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We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby nicksti » Sun Aug 16, 2009 10:51 am

Motown Blues wrote:Tom Brady. That is, if you call 25 TD / 12 INT, 3000 yards a "bust."

1) I find it interesting that most leagues are drafting him like he's going to throw MORE than 50 td's and somehow get 5000 yards passing, because, "not only does he have all his weapons back, he now has Joey Galloway." I don't buy it. The guy averaged 24.5 TD's a season prior to 2007. Games 11-17 in '07? 2.2 TD's / game. More realistic than the nearly 4 per game he averaged prior.

2) It's cute to think that Belichick will be out to prove the doubters now that he has his poster-boy back, but I think Josh McDaniels and his run-centered offense (not to mention his slew of running backs) is more of a clue as to the direction the offense will go. Add to that the need to lessen the strain / risk on Brady's knee, they won't be so quick to pass EVERY freaking down. RUN, RUN, RUN. (that means NOT 50 td's).

3) The Pats have 5 games November-December in Foxboro or in East Coast climates. High passing totals this does not translate to.


[good question, btw ;-D ]


I will go on record and say that Brady busting is the absolute worst call possible. I drafted Brady last year and crashed to last but the guy will not bust barring another game 1 injury.

No point in calling any number Brady had before 2007. In 2006 Randy Moss was in Oakland and Moss will change any QBs numbers alone. Toss it long and he will do his job.

Run, Run, Run with who? Fred Taylor is a fossil, but does get hard yards. Laurence Maroney just has not panned out yet.

So if Brady busts then Moss, Welker, and Watson bust.

I called it just before Jay Cutler played in the pre-season game. He is on bust watch. Chicago's strongest receivers are their TEs and Cutler is more accustomed to throwing to stronger WRs. Daniel Graham vs Desmond Clark + Greg Olsen. I am more comfortable about Cassel's situation (but we will see his true skill now) than Cutler (who are his WRs? Hester?)
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby Crazed98 » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:16 pm

I agree no way Brady busts barring injury. Cutler is a prime for a bust year. I may even take a QB earlier just to avoid getting stuck with Cutler as my #1
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby Motown Blues » Sun Aug 16, 2009 4:40 pm

I will go on record and say that Brady busting is the absolute worst call possible...

:-b If that's not hyperbole, then I am not sure how to define it. Note that I still expect top-5 numbers from him. I simply believe that everyone is expecting 50 TD's+, and I don't think he'll get there.

No point in calling any number Brady had before 2007. In 2006 Randy Moss was in Oakland and Moss will change any QBs numbers alone. Toss it long and he will do his job.

Yes, I believe there is a point to calling in pre-2007 numbers; re: Brady's numbers after game 11 of that year.

Run, Run, Run with who? Fred Taylor is a fossil, but does get hard yards. Laurence Maroney just has not panned out yet.

:-? How about Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and their 1200 rushing yards in '08? And Taylor's "hard yards" thrown in, they don't need Maroney. Note that I mentioned the hiring of a new offensive coordinator, and he enjoys running the ball....FIRST.

So if Brady busts then Moss, Welker, and Watson bust.

:-S Did you just read "Tom Brady," quote me, but NOT read the all the content of my post? If Moss NOT getting 23 td's and Welker NOT catching 100 passes, but still post top-10 numbers "busts," then fine. But I believe that their numbers will dip considerably from '07.

Believe the hype and draft Tom Brady way too early...and when the playoffs start, and you've got Brady throwing in a week-14 snow storm, come back and tell me if you win. ;-D

I called it just before Jay Cutler played in the pre-season game. He is on bust watch. Chicago's strongest receivers are their TEs and Cutler is more accustomed to throwing to stronger WRs. Daniel Graham vs Desmond Clark + Greg Olsen. I am more comfortable about Cassel's situation (but we will see his true skill now) than Cutler (who are his WRs? Hester?)

I will go on record and say that you shouldn't spend too much time patting yourself on the back. I think EVERYONE is expecting Cutler to be far from what he was in Denver. I won't call it a "bust" because he'll probably produce around what everyone expects.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby nicksti » Sun Aug 16, 2009 5:47 pm

Motown Blues wrote:
I will go on record and say that Brady busting is the absolute worst call possible...

:-b If that's not hyperbole, then I am not sure how to define it. Note that I still expect top-5 numbers from him. I simply believe that everyone is expecting 50 TD's+, and I don't think he'll get there.

No point in calling any number Brady had before 2007. In 2006 Randy Moss was in Oakland and Moss will change any QBs numbers alone. Toss it long and he will do his job.

Yes, I believe there is a point to calling in pre-2007 numbers; re: Brady's numbers after game 11 of that year.

Run, Run, Run with who? Fred Taylor is a fossil, but does get hard yards. Laurence Maroney just has not panned out yet.

:-? How about Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and their 1200 rushing yards in '08? And Taylor's "hard yards" thrown in, they don't need Maroney. Note that I mentioned the hiring of a new offensive coordinator, and he enjoys running the ball....FIRST.

So if Brady busts then Moss, Welker, and Watson bust.

:-S Did you just read "Tom Brady," quote me, but NOT read the all the content of my post? If Moss NOT getting 23 td's and Welker NOT catching 100 passes, but still post top-10 numbers "busts," then fine. But I believe that their numbers will dip considerably from '07.

Believe the hype and draft Tom Brady way too early...and when the playoffs start, and you've got Brady throwing in a week-14 snow storm, come back and tell me if you win. ;-D

I called it just before Jay Cutler played in the pre-season game. He is on bust watch. Chicago's strongest receivers are their TEs and Cutler is more accustomed to throwing to stronger WRs. Daniel Graham vs Desmond Clark + Greg Olsen. I am more comfortable about Cassel's situation (but we will see his true skill now) than Cutler (who are his WRs? Hester?)

I will go on record and say that you shouldn't spend too much time patting yourself on the back. I think EVERYONE is expecting Cutler to be far from what he was in Denver. I won't call it a "bust" because he'll probably produce around what everyone expects.


"Believe the hype and draft Tom Brady way too early...and when the playoffs start, and you've got Brady throwing in a week-14 snow storm, come back and tell me if you win. ;-D" That is an entirely different story which we aren't really addressing. 50TD Brady is still throwing into blizzards.

In an effort to not drag this out all I will say is this:

Brady will not go from 50TD to 25TDs because of his numbers in 2006 are a more accurate reflection of him as a QB. QBs have to throw to someone and Branch & Brown are not Moss and Welker. He should finish in the top 4 QBs in fantasy points barring injury.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby Motown Blues » Sun Aug 16, 2009 10:09 pm

Brady will not go from 50TD to 25TDs because of his numbers in 2006 are a more accurate reflection of him as a QB.

You don't recall the other reasons I listed? You've simplified my argument to a single, narrow point. Actually, I made a "bust" call based on a SET of legitimate reasons, not simply a regurgitation of facts I can find in every 2009 fantasy magazine (like, say...calling Jay Cutler on official "bust watch"): new offensive scheme, need to protect Brady, trend toward tamer numbers at the close of '07, WEATHER (i.e., New England blizzards in December).
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby nicksti » Mon Aug 17, 2009 5:09 pm

I guess we will have to wait and see. That is all we can do now. I don't think Brady will be back to numbers he posted pre Randy Moss. I don't think that New England will go from a Pass Happy offense to a Run, Run, Run offense. And the Pats always have inclimental games at the end of the year.

But I am human and if I could predict the future I would have won the lottery 3 times (and no more to stay below the radar) and always draft a perfect team.

We will see. I think 25 TDs is too low and he will have 33 to 35 barring injury to him or Randy Moss.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby Motown Blues » Mon Aug 17, 2009 10:46 pm

nicksti wrote:I guess we will have to wait and see. That is all we can do now. I don't think Brady will be back to numbers he posted pre Randy Moss. I don't think that New England will go from a Pass Happy offense to a Run, Run, Run offense. And the Pats always have inclimental games at the end of the year.

But I am human and if I could predict the future I would have won the lottery 3 times (and no more to stay below the radar) and always draft a perfect team.

We will see. I think 25 TDs is too low and he will have 33 to 35 barring injury to him or Randy Moss.

Fair enough! ;-D
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby 2ksports » Tue Aug 18, 2009 2:42 pm

Brady is one of the best practicers (if that's even a word) in the NFL. Barring injury, he will not "bust". He works too hard to fail on game day.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby cloudwasher » Wed Aug 19, 2009 1:54 am

Here are my bust picks:

Larry Fitzgerald - He's got the Madden Curse. He'll be injured in week 2 and be out for the season.

(Just Kidding.)

Maurice Jones-Drew - I don't think he'll be a "bust" so much as he will just not live up to the position that a lot of people are drafting him at. (PPR league people, skip the remainder of this and advance to next) I'm seeing people taking him ahead of AP and Michael Turner in non-PPR leagues, which is just madness. He averaged 4.2 ypc last year (which has dropped every year of his career thus far), has never rushed more than 1000 yards in a season in his career, and is playing behind an injury-prone offensive line (anyone remember last year? They added Tra Thomas, but he's getting old and backed up by rookies). Admittedly, Fred Taylor is gone, but even Fred Taylor didnt get more than 230 carries in any of the last four years which suggests that it is Del Rio's policy to split carries between two backs to minimize wear and tear (Enter Rashad Jennings and Greg Jones). Not only that, but MJD got most of his TDs last year due to an anemic passing game that resulted from a complete lack of WR talent, which has been taken care of by the addition of Torry Holt (and the effect of this will actually only be compounded if somehow the O-line does stay healthy, since they'll have time to look further down the field than MJD standing 5 yards from the line of scrimmage). Throw in on top of all that the fact that with Fred Taylor gone, every defense is going to have a big bullseye on MJD when they play Jacksonville and he'll be spotlighted in a way that MJD hasn't seen up until this year. Basically to sum it up, I think the guy will be a top 10 back, but probably not top 5.

Antonio Bryant - He was a perennial disappointer until last season, and after one season people seem to forget that he's averaged 725 yards/3.7 TDs per season over the course of his career. Throw in the fact that he's going to have a new QB who is going to be questionable at best (be it Leftwich or Freeman) and you've got a recipe for a bust if you're expecting him to repeat last year. He's a weak WR2, good WR3 at best.

Matt Cassel - I see him ranked as high as in the top 15 QBs on some people's rankings and this just confuses me. He's only played one full season of football (last year) since leaving high school, doesn't have nearly the weapons he had in NE, and he has looked horrible in training camp and preseason so far from all accounts. The best you'll get out of him is a decent backup, and the worst... complete disaster.

LT - He's getting older, has been plagued by injuries and will likely have to split more carries with Sproles than in previous years before his injuries. Unfortunately coaches dont think in FF terms and are looking to keep him around beyond this year. He got 300+ carries in every year up unti last year, and I don't see him getting 300+ carries this year with his age, injury problems from last year, and the emergence of Sproles. Again, I don't think he'll be a "bust", but I dont think he's worth the value that a lot of people are drafting him at... he'd be a good RB2. His production will match last years, if not a little bit less.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby Motown Blues » Wed Aug 19, 2009 7:00 am

LT - He's getting older, has been plagued by injuries and will likely have to split more carries with Sproles than in previous years before his injuries. Unfortunately coaches dont think in FF terms and are looking to keep him around beyond this year. He got 300+ carries in every year up unti last year, and I don't see him getting 300+ carries this year with his age, injury problems from last year, and the emergence of Sproles. Again, I don't think he'll be a "bust", but I dont think he's worth the value that a lot of people are drafting him at... he'd be a good RB2. His production will match last years, if not a little bit less.


I have a big draft coming in two weeks, and I have the #4 pick (PPR). Assuming ADP, MJD, Forte all go, I have decisions to make. One day I think you are RIGHT and I want to avoid LT. The next day I am paranoid that it's going to be a HUGE year for him (he won't be playing with turf toe), and I'll kick myself for not drafting him. It's a tough one to predict. You could be right... :-?
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