Top 5 2009 QBs, plus two finger wags. "I TOLD YOU SO!"

[Free Bagel]

Draft Roethlisberger as a backup and feel comfortable that you'll have a guy who likely won't hurt you if you need to start him. But don't count on him to put up any dazzling numbers.

I disagree on this one. Roethlisberger is most certainly a QB that can big time hurt you when you stick him into the lineup. With his limited attempts and low TD ceiling even a slightly "down" game for him brings out a dismal fantasy output. The Steelers could control a game and win convincingly by 17 points and you still end up with a statline that looks something like 175 yards, 0 TDs, and an interception, and it often gets much worse.

The guy has a startling number of games of abysmal fantasy outputs over the years. He has scored 5 fantasy points or less in 9 games the last three years. That's 20% of the games he played.

[mattb47]

Draft Roethlisberger as a backup and feel comfortable that you'll have a guy who likely won't hurt you if you need to start him. But don't count on him to put up any dazzling numbers.

I disagree on this one. Roethlisberger is most certainly a QB that can big time hurt you when you stick him into the lineup. With his limited attempts and low TD ceiling even a slightly "down" game for him brings out a dismal fantasy output. The Steelers could control a game and win convincingly by 17 points and you still end up with a statline that looks something like 175 yards, 0 TDs, and an interception, and it often gets much worse.

The guy has a startling number of games of abysmal fantasy outputs over the years. He has scored 5 fantasy points or less in 9 games the last three years. That's 20% of the games he played.

To summarize...not a top 5 QB.

[bungle613]

Draft Roethlisberger as a backup and feel comfortable that you'll have a guy who likely won't hurt you if you need to start him. But don't count on him to put up any dazzling numbers.

I disagree on this one. Roethlisberger is most certainly a QB that can big time hurt you when you stick him into the lineup. With his limited attempts and low TD ceiling even a slightly "down" game for him brings out a dismal fantasy output. The Steelers could control a game and win convincingly by 17 points and you still end up with a statline that looks something like 175 yards, 0 TDs, and an interception, and it often gets much worse.

The guy has a startling number of games of abysmal fantasy outputs over the years. He has scored 5 fantasy points or less in 9 games the last three years. That's 20% of the games he played.

Not sure what scorign you are using but I can't figure out how you came to 9 games of less than 5 points. Maybe 10 points but he doesn't have a single game under 5. I agree with the end argument that Ben is not a top 5 QB but he is no worse then anyone outside of the top 5-6 in any given year.

My favourite QB screw over was Warner in week 16 last year. Cost me two championships. I think I lost both to Tyler Thigpen of all guys. Anyways, unles you are Brady, Brees or Peyton, chances are you are going to throw 1-3 lousy games in a year.

[Cowboys 4 life]

At the end of the limb sometimes there is a littly small itty bitty baby limb that is growing. You are on that one.

Top 2 are good but after that you crapped the bed. What you do have going is that Fantasy Football is unpredictable and anything could happen. But the risk of betting on such an increase over last year is very high.

[Free Bagel]

Not sure what scorign you are using but I can't figure out how you came to 9 games of less than 5 points. Maybe 10 points but he doesn't have a single game under 5.

25 yards per point passing, 4 point TDs, -2 for INTs/fumbles, 10pts/yd rushing, 6pt rush TDs

I'll just focus on this year, since it's early and I don't feel like going through all three years right now. He had the following games this year:

131 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 int, 6 rush yards, 2 fumbles lost = -1 points
189 pass yards, 1 TD, 4 int, 3 rush yards = 3 points
280 pass yards, 0 TD, 3 int, -1 rush yards = 5 points
110 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 int, 0 rush yards = 2 points

Four games, 25% of the games he played.

I agree with the end argument that Ben is not a top 5 QB but he is no worse then anyone outside of the top 5-6 in any given year.

Here are the list of the QBs #6-15, and how many games they had 5 or fewer points.

#6 Peyton Manning, 1 game
#7 Matt Cassell, 1 game
#8 Donovan Mcnabb, 1 game
#9 Chad Pennington, 1 game
#10 Tyler Thigpen, 2 games
#11 David Garrard, 0 games
#12 Tony Romo, 1 game
#13 Jason Campbell, 1 game
#14 Eli Manning, 2 games
#15 Matt Ryan, 1 game

[bungle613]

Not sure what scorign you are using but I can't figure out how you came to 9 games of less than 5 points. Maybe 10 points but he doesn't have a single game under 5.

25 yards per point passing, 4 point TDs, -2 for INTs/fumbles, 10pts/yd rushing, 6pt rush TDs

I'll just focus on this year, since it's early and I don't feel like going through all three years right now. He had the following games this year:

131 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 int, 6 rush yards, 2 fumbles lost = -1 points
189 pass yards, 1 TD, 4 int, 3 rush yards = 3 points
280 pass yards, 0 TD, 3 int, -1 rush yards = 5 points
110 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 int, 0 rush yards = 2 points

Four games, 25% of the games he played.

I agree with the end argument that Ben is not a top 5 QB but he is no worse then anyone outside of the top 5-6 in any given year.

Here are the list of the QBs #6-15, and how many games they had 5 or fewer points.

#6 Peyton Manning, 1 game
#7 Matt Cassell, 1 game
#8 Donovan Mcnabb, 1 game
#9 Chad Pennington, 1 game
#10 Tyler Thigpen, 2 games
#11 David Garrard, 0 games
#12 Tony Romo, 1 game
#13 Jason Campbell, 1 game
#14 Eli Manning, 2 games
#15 Matt Ryan, 1 game

Wow, rough QB scoring system. Surprised me with the other players.... fairly narrrow comparisons but I get your point. Massively overpaid for Rivers in a dynasty this year to avoid starting Ben again.

[Kensat30]

Big Ben was banged up for pretty much all of 2006. When healthy in 2007 he was a beast, especially around the goalline in the new offense. Last year he was banged up again. I think the potential is there for above average TD totals if Santonio Holmes is on his game and starts producing TDs are his higher 2007 rate. In 2007 Holmes had 8 TDs in 12 games versus 5 TDs in 16 games in 2008. And additionally, Big Ben had some injuries in 2008 that took him out mid game a couple of times if I recall correctly (Leftwich played well enough to earn a chance at a starting job elsewhere) and he was playing injured in a string of other games.

I think the biggest risk with Ben is the mid-game or lingering injuries because he takes so many sacks. The guy does take below average attempts, but he has been pretty productive on big plays and even TD ratios when on his game. I would not hesitate to take this guy as one of the top backup QBs off the board as I think you can plug him in and expect good performance in the majority of weeks and when he is on his game he can be a top-end option. Just don't play this guy injured.

[steelerfan513]

Draft Roethlisberger as a backup and feel comfortable that you'll have a guy who likely won't hurt you if you need to start him. But don't count on him to put up any dazzling numbers.

I disagree on this one. Roethlisberger is most certainly a QB that can big time hurt you when you stick him into the lineup. With his limited attempts and low TD ceiling even a slightly "down" game for him brings out a dismal fantasy output. The Steelers could control a game and win convincingly by 17 points and you still end up with a statline that looks something like 175 yards, 0 TDs, and an interception, and it often gets much worse.

The guy has a startling number of games of abysmal fantasy outputs over the years. He has scored 5 fantasy points or less in 9 games the last three years. That's 20% of the games he played.

True true, I didn't consider that; those 175 yard, 1 INT lines are very possible for him. I wouldn't expect them to get worse very often like they did last year, but you're right.

[moochman]

I dislike the projections of Ryan and Rothlisberger being counted on for top five performances this season. Ryan is a good bet to disappoint this season for two merely speculatative reasons:
1) The Falcon run game succeeds even more with the addition of Gonzo. Less opportunity for Ryan to get bloated stats.
2) Gonzo means a shift in philosophy and/or places more pressure on Ryan to throw more. Hey, the dude is a second year QB and he is due some pretty severe bumps in the road. Should he feel pressure to incorperate Gonzo into the offence he could start pressing and, well we know what can happen even to a season veteran.

Big Ben won't be a top five becuase he won't have to. His only hope is to throw a lot of TDs, and with the lack of a goal-line bruiser that is a possibility. But more likely is that they take advantage of a weak schedule and there is little reason for him to sling the ball around enough to merit a top five consideration. Sadly, too, as Kenstat mentioned, Big Ben is a Big Target. So if were are to assume that he must be healthy to have enough success, shouldn't we also assume the only way he stays healthy is by not having to throw as much? Great back-up potential.

While I don't expect Matt Stafford to be a fantasy factor this season, he will have the benefit of having to throw a lot if he should be called upon to play. The Lions have the three things you want for your FFB QB: A crappy D and an elite WR. Oh, the third. By league rule they have to play all of their games.

Delhomme is a great sleeper. If his shoulder injury responds like the baseball variety he should have a stronger arm than prior to his injury. He could be a very credible option this season. Or not. Joss.

[smfowler]

Yea...those guys aren't going to be drafted as starters in any legitimate leagues...not hard to say that you shouldn't choose them as a starter or anything. I can't imagine anyone in a reasonable league taking Stafford within the first 10 rounds much less the first 5...or even in some cases being drafted at all.

First off I condemned Stafford. Second, you're saying Brees, Brady, Rivers or Ryan won't be starters in your league? Please, send me an invite. You're wrong because Brady will be a starter in EVERY league, legitimate or not. I'm saying these will be the top 5 QBs, not top 5 fantasy players. You're entitled t your opinion, but Brees, Brady, Rivers, and maybe Ryan will be starters. If not, they should be.

In my opinion, in 12 team leagues the starters should be (in no particular order) Brees, Ryan, Brady, Big Ben, Peyton, Warner, Rodgers, Rivers, Romo, and McNabb. Eli and Cutler can be argued. You and your friends can reach for JaMarcus Russell and Tyler Thigpen all you want.