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Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags. "I TOLD YOU SO!"

Postby smfowler » Sun Jul 05, 2009 3:45 am

This is purely my speculation. Opinions will differ, so, LET THE DEBATE BEGIN!


1. Drew Brees (NO) - With the single season passing yardage record on the line, Brees
overlooked a short pass to give him that record and went deep downfield on the last play to
attempt to win a game that 50+ yards out of reach. I cursed him for not being selfish that
day. How do you not take that opportunity? But, in the end, that's the mindset that makes
legends. Colston was injured the first 6 games of last year and Bush, who is a better
backfield receiving option than he is an RB, was out for 5 weeks. If these two stay
healthy and Pierre establishes himself as the go-to back then Brees will easily eclipse
Marino's yardage mark this year. (Last Year: 5069yds, 34 TDS, 17 INT, 96.5 QBR)

2. Tom Brady (NE) - Even though he's coming back from a major knee injury, this guy will be
fine. He's always been a QB known for his decision-making skills, not his athleticism. He
has Wes Welker and Randy Moss on his side. Remember, this offense made Matt Cassel, who
hadn't started a game at QB since highschool, look like a seasoned veteran. I'm expecting
2007 type numberswhich makes him and Brees a toss-up at #1 and #2 in my list. Matt Cassel
put up 3600+ yds, 21 TDs, and 11 INTs. What do you think Brady will do? (Last year: 7
Completions. 11 Attempts, 63.6 COMP %, 83.9 QBR)

3. Matt Ryan (ATL) - Ryan lacked a go-to TE last year. This year he has Gonzalez who will,
despite his age, command some attention from the defense. Gonzo gives him a reliable red-
zone receiving threat. Roddy White is looking to prove he deserves T.O. money, Turner and
Norwood are a tandem compareable to Jones and Barber, and Jenkins is a great short yardage
receiver. Their defense is young and inexperienced. They have the 4th toughest schedule in
the NFL and will be playing from behind A LOT. (Last year: 3440 yds, 16 TDs, 11 INTs, 87.7
QBR)

4. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) - Easy schedule, returning WR group. Their stregth of schedule
is ranked 29th this upcoming year. Big Ben has been a beast since his first season as a
starter. Barring a motorcycle crash with no helmet, epindicitis, and a concussion suffered
in a midseason game, he'll continue to be a beast. (Last year: 3301 yds, 17TDs, 15 INTs,
80.1 QBR)

Who to choose at #5? You have P. Manning (IND), A Rodgers(GB), T Romo (DAL)....
I choose....

5. Philip Rivers (SD) - Since playing the AFC title game in '07 with a screwed up knee he's
been on fire. He rebounded from that late season knee injury and finished last year with a
105.5 QBR. Sproles and Tomlinson create an explosive Fred Taylor/Jones-Drew type tandem.
Chambers' production will increase as a #2 and Jackson will emerge as a dominant #1
receiver. (Last year: 4009 YDS, 34 TDs, 11 INTS, 105.5 QBR)

I told you so....

Matthew Stafford (DET) - This an easy cop-out. Stafford will connect with Pettigrew for
some short yardage passes that may result in TDs. However, while Stafford packs a big arm,
it'll be inaccurate. Calvin Johnson is a downfield threat, but, Matthew Stafford was VERY
innacurate downfield when he played with UGA. Stafford never showed up in the big games
during his college career despite being surrounded by talent like 1st round RB Knowshon
Moreno, a matured receiver like Massaquoi, and a future first round WR like AJ Greene. He
wasn't capable of getting the job done at the college level. In fact, Tim Tebow, who most
experts consider a potential NFL fullback, has accomplished more than Stafford could've
EVER wished for as a QB. Don;t be brave and reach for this guys in the first 5 rounds.

Jake Delhomme - This guys is geting old and so is the Moose. Steve Smith will be a factor,
but CAR's offense will revolve around Stewart and WIlliams. I will be VERY surprised if
Jake puts up numbers equal to those of last years. CAR strength of schedule is #2 this
year. Don't expect the season they had last year. (Last year: 3288 YDS, 15 TDS, 12 INTs,
84.7 QBR)
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Re: Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags.

Postby mattb47 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 10:34 am

Well...where to begin...oh well, I'll just start and we'll see where my post leads me.

Brees at #1 is one you'll find very few complaints with as that's pretty common...but no Peyton Manning in the top 5 is rather ridiculous in my opinion. Exactly how poor do you expect his stats to be for him not to be in the top 5 this season?

2. Tom Brady (NE) - Even though he's coming back from a major knee injury, this guy will be
fine. He's always been a QB known for his decision-making skills, not his athleticism. He
has Wes Welker and Randy Moss on his side. Remember, this offense made Matt Cassel, who
hadn't started a game at QB since highschool, look like a seasoned veteran. I'm expecting
2007 type numberswhich makes him and Brees a toss-up at #1 and #2 in my list. Matt Cassel
put up 3600+ yds, 21 TDs, and 11 INTs. What do you think Brady will do? (Last year: 7
Completions. 11 Attempts, 63.6 COMP %, 83.9 QBR)


Not an insane prediction as a lot of people seem to agree with the idea that Brady will just pick up where he left off but I've just seen it way too many times that guys just don't come back the same, especially when they're getting older (he's 31, will be 32 this year) and it each year you age it makes it that much harder to really effectively come back from a major injury like that. I have never bought the argument that just because a guy is not known for his athleticism that it won't effect him much, but was Carson Palmer known for his athleticism? He's never been anywhere near the same since his injury...you can blame other stuff there if you want to make excuses, but the bottom line is that he's never been as good since he got hurt as he was before. It's been a significant drop actually. I don't expect a big drop for him outside the top 5 or anything...but I don't think I would take him as the #2 overall QB.

3. Matt Ryan (ATL) - Ryan lacked a go-to TE last year. This year he has Gonzalez who will,
despite his age, command some attention from the defense. Gonzo gives him a reliable red-
zone receiving threat. Roddy White is looking to prove he deserves T.O. money, Turner and
Norwood are a tandem compareable to Jones and Barber, and Jenkins is a great short yardage
receiver. Their defense is young and inexperienced. They have the 4th toughest schedule in
the NFL and will be playing from behind A LOT. (Last year: 3440 yds, 16 TDs, 11 INTs, 87.7
QBR)


I'm with you on the Matt Ryan bandwagon but not to this extent...you seem to have fallen in love far too much in your list with guys that just don't get enough attempts to land where you are projecting them to land. Ryan only attempted 434 passes all season and while I fully expect that to go up a good deal, #3 overall QB is a really big jump for him...do you realize that for him to do that we're going to need him to be in the 4000 yard and 30 TD range? So we're talking 600 more passing yards and double his last year's TD total? I don't think so...I have him top 10 but top 3 is a huge stretch. He just won't attempt enough passes to land there.

4. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) - Easy schedule, returning WR group. Their stregth of schedule
is ranked 29th this upcoming year. Big Ben has been a beast since his first season as a
starter. Barring a motorcycle crash with no helmet, epindicitis, and a concussion suffered
in a midseason game, he'll continue to be a beast. (Last year: 3301 yds, 17TDs, 15 INTs,
80.1 QBR)


You won't find many that agree heartily with this one...even as a Steelers fan I wouldn't come close to being in agreement that Big Ben will finish as a top 5 QB. You really can't depend on a QB like this that you know will only get limited attempts each season to finish so high...guys like that are very hit or miss and while I think he'll be better than he was last year because of an easier schedule this season, he's a better actual QB than he is fantasy QB. The most attempts he's ever had was 469, that would be good for only 14th best in the NFL last season...not exactly encouraging on the possibilities he'll have with limited attempts. Only once in his career has he even had more than 18 TDs and that was a couple seasons ago...as much as I'd love to see that happen again, I think the chances of a 30+ TD season are against him...and if he's going to finish that high he'll need a very high TD total. He's not going to throw for 4000 yards so to be top 4 he needs in the range of 35+ TDs to even come close.

5. Philip Rivers (SD) - Since playing the AFC title game in '07 with a screwed up knee he's
been on fire. He rebounded from that late season knee injury and finished last year with a
105.5 QBR. Sproles and Tomlinson create an explosive Fred Taylor/Jones-Drew type tandem.
Chambers' production will increase as a #2 and Jackson will emerge as a dominant #1
receiver. (Last year: 4009 YDS, 34 TDs, 11 INTS, 105.5 QBR)


Same old story here as with your last 2. He had the most attempts we can really even possibly expect from him last season when he passed it 478 times (only 12th most in the NFL). The Charger defense was uncharacteristically weak and meant that they had to pass a lot more than normal, that coupled with LT suffering from injuries all season and Rivers was forced to air it out more than normal. This is the same guy that in the 2 years prior to last, only attempted a COMBINED 561 times (average of 280.5 times per season) and with a healthy LT and the defense likely to play better this season, I think we'll see him back closer to 400 than 500 in attempts which doesn't bode well for high production. Do you really think he'll throw for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs again with 425-440 attempts? I sure don't think so.


Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are glaringly missing from your top 5...those are guys who have far more opportunity for higher numbers I think are much better bets for finishing with the top 5 caliber numbers because of that. I think it's a little hard to not have Kurt Warner top 5 too even if he's near the bottom of that list just because of the opportunity he'll have if they keep him upright again this season.

You're entirely entitled to your opinion but I think that you are putting too much stock in guys that just don't attempt enough passes to get themselves into the top 5 and I think all 3 of the guys you have up there are guys who are unlikely to see absolutely huge increases in passing attempts which they would need to really end up where you have them.
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Re: Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags. "I TOLD YOU SO!"

Postby iamgregg » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:20 am

Same old story here as with your last 2. He had the most attempts we can really even possibly expect from him last season when he passed it 478 times (only 12th most in the NFL). The Charger defense was uncharacteristically weak and meant that they had to pass a lot more than normal, that coupled with LT suffering from injuries all season and Rivers was forced to air it out more than normal. This is the same guy that in the 2 years prior to last, only attempted a COMBINED 561 times (average of 280.5 times per season) and with a healthy LT and the defense likely to play better this season, I think we'll see him back closer to 400 than 500 in attempts which doesn't bode well for high production. Do you really think he'll throw for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs again with 425-440 attempts? I sure don't think so.


Think you've gotten attempts mixed up with completions, dude. The two seasons before last, Rivers attempted 460 in each, which is only 18 less than the season he aired it out "a lot more than normal". Though, without looking at the stats, I'd be willing to concede run/pass ratio as ball control was terrible. But also, for that reason, I'd expect run attempts to go up, but pass attempts to hover around the same. If the run game improves, that will improve the ball control issues and more snaps means the extra run attempts don't have to be subtracted from the passing attempts. You could even argue that they would go up as there should be plenty mroe snaps to go around.

Something that I haven't ever seen mentioned, and is probably a big reason for Rivers' very high efficiency last season, is Norv Turners play calling philosphy. Deep routes, long developing plays, running a system that could be called a descendent of Air Coryell. Maybe Rivers has such high TDs and yards per attempt because of his ability, coupled with the style of play calling. Add in the ball control problems and you've got a team who's trying to get down the field quickly by passing it. If the ball control problems go away (or at least subside) as I, and most, expect them to, there's still the play calling and the QB can make the throws that are asked of him. On the flip side of the run game improving, it could make it easier for Rivers to make them.
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Re: Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags. "I TOLD YOU SO!"

Postby bmor8811 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:36 am

Man, can I be in a league with you? No disrespect meant here, but outside of Brees and Brady I find it hard to agree with these. Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, even McNabb all surpassed by Roethlisberger? I may be able to find some backing for Rivers in top 5 (even though I dont think so)... and I'm high on Ryna (but still thinks hes at least one more season away from top tier talent) but to have both over Rodgers, Peyton, Romo, McNabb. Just shouldnt even be dignified by a response.
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Re: Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags. "I TOLD YOU SO!"

Postby Kensat30 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 12:59 pm

It takes a lot of balls to stick an unproven player so high up in your rankings (Ryan) and another veteran player so low on them (Manning) and I like that. I agree on both of those players, but not to the extent you are willing to. I also think Matt Ryan is one of the QBs poised to explode this year, but I woudln't draft him in the top5. I also think Peyton Manning showed some major weaknesses last year and without Marvin Harrison, those weaknesses will become more apparent going forward. I have Manning right on the bubble of my top5 QBs.

The Big Ben ranking surprises me and will cause me to look into him a little more before my August drafts roll around. I have noticed in my early drafts that Big Ben has fallen to me several times to the point where I had to take him, but I haven't necessarily sought out the guy and targeted him for my team. I do think Big Ben is one of the better QBs in the league, but on the surface it seems like the guy is in a below average situation for fantasy purposes. He seemed to have a breakout year when the new OC came in a couple years ago, but 2008 was full of setbacks for the guy. Injuries, inconsistencies, Santanio Holmes underperforming, Mewelde Moore leading the team in fantasy scoring for several weeks... A lot can change in one year, Big Ben couldeasily see a rebound. I think he's a very similar QB to Phillip Rivers, but one player is coming off a career high and another player is coming off what could be a career low.
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Re: Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags. "I TOLD YOU SO!"

Postby steelerfan513 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 1:13 pm

Roethlisberger is never going to be an elite fantasy quarterback unless the Steelers go through a major shift in offensive philosophy. The only year he possessed value as a starting fantasy QB was 2007, and that was only because he threw 32 TD passes, which can be attributed to the Steelers' lack of a goal line running game and the options Roethlisberger had to throw to around the goal line, especially at tight end.

But mattb nailed it: he'll never get enough attempts to be anything more than a quality backup fantasy QB. As long as he's not trying too hard to win games on his own (which he did very frequently last year), he won't hurt your numbers, but rare is the day that he'll put up more than 15 fantasy points. Even in the year that he threw for 32 TDs, Roethlisberger had a grand total of zero games with 300 or more passing yards. He only has 7 in his entire career, and most of them are losses because Roethlisberger putting up big stats means the Steelers aren't sticking to their philosophy of a run-heavy offense. Maybe if the perfect storm of conditions, like in 2007, comes together, he can put together another year of great stats. But the odds of that happening are very low.

Draft Roethlisberger as a backup and feel comfortable that you'll have a guy who likely won't hurt you if you need to start him. But don't count on him to put up any dazzling numbers.
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Re: Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags. "I TOLD YOU SO!"

Postby bungle613 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 3:09 pm

I will agree with the previous posters... gutsy picks. BUT, I would put large sums of money that Ben and Ryan are not in the top 5. Ryan is intriguing but I will let you be the guy to take him in the 5th or 6th.
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Re: Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags. "I TOLD YOU SO!"

Postby mattb47 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 3:25 pm

iamgregg wrote:
Same old story here as with your last 2. He had the most attempts we can really even possibly expect from him last season when he passed it 478 times (only 12th most in the NFL). The Charger defense was uncharacteristically weak and meant that they had to pass a lot more than normal, that coupled with LT suffering from injuries all season and Rivers was forced to air it out more than normal. This is the same guy that in the 2 years prior to last, only attempted a COMBINED 561 times (average of 280.5 times per season) and with a healthy LT and the defense likely to play better this season, I think we'll see him back closer to 400 than 500 in attempts which doesn't bode well for high production. Do you really think he'll throw for 4000 yards and 30+ TDs again with 425-440 attempts? I sure don't think so.


Think you've gotten attempts mixed up with completions, dude. The two seasons before last, Rivers attempted 460 in each, which is only 18 less than the season he aired it out "a lot more than normal". Though, without looking at the stats, I'd be willing to concede run/pass ratio as ball control was terrible. But also, for that reason, I'd expect run attempts to go up, but pass attempts to hover around the same. If the run game improves, that will improve the ball control issues and more snaps means the extra run attempts don't have to be subtracted from the passing attempts. You could even argue that they would go up as there should be plenty mroe snaps to go around.

Something that I haven't ever seen mentioned, and is probably a big reason for Rivers' very high efficiency last season, is Norv Turners play calling philosphy. Deep routes, long developing plays, running a system that could be called a descendent of Air Coryell. Maybe Rivers has such high TDs and yards per attempt because of his ability, coupled with the style of play calling. Add in the ball control problems and you've got a team who's trying to get down the field quickly by passing it. If the ball control problems go away (or at least subside) as I, and most, expect them to, there's still the play calling and the QB can make the throws that are asked of him. On the flip side of the run game improving, it could make it easier for Rivers to make them.


Yea, I mixed that up there with the years past but he's still been consistently around the same amount each year (460-480) and this past year he averaged 1 TD per 21 attempts compared to 1 TD per every 14 attempts his past 2 seasons before that. That's not a normal increase that will stay that high (none of the top QBs put up those kinds of TD numbers per attempt) and I think we could see him in the 22-25 range TD wise but I'd be very surprised to see 30+ again. I think we'll see his yards per attempt drop a bit again as well as he increased that by 1.5 yards last season which is a HUGE amount and it's unlikely to continue like that.

Guys who create a ton of production in limited attempts/touches in any position (mainly RB and QB) are unlikely to repeat those kinds of numbers. By putting him top 5, you are basically saying that he has to continue to be outstanding with each pass and throw for the 30+ TDs again and keep his very high yards per attempt to even sniff the top 5. I think it's much more likely to see him down closer to the 3300-3600 yd range with 25-27 TDs which gets him into the top 10, but not the top 5. I think the TD numbers are the most likely to drop next year as he had 7 games of 3 TDs or more last year which is unlikely to occur again. Compare that to Drew Brees who threw the same amount of TDs with many more attempts and only had 6 games of 3 TDs or more and Kurt Warner who had 30 TDs and ended up with just 4 games of 3 or more TDs.
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Re: Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags. "I TOLD YOU SO!"

Postby Azrael » Sun Jul 05, 2009 5:10 pm

I'm confused by the Stafford and Delhomme comments. You sound like you are assuming people are going to be drafting these guys to be starters when that's likely not the reality. Stafford would probably be one of the last QBs taken in a 16 team league. He might not even start the year.
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Re: Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags.

Postby mattb47 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 5:21 pm

Yea...those guys aren't going to be drafted as starters in any legitimate leagues...not hard to say that you shouldn't choose them as a starter or anything. I can't imagine anyone in a reasonable league taking Stafford within the first 10 rounds much less the first 5...or even in some cases being drafted at all.
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