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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby LS2throwed » Tue Jul 07, 2009 9:38 am

First off, I'm not buying the "Ricky is still there" argument...Last year reports were he was looking like the Ricky of old and he was pretty much a non factor all last year, this year camp reports are of him being "invisible" and he's a year old and slower while Ronnie is more explosive and agile being a year removed from the injury. The gap between the two talent wise is going to be even greater this year and it was very noticeable last year.


My thing is, can Ronnie stay healthy? He's never really done it before, so I like to point that out to people who project him to explode this year...It's possible, but for a guy who has never stayed healthy I think it's a legit concern. Now when I brought up the argument between him and Steven Jackson and I was flamed for it, but both guys can't stay healthy and Ronnie has just as good of a chance of producing much like Jackson does.


I like Brown much better in the early 3rd then Jackson in the top half of the 1st round. Ronnie has just as much potential, and ability as anyone in the league. He was taken in the top 3 for a reason, he looked like he was ready to take the next jump to an elite back but injuries continue to set him back, he's a risk but I think you should expect 1500 total yards and 12 Total TD's if he can play 13-14 games...I'll take that every day for where he's going, but I'd be tempted to sell high at some point for a much safer option capable of the same because I'd be worried he'd still fall apart eventually.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby biju » Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:14 am

Dan Lambskin wrote:
Azrael wrote:Brown is a real gamble as a No. 2 back IMO. With the uncertainty of how Williams is going to play into it I don't feel comfortable taking him as a No. 2. I thought he was going to tear it up down the stretch against weak teams but he didn't score at all in December and his best effort was 10 fantasy points the last 6 weeks of the season, thanks to 1 TD against St. Louis. Why should I be confident he's going to be any better than a Thomas Jones, LJ, or even Knowshon Moreno if I'm really going to gamble with upside. And those guys are likely my 3rd back that I can get a round or 2 later at least.


This. Ronnie seems like one of those guys who has nice EOY stats, but when you look at his game by game stats the consistency just isnt there...and i prefer week to week consistency out of my RB's (well, pretty much my whole team, but i'm willing to go more with a Boom or Bust type player at WR or QB than i am at RB)


For me it's all about where anyone is taken. I don't necessarily have the problem you do in taking Ronnie as my RB2, but if it's the early 2nd round then I think it's a bad idea. The same goes for a lot of guys (Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton) that are going somewhere in the late 1st or early 2nd where they are going too early for my tastes. But both could be my RB1 if I got them in the mid-late 2nd or lower (although I suppose in a snake draft I would have already grabbed an RB in the early 1st so it's kind of a moot point) because I don't have that associated risk or having to have them produce otherwise my season is in jeopardy.

I guess what I'm saying is you *must* define *where* you're taking/not taking these guys instead of simply stating you wouldn't feel comfortable with him as a RB2. You could get your RB2 in the 5th round (I've certainly been forced into that before) at which Brown would be a bargain and not a cornerstone of your team.

For me, I'm grabbing Ronnie in the 3rd round of a 12 team league.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:32 am

For all the talk that Ricky was invisible last year, then why were they giving him the ball 10 times a game to Ronnie Brown's 14 or so. I too bought into the easy end of schedule hype only to watch Ronnie Brown wither down the stretch even while watching Ricky Williams on occasion putting up the better fantasy numbers (still not great by any means).

Every time Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown have stepped onto the field together, Ricky is stealing some of Ronnie's thunder. 3 years ago it was Ricky who looked better than Brown IMO. Last year outside of the NE wildcat game, I'd say the two were almost a wash. Ronnie has more physical talent, but the guy is just not as good of a runner as Ricky Williams. Similar to the Steven Jackson Marshall Faulk thing we saw between those two at the end.

If Ricky has anything at all left in the tank, he is going to hold Ronnie Brown back from stardom. A Carolina-esque fantasy explosion is possible there even with Ricky, but I think that possibility it minuscule. I rate Ronnie Brown similarly to Marshawn Lynch as talented, but bottom tier, RB2s due to lack of opportunity.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby aaawall91 » Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:58 am

LS2throwed wrote:

My thing is, can Ronnie stay healthy? He's never really done it before, so I like to point that out to people who project him to explode this year...It's possible, but for a guy who has never stayed healthy I think it's a legit concern. Now when I brought up the argument between him and Steven Jackson and I was flamed for it, but both guys can't stay healthy and Ronnie has just as good of a chance of producing much like Jackson does.



Ronnie played all 16 last year :-?
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby Azrael » Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:04 pm

biju wrote:
Dan Lambskin wrote:
Azrael wrote:Brown is a real gamble as a No. 2 back IMO. With the uncertainty of how Williams is going to play into it I don't feel comfortable taking him as a No. 2. I thought he was going to tear it up down the stretch against weak teams but he didn't score at all in December and his best effort was 10 fantasy points the last 6 weeks of the season, thanks to 1 TD against St. Louis. Why should I be confident he's going to be any better than a Thomas Jones, LJ, or even Knowshon Moreno if I'm really going to gamble with upside. And those guys are likely my 3rd back that I can get a round or 2 later at least.


This. Ronnie seems like one of those guys who has nice EOY stats, but when you look at his game by game stats the consistency just isnt there...and i prefer week to week consistency out of my RB's (well, pretty much my whole team, but i'm willing to go more with a Boom or Bust type player at WR or QB than i am at RB)


For me it's all about where anyone is taken. I don't necessarily have the problem you do in taking Ronnie as my RB2, but if it's the early 2nd round then I think it's a bad idea. The same goes for a lot of guys (Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton) that are going somewhere in the late 1st or early 2nd where they are going too early for my tastes. But both could be my RB1 if I got them in the mid-late 2nd or lower (although I suppose in a snake draft I would have already grabbed an RB in the early 1st so it's kind of a moot point) because I don't have that associated risk or having to have them produce otherwise my season is in jeopardy.

I guess what I'm saying is you *must* define *where* you're taking/not taking these guys instead of simply stating you wouldn't feel comfortable with him as a RB2. You could get your RB2 in the 5th round (I've certainly been forced into that before) at which Brown would be a bargain and not a cornerstone of your team.

For me, I'm grabbing Ronnie in the 3rd round of a 12 team league.


Of course. Part of the draft is about where opportunity meets draft position. I just assumed that was understood that at where he's going in mocks, I'm not keen on drafting him. His ADP outweighs his value right now in my opinion. Isn't he going around guys like Grant, P. Thomas, and K. Smith? Rather have anyone of those guys. I'm having a hard time with that part of the draft in general...right after RB14, WR10, QB3 I have a hard time deciding which way to go with my pick.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby Kensat30 » Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:58 pm

Azrael wrote:
biju wrote:
Dan Lambskin wrote:
This. Ronnie seems like one of those guys who has nice EOY stats, but when you look at his game by game stats the consistency just isnt there...and i prefer week to week consistency out of my RB's (well, pretty much my whole team, but i'm willing to go more with a Boom or Bust type player at WR or QB than i am at RB)


For me it's all about where anyone is taken. I don't necessarily have the problem you do in taking Ronnie as my RB2, but if it's the early 2nd round then I think it's a bad idea. The same goes for a lot of guys (Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton) that are going somewhere in the late 1st or early 2nd where they are going too early for my tastes. But both could be my RB1 if I got them in the mid-late 2nd or lower (although I suppose in a snake draft I would have already grabbed an RB in the early 1st so it's kind of a moot point) because I don't have that associated risk or having to have them produce otherwise my season is in jeopardy.

I guess what I'm saying is you *must* define *where* you're taking/not taking these guys instead of simply stating you wouldn't feel comfortable with him as a RB2. You could get your RB2 in the 5th round (I've certainly been forced into that before) at which Brown would be a bargain and not a cornerstone of your team.

For me, I'm grabbing Ronnie in the 3rd round of a 12 team league.


Of course. Part of the draft is about where opportunity meets draft position. I just assumed that was understood that at where he's going in mocks, I'm not keen on drafting him. His ADP outweighs his value right now in my opinion. Isn't he going around guys like Grant, P. Thomas, and K. Smith? Rather have anyone of those guys. I'm having a hard time with that part of the draft in general...right after RB14, WR10, QB3 I have a hard time deciding which way to go with my pick.


TJ Houshmanzadeh, Chad Johnson territory IMO.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby biju » Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:38 pm

Azrael wrote:
biju wrote:
Dan Lambskin wrote:
This. Ronnie seems like one of those guys who has nice EOY stats, but when you look at his game by game stats the consistency just isnt there...and i prefer week to week consistency out of my RB's (well, pretty much my whole team, but i'm willing to go more with a Boom or Bust type player at WR or QB than i am at RB)


For me it's all about where anyone is taken. I don't necessarily have the problem you do in taking Ronnie as my RB2, but if it's the early 2nd round then I think it's a bad idea. The same goes for a lot of guys (Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton) that are going somewhere in the late 1st or early 2nd where they are going too early for my tastes. But both could be my RB1 if I got them in the mid-late 2nd or lower (although I suppose in a snake draft I would have already grabbed an RB in the early 1st so it's kind of a moot point) because I don't have that associated risk or having to have them produce otherwise my season is in jeopardy.

I guess what I'm saying is you *must* define *where* you're taking/not taking these guys instead of simply stating you wouldn't feel comfortable with him as a RB2. You could get your RB2 in the 5th round (I've certainly been forced into that before) at which Brown would be a bargain and not a cornerstone of your team.

For me, I'm grabbing Ronnie in the 3rd round of a 12 team league.


Of course. Part of the draft is about where opportunity meets draft position. I just assumed that was understood that at where he's going in mocks, I'm not keen on drafting him. His ADP outweighs his value right now in my opinion. Isn't he going around guys like Grant, P. Thomas, and K. Smith? Rather have anyone of those guys. I'm having a hard time with that part of the draft in general...right after RB14, WR10, QB3 I have a hard time deciding which way to go with my pick.


This is where we differ. I wouldn't take Grant or Smith over him at all. Pierre Thomas is in a similar situation where he's sharing carries although I still believe that Reggie Bush will take more carries than Ricky will.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby Azrael » Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:57 pm

biju wrote:
This is where we differ. I wouldn't take Grant or Smith over him at all. Pierre Thomas is in a similar situation where he's sharing carries although I still believe that Reggie Bush will take more carries than Ricky will.


I would take Grant and Smith for sheer opportunity. Both are feature backs. Grant had 1,200 yards while playing hurt half the season. Smith had almost 1,000 yards and only started 12 games. He will be used extensively in Linehan's offense.

I can see an argument on Pierre Thomas. I think it's obvious that the Deuce/Reggie thing worked well. Deuce just ran out of gas. Reggie has twice gotten hurt for the year when inserted into the feature back role. I'm pretty sure they won't do that again if they don't have to. It's pretty obvious that Deuce/Reggie 2006 is probably going to be Pierre/Reggie 2009. New Orleans has averaged about 18 rushing TDs per year the last 3 years. Atleast 2/3 of those will be Pierre's. I think he will receive more scoring opportunities than Brown and so I'd give him the nod. I wasn't impressed by Miami's offense last year especially against the weak stretch schedule. There are too many ifs there for me. If the line plays better...if some of the WRs grow up...if Ricky doesn't get as much PT...if Ronnie's back to full strength, not to mention Miami's schedule is brutal this year. If I'm not taking one of those other backs, I'm targeting a different position. He's just getting too much love for me considering his putrid second half.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby LS2throwed » Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:06 am

aaawall91 wrote:
LS2throwed wrote:

My thing is, can Ronnie stay healthy? He's never really done it before, so I like to point that out to people who project him to explode this year...It's possible, but for a guy who has never stayed healthy I think it's a legit concern. Now when I brought up the argument between him and Steven Jackson and I was flamed for it, but both guys can't stay healthy and Ronnie has just as good of a chance of producing much like Jackson does.



Ronnie played all 16 last year :-?



Your right, I forgot that he did last year...It still seems like a reoccuring theme for him.




Kensat30 wrote:For all the talk that Ricky was invisible last year, then why were they giving him the ball 10 times a game to Ronnie Brown's 14 or so. I too bought into the easy end of schedule hype only to watch Ronnie Brown wither down the stretch even while watching Ricky Williams on occasion putting up the better fantasy numbers (still not great by any means).



Why would they give Ronnie more carries then that freshly off a complete ACL tear? That wouldn't make sense, and it probably wasn't physically possible for him to do yet, nor should anyone should of expected Ronnie to get 23 carries a game and he wasn't even 100% yet.


I think it's more logical to expect the gap between the two to shift even more this year giving Ronnie towards 20 carries a game to Ricky's 9-10.
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Re: Ronnie Brown

Postby Free Bagel » Wed Jul 08, 2009 9:00 am

LS2throwed wrote:Why would they give Ronnie more carries then that freshly off a complete ACL tear? That wouldn't make sense, and it probably wasn't physically possible for him to do yet, nor should anyone should of expected Ronnie to get 23 carries a game and he wasn't even 100% yet.

I think it's more logical to expect the gap between the two to shift even more this year giving Ronnie towards 20 carries a game to Ricky's 9-10.


Not to mention that Ricky is 32 years old now...
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