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We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby St. Brian » Fri Aug 07, 2009 9:05 am

Yeah, I think 30-32 TDs is very realistic for Brady. Look at the numbers Cassel started putting up after he and Moss began clicking. Outside of the Chefs' personnel office, it's hard to find anybody that wouldn't say Brady is better than Cassel.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby 204BC » Sat Aug 08, 2009 1:40 pm

Not really a "bust" per se, but I think Matt Forte is going too high, especially in non-ppr leagues. I personally think that his draft position should be in the 5 - 10th pick range and not at #2 overall which is where he has been going in many leagues.

Reasons for this are:

1 Only averaged 3.9 yds/carry last season and I don't see any reason to expect the blocking to improve this year.

2 Had 316 rush attempts last season. I'd expect that to increase. Only Turner, Portis and ADP had more carries. Hopefully he doesn't break down.

3 Was Orton's favorite target out of the backfield. Will Cutler continue this trend or does he go downfield more? I think Forte's recieving numbers may take a drop. Orton often went to the checkdown, which was Forte. Cutler has a history of going for the big play and if he checks down it will likely be to Greg Olson the TE. Please don't think that I'm saying Forte doesn't catch any passes, but I wouldn't be surprised with a 20% drop.

4 Matchups. He has a pretty tough schedule facing some stout run defenses to start the year. Opens the season @ GB and then faces Pittsburgh in week 2. At the end of the year, particularly in weeks 15 and 16 when you would need him most (FF playoffs in most leagues) he faces two defenses back to back that you likely may not even want to start him against. Week 15 @ Baltimore and week 16 @ home vs Minnesota. Baltimore gave up ZERO rushing td's at home last season and only 4 on the year. If you do draft Forte it may be advisable to trade him before the playoffs start.

Don't get me wrong. I like Forte. If I'm sitting in the #7 draft slot and Fitz is gone I'd take him if he was there however unprobable that may be but if I'm drafting at #2 I'd take Turner or MJD instead.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby Motown Blues » Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:40 pm

204BC wrote:Not really a "bust" per se, but I think Matt Forte is going too high, especially in non-ppr leagues. I personally think that his draft position should be in the 5 - 10th pick range and not at #2 overall which is where he has been going in many leagues.

Reasons for this are...


Good points... ;-D
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby dmacblue » Sun Aug 09, 2009 1:48 am

Cassell- was sacked a lot behind pats O-Line last year...he is gonna be like an upturned turtle this year behind KC's O-Line. He will have to be so far back in the shotgun he will need a dang Cut Off man! He'll be on the I.R. imo.

Bowe - Decent reception total. very low TD's

Bryant - Career year in '08. New QB & I think they'll run a lot with Ward and Graham behind a solid O-Line.

DeAngelo - No disrespect to him, but we see more JStew this year.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby 34=Sweetness » Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:08 pm

204BC wrote:Not really a "bust" per se, but I think Matt Forte is going too high, especially in non-ppr leagues. I personally think that his draft position should be in the 5 - 10th pick range and not at #2 overall which is where he has been going in many leagues.

Reasons for this are:

1 Only averaged 3.9 yds/carry last season and I don't see any reason to expect the blocking to improve this year.

2 Had 316 rush attempts last season. I'd expect that to increase. Only Turner, Portis and ADP had more carries. Hopefully he doesn't break down.

3 Was Orton's favorite target out of the backfield. Will Cutler continue this trend or does he go downfield more? I think Forte's recieving numbers may take a drop. Orton often went to the checkdown, which was Forte. Cutler has a history of going for the big play and if he checks down it will likely be to Greg Olson the TE. Please don't think that I'm saying Forte doesn't catch any passes, but I wouldn't be surprised with a 20% drop.

4 Matchups. He has a pretty tough schedule facing some stout run defenses to start the year. Opens the season @ GB and then faces Pittsburgh in week 2. At the end of the year, particularly in weeks 15 and 16 when you would need him most (FF playoffs in most leagues) he faces two defenses back to back that you likely may not even want to start him against. Week 15 @ Baltimore and week 16 @ home vs Minnesota. Baltimore gave up ZERO rushing td's at home last season and only 4 on the year. If you do draft Forte it may be advisable to trade him before the playoffs start.

Don't get me wrong. I like Forte. If I'm sitting in the #7 draft slot and Fitz is gone I'd take him if he was there however unprobable that may be but if I'm drafting at #2 I'd take Turner or MJD instead.

I'll disagree. The 3.9 yards was mostly because no one respected the Bears passing game in addition to o-line woes. If Cutler is as good as he was in Denver, teams won't be able to leave 8 in the box like they did all of last season versus the Bears.

The end of the year matchups and the amount of touches Forte had last year do scare me, but I think he's solidly top 5.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby 204BC » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:12 pm

34=Sweetness wrote:I'll disagree. The 3.9 yards was mostly because no one respected the Bears passing game in addition to o-line woes. If Cutler is as good as he was in Denver, teams won't be able to leave 8 in the box like they did all of last season versus the Bears.

The end of the year matchups and the amount of touches Forte had last year do scare me, but I think he's solidly top 5.


Valid point, but....

The Bears didn't exactly have a 50/50 ratio of passes to rushes last year. In fact they passed more than they ran. They only ran the ball 463 times vs attempting 528 passes. I will concede that nobody respected their passing game but at the same time I don't feel that was entirely Orton's fault. He had nobody to throw the ball to except for Greg Olson or Matt Forte. Cutler will at least in my opinion throw to the WR's more but you need to remember that he doesn't have the same WR corps that he had in Denver. This is why there's quite a bit of talk on Orton being an undervalued player this year. He'll actually have recievers that can get open and catch the ball. Cutler is going to find himself in a much different predicament this season.

That being said I still like Forte, just not at #2 overall and he may very well break into the top 5. I just don't think he'll end up at #2.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby sirchadwick1 » Tue Aug 11, 2009 7:45 am

mattb47 wrote:
mrblitz wrote:Dare I say LT. I'm sorry, but I just don't think he has the drive anymore, and more importantly I think his injuries are going to continue to nag him for the rest of his career. I'm sure most people will disagree with me, but, I call em as I see em.


You are of course entitled to your opinion but you have to have a better reason than "he doesn't have the drive anymore" as if there is something you will NEVER be able to say about LT it's that he doesn't have the drive or put in the effort to be great...there's a reason why he has been one of the most consistent RBs we've ever seen in the NFL.

What injuries exactly are going to continue to nag him too? His turf toe that is healed? The abdomen and groin injuries that he sustained at the end of last year that are healed? These aren't "lingering" types of injuries here...if he had some major knee injury or something I could see that but those injuries last year will have absolutely ZERO bearing on this season.


LT has also stated that he wants his buddy Sproles to get more carries this year. Norv didn't like the idea at first, but now there are rumors floating around that he's listening to LT and considering. Either way, the fact that LT said this makes me weary. Possibly he doesn't feel like he can carry the full load this year... and that's why I'm hesitant to take him even late in the 1st.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby mattb47 » Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:45 pm

sirchadwick1 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:
mrblitz wrote:Dare I say LT. I'm sorry, but I just don't think he has the drive anymore, and more importantly I think his injuries are going to continue to nag him for the rest of his career. I'm sure most people will disagree with me, but, I call em as I see em.


You are of course entitled to your opinion but you have to have a better reason than "he doesn't have the drive anymore" as if there is something you will NEVER be able to say about LT it's that he doesn't have the drive or put in the effort to be great...there's a reason why he has been one of the most consistent RBs we've ever seen in the NFL.

What injuries exactly are going to continue to nag him too? His turf toe that is healed? The abdomen and groin injuries that he sustained at the end of last year that are healed? These aren't "lingering" types of injuries here...if he had some major knee injury or something I could see that but those injuries last year will have absolutely ZERO bearing on this season.


LT has also stated that he wants his buddy Sproles to get more carries this year. Norv didn't like the idea at first, but now there are rumors floating around that he's listening to LT and considering. Either way, the fact that LT said this makes me weary. Possibly he doesn't feel like he can carry the full load this year... and that's why I'm hesitant to take him even late in the 1st.


Do you have a link or something to support that? Otherwise it's really just unfounded statements.

Even so...if they do give Sproles more touches...he'll likely only reach the Michael Turner level value wise when he was there with LT. Sproles only averaged about 3 carries and almost 2 receptions per game last season (taking out his last game when LT got hurt and he had more touches), so an increase from that is nothing earth shattering. Even if he gets double those touches he's not even getting 100 carries on the season which leaves PLENTY of carries for LT to still reach the 320+ that Turner wants him to get to this season.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby wet_fantasy » Fri Aug 14, 2009 11:00 am

i think LT will shine this year....
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby 2ksports » Sat Aug 15, 2009 2:57 am

Matt Forte - what horrendous YPC, Kevin Jones may be the better pass catcher out of the backfield, and it's Jay Cutler's team now so they will air it. I will never draft him b/c I have him going around the 3rd round where I'm placing him. You know when 5 of 10 RBs in the 1st 2 rounds always bust? Matt Forte is one of those.

Thomas Jones - no talent.

Marion Barber - He's good, but will he get enough carries with the emergence of a better RB? (Felix Jones - clearly a fantasy superstar in the making)
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