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Ronnie Brown

Postby Doc19 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 10:37 pm

In doing some preliminary research for the upcoming season, I am finding that I am higher than most on Ronnie Brown this season; I think that since now has a full season under his belt since the knee injury that the Dolphins will feature him even more this year, and he certainly did not appear to lose a step last year.

Most of the sources I have read have him continuing a similar split with Ricky.

Anyone else feel that he takes another step forward this year, possibly warranting a second round pick in a re-draft non-PPR?

1200 rushYDS, 12 rush TD, 250 yrds rec, 1 rec TD unreasonable?
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby mattb47 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:08 pm

Those numbers are definitely reasonable...after going through and doing my projections I actually ended up rather close to that just a little bit lower at 1154 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 35 rec for 280 receiving yards, 2 TDs. So I have him for about the same in total yardage, just a bit less, and a couple fewer TDs but he could definitely outperform those numbers.

I'm not really huge on him though for this season. He's in the definition of a RBBC and in a gimmicky type of offense where he'll likely have big days and really bad days and so far with the current coaching staff he hasn't been used as much as he was when Cam Cameron was in town so you really have to temper your expectations for him. The numbers I have listed for him are solid, but I have him ended up being ranked in the 17-18 range depending on PPR or not so he's still not a top 15 RB.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby bungle613 » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:24 pm

I got knocked pretty good for taking Brown in a mock as my RB2 at I think 2.12 or 3.01. Personaly I am in agreement wiht the numbers you and Matt have and that is good enough for #11 last year in non PPR. He is currently the 15th RB being taken and if I was drafting AD or a LT early in the draft (picking 1.10 to 1.05) I would have no issues pairing them up with Brown as an RB2.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby biju » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:25 pm

Doc19 wrote:In doing some preliminary research for the upcoming season, I am finding that I am higher than most on Ronnie Brown this season; I think that since now has a full season under his belt since the knee injury that the Dolphins will feature him even more this year, and he certainly did not appear to lose a step last year.

Most of the sources I have read have him continuing a similar split with Ricky.

Anyone else feel that he takes another step forward this year, possibly warranting a second round pick in a re-draft non-PPR?

1200 rushYDS, 12 rush TD, 250 yrds rec, 1 rec TD unreasonable?


So here's the thing: I actually agree with the sentiment that Ronnie could produce 2nd round worthy stats. But unless you absolutely have to have him and know he's going to get taken earlier I'm not exactly sure *why* you would draft him with a second round pick.
An early 2nd round pick is too early no matter what. If you happen to have a late second round pick you should probably just wait until your early 3rd round pick.

Personally I have this idea in my head that he shouldn't go any earlier than 29th overall. That will probably change as we get closer to August.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Mon Jul 06, 2009 1:04 am

I can see him getting a few more carries but not 1200 yards. I still see Ricky in the mix and no matter how you look at it that is a RBBC. Ricky will get some carries but Brown will lead the team. I got him pinned for about 1100/10-11 and another couple hundred Receiving and a td or 2. I feel he is worth of a late 2nd rounder.

He just went early 2nd in one of my leagues but that is too early for me.

My biggest fear about him is who they just drafted at QB. That might take away from his production in the wildcat.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby biju » Mon Jul 06, 2009 2:07 am

Cowboys 4 life wrote:I can see him getting a few more carries but not 1200 yards. I still see Ricky in the mix and no matter how you look at it that is a RBBC. Ricky will get some carries but Brown will lead the team. I got him pinned for about 1100/10-11 and another couple hundred Receiving and a td or 2. I feel he is worth of a late 2nd rounder.

He just went early 2nd in one of my leagues but that is too early for me.

My biggest fear about him is who they just drafted at QB. That might take away from his production in the wildcat.


What I've been reading thus far is that Ricky Williams is really starting to look slow. If that's the case he's not going to eat into Brown's production at all. Furthermore I think everyone has seriously overestimated Pat White's readiness for the NFL--I think he's far too raw to see any real time this year and isn't a good enough passer to make defenses concerned and not a better runner than Brown.

But an early 2nd rounder is too early for my tastes. If that's what it is taking to get him I'll be out of the race in every league I play in this year.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby Free Bagel » Mon Jul 06, 2009 10:49 am

As a Dolphin fan who watched all their games last year, I can tell you that there is a big difference when Ronnie Brown is getting the ball vs when Ricky Williams is.

There was already a wide gap in talent last year, and Ricky is now 32 while Ronnie is a full year+ removed from the ACL tear. I expect Brown to outperform Williams enough per touch that the coaching staff has no choice but to use Brown much more than Ricky this year.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby Azrael » Mon Jul 06, 2009 11:01 am

Brown is a real gamble as a No. 2 back IMO. With the uncertainty of how Williams is going to play into it I don't feel comfortable taking him as a No. 2. I thought he was going to tear it up down the stretch against weak teams but he didn't score at all in December and his best effort was 10 fantasy points the last 6 weeks of the season, thanks to 1 TD against St. Louis. Why should I be confident he's going to be any better than a Thomas Jones, LJ, or even Knowshon Moreno if I'm really going to gamble with upside. And those guys are likely my 3rd back that I can get a round or 2 later at least.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby justinj312 » Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:58 am

I seem to be targeting different players in the area where he is taken, so it's not a real issue with a mediocre ronnie brown fan...
thx

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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Jul 07, 2009 9:34 am

Azrael wrote:Brown is a real gamble as a No. 2 back IMO. With the uncertainty of how Williams is going to play into it I don't feel comfortable taking him as a No. 2. I thought he was going to tear it up down the stretch against weak teams but he didn't score at all in December and his best effort was 10 fantasy points the last 6 weeks of the season, thanks to 1 TD against St. Louis. Why should I be confident he's going to be any better than a Thomas Jones, LJ, or even Knowshon Moreno if I'm really going to gamble with upside. And those guys are likely my 3rd back that I can get a round or 2 later at least.


This. Ronnie seems like one of those guys who has nice EOY stats, but when you look at his game by game stats the consistency just isnt there...and i prefer week to week consistency out of my RB's (well, pretty much my whole team, but i'm willing to go more with a Boom or Bust type player at WR or QB than i am at RB)
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