entire team. I like a lot of your projections for the most part, although I think you have several unproven guys such as Derrick Ward, Kevin Smith, and Pierre Thomas entirely too high. I don't get the universal love for those players (outside of your ballsy Ward projection) instead of say a guy like Darren McFadden (who some had rated similarly to A.Peterson out of college).
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:58 pm

I have Felix grabbing a good 160 carries or so this year (about 10 per game) and I fully expect him to be over 1000 total yards and maybe 5-8 TDs. I don't really have him that high in my rankings though...as I think he'll have some big games where he'll go off for some good totals but I think he'll also have some big time duds along the way as well. I just don't have him catching a ton of passes to be honest....I mean he had just 2 receptions in the 6 games he played last season and I have him projected at about 25 but Barber is the far more proven receiver out of the backfield and will likely see the blunt of those opportunities.

Honestly...some of the guys are unproven that I do have higher but at the same time, a lot of it comes down to opportunity and/or situation. I have McFadden in the top 25 and I could very well see him breaking into the top 20 but I temper my expectations in a situation with a QB who can't make consistent throws and in a somewhat crowded backfield with Fargas and Bush there as well. I do think and expect McFadden to receive a majority of those touches, but I don't think he'll be a big TD guys (which hurts) and I don't know that he'll be at the same level reception wise as someone like Bush when healthy. So he's kind of in a tough spot there.

I personally don't think that he was ever anywhere near as good as Adrian Peterson, but that's not really a big statement about him so much as a statement about how good ADP was/is. He has potential but for now, after I considered situation and all that, that's where he ended up. Kevin Smith is a guy who has already been the starter for a season and has virtually no true competition for a majority of those carries...hard to see him as a stretch but Pierre Thomas is someone who is the beneficiary of New Orleans talking by not doing anything. Because they didn't go after a RB, it's obvious that they think they can move along with the Thomas/Bush combo and since we've seen that Bush struggles to run consistently between the tackles and to stay healthy, natural logic would follow that he will get plenty of opportunities. He's also performed very well when given the chance so there's no real reason to think he'll fail horribly this season.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Mattb47's top 20 PPR RBs - Projections Included

Postby Pats4four » Fri Jul 10, 2009 6:29 pm

Very interesting list you've compiled here Matt and as always, very good reading. I reckon the most interesting part of the whole list is, as others have alluded to, the position of LT as the number one back. I think this underlines a) how good a player LT is in terms of production and conistency and b) the hype that surrounds several backs every season. IT seems to me there are bakcs that people hype up based on one season or even part of a season. I think most people remember LJ when Homes went down, SJax, Alexandeer after his record year, AD more recently after his phenominal rookie year and yet every year LT seems to be ignored somewhat (with exception to after his record year) but he still produces and this season should be no different. I'm not sold on guys like Forte and Williams and I don't see how others have them ranked higher than a proven vet like LT. Just my $.02.
Image
Pats4four
Head Coach
Head Coach

Eagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 1179
Joined: 22 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football

Previous

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 11:17 hours
(and 57 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact