So who are the big busts for the 09' season? We are talking about all of the sleepers, rebounders, but who is going to get drafted earlier and just not produce. Here are mine:
Steven Jackson- Until he can play and entire 16 game season, I"m not sure I would want to take the chance and draft this guy early. He is a top rb when he is healthy, but that is his problem, he is never healthy. Maybe he is the new Fragile Fred Tyalor and he will finally put it together this season, but I will believe it when I see it. Brian Westbrook- also another injury risk, when healthy he puts up great numbers. But with offseason surgery and them drafting a rb early I can see Westy losing touches to keep him primed for a playoff run (may be bad for fantasy but good for Philly). TJ Housh- he is a good possession wr, but I don't see him putting up big numbers that equal what he is being paid in Seattle.
I think Housh is a pretty poor choice of a bust option...he's got a good QB and he's not in a system that absolutely PERFECTLY fits him as a WR. That has boom written all over it.
Here are some guys I could easily see busting (this is of course in comparison to where they are being taken):
Philip Rivers - He's being taken a lot as a top 5 guy but the chances of him even reaching his pass attempt totals from last year are small as the SD defense will be better and there will be much less passing at the end of games (they passed more in the 4th quarter than any other team in the NFL last season) and with LT healthy, he'll be doing a lot of handing off to him later into games. I think he'll be around where he was before at maybe 460-470 attempts but he won't reach 4000 yards and 34 TDs again with those numbers. I think he finished outside of the top 10 at years end which would be a bust for where he's being taken.
DeAngelo Williams - Probably one of the most prime suspects for a "bust" season as he's being taken as a first rounder but he's another guy who was very productive with less touches and the chances of both him getting the same amount of touches and him getting the same numbers are very slim. Jonathan Stewart is awfully good and I think we'll see a bit more of him this year than we did last season.
Marques Colston - Still being taken by many as a WR1 or a high WR2 and yet he's never really been able to stay on the field long enough to earn it. Until he does I think he's being drafted too highly and will fail to live up to those expectations.
Dare I say LT. I'm sorry, but I just don't think he has the drive anymore, and more importantly I think his injuries are going to continue to nag him for the rest of his career. I'm sure most people will disagree with me, but, I call em as I see em.
mrblitz wrote:Dare I say LT. I'm sorry, but I just don't think he has the drive anymore, and more importantly I think his injuries are going to continue to nag him for the rest of his career. I'm sure most people will disagree with me, but, I call em as I see em.
You are of course entitled to your opinion but you have to have a better reason than "he doesn't have the drive anymore" as if there is something you will NEVER be able to say about LT it's that he doesn't have the drive or put in the effort to be great...there's a reason why he has been one of the most consistent RBs we've ever seen in the NFL.
What injuries exactly are going to continue to nag him too? His turf toe that is healed? The abdomen and groin injuries that he sustained at the end of last year that are healed? These aren't "lingering" types of injuries here...if he had some major knee injury or something I could see that but those injuries last year will have absolutely ZERO bearing on this season.
Well if LT was injured all last year and put up 1100 yards and 11 td's, I think that about 80% of the other rb's in the NFL would like to have a injury filled year such as his. I can see him rebounding and having 1300 yards and 12+tds this season.
I don't know that he will be a bust, but I think that Barber will have a less than season this year. My worry is that he will have more competition with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. The Cowboys have the look of a team in transistion. When transistion doesn't go well, we call it turmoil. They not only got rid of their best WR, but he was also a good downfield blocker. Not only will Roy Williams not demand double teams as much, but he isn't known to look for contact. Something needed to block downfield. And they still have dueling philosophies-Wade the dinosaur and the OC Garrett.
WR Antonio Bryant. QB questions, added pass catching RB will equal a dramatic fall off for Bryant.
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Tom Brady. That is, if you call 25 TD / 12 INT, 3000 yards a "bust."
1) I find it interesting that most leagues are drafting him like he's going to throw MORE than 50 td's and somehow get 5000 yards passing, because, "not only does he have all his weapons back, he now has Joey Galloway." I don't buy it. The guy averaged 24.5 TD's a season prior to 2007. Games 11-17 in '07? 2.2 TD's / game. More realistic than the nearly 4 per game he averaged prior.
2) It's cute to think that Belichick will be out to prove the doubters now that he has his poster-boy back, but I think Josh McDaniels and his run-centered offense (not to mention his slew of running backs) is more of a clue as to the direction the offense will go. Add to that the need to lessen the strain / risk on Brady's knee, they won't be so quick to pass EVERY freaking down. RUN, RUN, RUN. (that means NOT 50 td's).
3) The Pats have 5 games November-December in Foxboro or in East Coast climates. High passing totals this does not translate to.