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My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

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My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby My team is injured » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:38 am

All of my projected numbers are done assuming a full 16 game schedule played. I then factor in injury risks/reliability/upside, etc. along with the projected numbers in creating my rankings.

All rankings are also done in tiers. Within a given tier, there is some fluctuation still as to where I have the receivers ranked and I may end up drafting a WR ranked lower than another WR in the same tier.

Tier 1 (1-4)

Randy Moss 88 1337.6 16 = 317.76
Andre Johnson 107 1444.5 8 = 299.45
Larry Fitzgerald 96 1372.8 11 = 299.28
Steve Smith 96 1411.2 9 = 291.12

Comments: I still have Randy Moss as the top WR on the board though I could see making a case for Andre or Fitz.

Tier 2 (5-11)

Marques Colston 92 1288 11 = 286.8
Anquan Boldin 100 1220 11 = 288
Roddy White 90 1368 8 = 274.8
Reggie Wayne 88 1240.8 9 = 266.08
Calvin Johnson 84 1344 10 = 278.4
Greg Jennings 84 1302 10 = 274.2
Brandon Marshall 96 1228.8 7 = 260.88

Comments: I'd put Calvin Johnson a few spots higher if it wasn't for his QB situation in Detroit though it didn't seem to matter much for him last year. I like Marques Colston as a great value this year as he's still the number one target in New Orleans's high octane offense.

Tier 3 (12-16)

Dwayne Bowe 92 1196 8 = 259.6
Terrell Owens 76 1124.8 11 = 254.48
Roy Williams 80 1168 9 = 250.8
TJ Houshmandzadeh 104 1227.2 7 = 268.72
Wes Welker 102 1071 6 = 245.1

Comments: Roy Williams seems to be a decent value pick this year as he's likely going to see plenty of targets this year with TO gone and while he's probably never going to reach the potential he flashed earlier in his career, he should put up fairly good numbers as the main WR in Dallas's offense.

Tier 4 (17-22)

Chad Johnson 84 1226.4 7 = 248.64
Braylon Edwards 74 1124.8 6 = 222.48
Santonio Holmes 74 1147 8 = 236.7
Antonio Bryant 74 1110 5 = 215
Hines Ward 74 925 7 = 208.5
Derrick Mason 86 1092.2 5 = 225.22

Comments: I like Chad Johnson as a bounce back candidate moreso than Braylon Edwards. Chad had an injury he was dealing with last season along with other offseason distractions and Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for most of the year. With Carson back and Chad healthy, I expect him to put up a solid statline and be a good value in drafts this year. Mason's also always a solid if unspectactular player though his upside is limited compared to a guy like Bryant.

Tier 5 (23-33)

Anthony Gonzalez 82 1025 6 = 220.5
Eddie Royal 88 1012 5 = 219.2
Jerricho Cotchery 80 1000 5 = 210
Santana Moss 72 1008 6 = 208.8
Torry Holt 76 972.8 5 = 203.28
Lance Moore 72 828 6 = 190.8
Donald Driver 72 993.6 5 = 201.36
Michael Crabtree 70 980 7 = 210
Laveranues Coles 78 897 6 = 203.7
Lee Evans 60 1020 6 = 198
Vincent Jackson 60 972 7 = 199.2

Comments: A number of these guys like Vincent Jackson and A. Gonz seem to be going earlier than I would pick them as I don't see them being very likely to reach the ceilings of their potential. In this tier, I think it's mostly preference as to where the receivers are ranked and I could see myself scooping up a bottom wideout in this tier before others ranked higher.
All of my analysis is based on PPR
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Re: My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby My team is injured » Tue Jul 07, 2009 3:05 pm

No replies, huh? Not enough commentary included in my post? A boring list without many surprise rankings?

I know there are a fair share of posters who play in PPR leagues so I figured this post would generate some discussion. From glancing at the cafe's PPR rankings and other ADP projections, I think I have guys like Colston, Ocho Cinco, and even Randy Moss rated higher than many with others like Vincent Jackson and Lee Evans lower.
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Re: My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby Azrael » Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:11 pm

Haven't you heard, the cafe is withering :)

I don't do ppr but ppr or not I agree with you on Chad Johnson. He's not done. He just melted down last year. Carson's back. He's healthy. TJ is gone. I tink he gets back to 90 catches, 1,300 yards, and 8 or 9 TDs. Borderline WR1, which is great value where he is going. I think Edwards has to bounce back too. Simply can't be worse than last year. Winslow is gone and their No. 2 is likely Steptoe or Robiskie. He dropped something like 15 passes last year and 20 the year before. I have to think he's really working on that now. They only completed 238 passes as a team and a league low BY FAR 48.8 completion %. It just has to get better than that.
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Re: My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby Dawinner127 » Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:06 pm

I've always been a big fan of Vincent Jackson and this year I think is going to be his breakout year. His numbers keep on getting better each year that he has played in the NFL, even with all of the offensive weapons that San Diego has. I can definitely see him with 65+ receptions, 1000+ yards and 7+ touchdowns this year.

Also, I agree with you and Azrael on Chad Johnson. Definitely going to be a bounce back season.
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Re: My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby mrblitz » Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:18 pm

Thanks for the list. I actually don't like Vincent Jackson as much as most. With LT coming in healthy, I look for VJ's numbers to drop. And there is also a pass snatcher in Gates. I personally love Ward this year. He is being undervalued in most mocks.
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Re: My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:05 pm

I think the biggest bust candidate at WR right now has to be Dwayne Bowe. Guy has all the talent in the world, but he just lost the only other legit receiving threat on that offense in Tony G. Cassel couldn't utilize the supremely talented Randy Moss, what makes anyone think that he can get Bowe involved the way he should? Bowe is much more similar to Moss than Welker.

I don't see how anyone in their right mind would take Bowe in the 3rd round of redrafts this year considering the turnover there and the new scheme and management (which do not play to his strengths). Borderline WR1 value placed on a potential bench caliber WR (WR3 or WR4), no thanks.
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Re: My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby My team is injured » Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:40 pm

Azrael wrote:Haven't you heard, the cafe is withering :)

I don't do ppr but ppr or not I agree with you on Chad Johnson. He's not done. He just melted down last year. Carson's back. He's healthy. TJ is gone. I tink he gets back to 90 catches, 1,300 yards, and 8 or 9 TDs. Borderline WR1, which is great value where he is going. I think Edwards has to bounce back too. Simply can't be worse than last year. Winslow is gone and their No. 2 is likely Steptoe or Robiskie. He dropped something like 15 passes last year and 20 the year before. I have to think he's really working on that now. They only completed 238 passes as a team and a league low BY FAR 48.8 completion %. It just has to get better than that.


Cafe withering? I don't see how that's even possible with me contributing double my usual load of 10 posts per year.

While we agree on Chad (though I'm not quite as optimistic as you), I disagree on Braylon. Well, he'll be better than last year as it would be hard not for him to be as you noted, but I think we'll see closer to last year's Braylon than the one from 2007. He's never been a big reception guy and while they'll probably force a fair share of throws to him, he's unlikely IMO to pull in more than 5 catches per game. The only way he's going to hold much value is if he hauls in a lot of TDs but I don't see that happening on an offense that is likely going to struggle and has to play Pitt and Baltimore twice to top things off. I think his end numbers will be decent as I projected above but nothing special and barely top 20 WR worthy.
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Re: My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby My team is injured » Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:50 pm

Dawinner127 wrote:I've always been a big fan of Vincent Jackson and this year I think is going to be his breakout year. His numbers keep on getting better each year that he has played in the NFL, even with all of the offensive weapons that San Diego has. I can definitely see him with 65+ receptions, 1000+ yards and 7+ touchdowns this year.


While I could see Jackson putting up that stat-line, that wouldn't be much different than his totals from last year and wouldn't make him worth a pick as early as I've seen (16th WR on the cafe's PPR rankings). I actually project him for similar numbers (about 60 catches, 1000 yards, and 7 TDs) and think that doesn't even warrant him being top 30 at the wideout position.

And as far as his upside goes, I don't think it's much higher than those numbers as there are only so many passes to be caught with Gates, LT, Sproles, Chambers, and even Malcom Floyd in the mix. In fact, Vincent Jackson is probably hurt by playing on the Chargers as him, Gates, and Floyd are all similar big targets and difficult covers, making it likely each of them sees their share of passes without any of them putting up monster numbers over the course of a season.
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Re: My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby Portlis X » Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:49 pm

In my opinion, I'm just shocked at how high some of these receivers are being taken this year compared to what I feel is TREMENDOUS mid-late round receiver value out there this year in PPR leagues.

I just can't understand why guys like Bowe, VJacks, Roy Williams, Antonio Bryant (who is his QB??), Santonio Holmes and Lee Evans are going as high as the 10th-15th WR's off the board.

You've got guys like Lance Moore, Cotchery, Driver, Mason, Kevin Walter, Donnie Avery, Holt, Hines Ward, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal and to a lesser extent guys like Hixon and Ginn who could ALL potentially outperform those guys getting taken above them.

I'm doing a draft right now where every one of those receivers in my top section are taken, and only DeSean Jackson from the second section is gone and we're in the 7th round.

Again, we're talking PPR, but I can't understand why someone would rather have Holmes or Lee Evans in the 5th/6th round compared to Mason in the 8th/9th. Heck, I'd probably rather have Mason straight up!

I'm snatching up all the early-mid round RB's like Lynch, Moreno, Larry Johnson, Pierre Thomas and taking a gamble on the cheap WR's in later rounds....
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Re: My top 30 PPR Wide Receivers

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:12 pm

OK, I won't address the projections, cause that would open up arguing over insignificant changes. I will comment about some the more interesting rankings-

I agree with Moss. I look forward to getting him in the 2nd. I'm not interested in Smith, because of his Delhomme-inspired inconsistency.

I agree almost exactly with your tier 2, both in who's there and how they're ranked.

I say it again- Roy Williams is worth nothing. He has bad hands, no good work habits and as the top WR, he'll attract the best DBs.

In some mocks, I've been fairly happy with getting 2 WRs from your 1st 3 tiers- then completely ignoring your Tier 4 and 5 while I grab RBs. Only Ochocinco and Edwards make me think about the strategy.
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