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We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby 2ksports » Wed Aug 19, 2009 1:27 pm

Motown Blues wrote:
LT - He's getting older, has been plagued by injuries and will likely have to split more carries with Sproles than in previous years before his injuries. Unfortunately coaches dont think in FF terms and are looking to keep him around beyond this year. He got 300+ carries in every year up unti last year, and I don't see him getting 300+ carries this year with his age, injury problems from last year, and the emergence of Sproles. Again, I don't think he'll be a "bust", but I dont think he's worth the value that a lot of people are drafting him at... he'd be a good RB2. His production will match last years, if not a little bit less.


I have a big draft coming in two weeks, and I have the #4 pick (PPR). Assuming ADP, MJD, Forte all go, I have decisions to make. One day I think you are RIGHT and I want to avoid LT. The next day I am paranoid that it's going to be a HUGE year for him (he won't be playing with turf toe), and I'll kick myself for not drafting him. It's a tough one to predict. You could be right... :-?


I'll take my chances at the 4 spot with LT. He LOOKS fine to me on the field. He prepares well, he doesn't take big hits, and he had an alibi (turf toe) last year and still put up good #s. There is absolutely no reason to believe that he will get less than 4.0 ypc again in the abysmal AFC West barring another injury.

He is a much better pick than Forte imo.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby 2ksports » Wed Aug 19, 2009 2:59 pm

I got another bust (for where he is being drafted)

Chris Johnson.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby St. Brian » Thu Aug 20, 2009 11:39 pm

I consider Brady a lock for 30, and he's a QB you'll have to take in the 2nd round at latest. Part of that's because he's Tom Brady. I think Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers have a shot at 30 TDs too and can be had two rounds later.

I don't think most of the folks drafting Brady early expect 50 TDs again, that's a once in a lifetime performance. But the top tier at QB is considered to be Brees, Brady and Manning because barring injury you can pencil in 4,000 yards and 30 TDs.

I agree with Chris Johnson as a potential bust considering his ADP. He has some red flags not limited to a crappy overall passing game and the literal definition of touchdown vulture LenDale White around. I'm always nervous about players until I see them do it 2-3 years consistently. That also worries about DeAngelo Williams. DW also has a suspect QB and another back that could easily put up better stats if he gets hot.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby bazzy_51 » Mon Aug 24, 2009 3:27 pm

St. Brian wrote:I consider Brady a lock for 30, and he's a QB you'll have to take in the 2nd round at latest. Part of that's because he's Tom Brady. I think Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers have a shot at 30 TDs too and can be had two rounds later.

I don't think most of the folks drafting Brady early expect 50 TDs again, that's a once in a lifetime performance. But the top tier at QB is considered to be Brees, Brady and Manning because barring injury you can pencil in 4,000 yards and 30 TDs.

I agree with Chris Johnson as a potential bust considering his ADP. He has some red flags not limited to a crappy overall passing game and the literal definition of touchdown vulture LenDale White around. I'm always nervous about players until I see them do it 2-3 years consistently. That also worries about DeAngelo Williams. DW also has a suspect QB and another back that could easily put up better stats if he gets hot.


i agree with most of what you posted but... calling Delhomme suspect is a bit much, a season of 3500+ and 25TDs+ i think is a tad bit better then suspect. and its not so much the stats that he DOES put up, its more so the presence of a true passing game thats healthy that will help DWill more. im not a DWill fan by any means, but JStew is a ticking time bomb, and with a healthy Delhomme, Smith and Mashim in the passing game it can do nothing but increase his value. again im not saying Jake goes for 4000+ with 30TDs, but his presence on the field limits the defenses a hell of alot more then having Matt Moore out there at the helm...
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby FatFoot » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:56 pm

204BC wrote:Not really a "bust" per se, but I think Matt Forte is going too high, especially in non-ppr leagues. I personally think that his draft position should be in the 5 - 10th pick range and not at #2 overall which is where he has been going in many leagues.


A bust, IMO would have to mean ending up out of the tier he's drafted in. #2 overall is IMO too high for Forte as well, but even if you draft him #2 and he ends up landing top 5 that's hardly even a remote bust. Bottom line is, there are very few sure things in RB. ADP and Turner barring injuries, are my 1 and 2. Anyone else you draft from 3 on down, as long as they land in the top 10, you can't really feel too bad about it, because it starts ending up "Psychic Friends Network." Forte is a bust if you draft him top 10 and he doesn't make the top 10. It's not being a bust if someone drafts him 1 or 2, and he ends up being 10. It's a STUPID FF OWNER. IMHORTFMWTF.

1 Only averaged 3.9 yds/carry last season and I don't see any reason to expect the blocking to improve this year.


If he averaged 3.9 yards and was still a must start last year, and he's used the same way this year, and is as healthy, then it doesn't matter if the blocking improves. But if you don't see a reason to expect the blocking to improve this year, you haven't really paid close enough attention to the Bears offseason to really be making this comment. Even a cursory look implies that there's reason to expect an improvement in the blocking. And few believe that teams will be able to stack the box like last year. Better blocking and one fewer to block... IMO expect a difference.

2 Had 316 rush attempts last season. I'd expect that to increase. Only Turner, Portis and ADP had more carries. Hopefully he doesn't break down.


This is the concern, IMO. But it's also a fair concern for ANY of the top 10, and PARTICULARLY the my top 2.

3 Was Orton's favorite target out of the backfield. Will Cutler continue this trend or does he go downfield more? I think Forte's recieving numbers may take a drop. Orton often went to the checkdown, which was Forte. Cutler has a history of going for the big play and if he checks down it will likely be to Greg Olson the TE. Please don't think that I'm saying Forte doesn't catch any passes, but I wouldn't be surprised with a 20% drop.


Olsen isn't usually a checkdown target. It seems to me that he's running a sideline or across the middle most of the time, and is an intended target. I think there is reason to expect that Cutler will make more use of a greater number of targets than Orton did, and that could cut down looks to Forte. But it's also likely that there will be fewer 3 and outs, which may well mean a greater number of looks. And I also expect early leads more than last year, which often means more touches.

4 Matchups. He has a pretty tough schedule facing some stout run defenses to start the year. Opens the season @ GB and then faces Pittsburgh in week 2. At the end of the year, particularly in weeks 15 and 16 when you would need him most (FF playoffs in most leagues) he faces two defenses back to back that you likely may not even want to start him against. Week 15 @ Baltimore and week 16 @ home vs Minnesota. Baltimore gave up ZERO rushing td's at home last season and only 4 on the year. If you do draft Forte it may be advisable to trade him before the playoffs start.


These are things that we have to see before we worry about. The Bears themselves had a monster defense from 05-07. Last year they were a joke. I'm not extending guarantees to Baltimore this season. Minnesota is a little more scary, IMO. But again, a more balanced offense could be a big factor in working around this. In any event, I don't see crowning any of these defenses yet.

Don't get me wrong. I like Forte. If I'm sitting in the #7 draft slot and Fitz is gone I'd take him if he was there however unprobable that may be but if I'm drafting at #2 I'd take Turner or MJD instead.


If I were drafting 8, and you were at 7, I'd be thrilled if you took Fitz and left me Forte. But the bottom line is, where does he have to sink, to be a bust?
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby NYMetsIn2k4 » Sun Aug 30, 2009 4:54 am

Bust Definition: a player who drastically under-performs in relevance to where they were drafted

I think were all in agreeance with that statement right?

With that said, Jay Cutler keeps being brought up as a "Bust" candidate which I find utterly ridiculous. The truth of the matter is, hes the 11th QB being taken and the 84th overall pick (ADPs taken off of ffballcalculator.com). When you consider last season he was the 3rd highest scoring fantasy QB, posting over 4500 yds and 25 passing TDs in only his 3rd season in the league (2nd as a starter), one would only imagine his stock being sky-high going into 09 (to the tune of a top 5 QB pick and a sure bet to be taken off the board before the 4th round). But the reality we live in has him going mid 8th (10 team)/ end of 7th (12 team) behind the likes of Matt Schaub/Matt Ryan. My honest opinion says hes going to finish easily inside the top 10 Fantasy QBs, thus making him not even close to a "bust". His weapons in Chicago arent as talented as those he had in Denver but they are definitely more than capable and he has a running game he didnt have in Denver to mix it up with the PA Pass. EBennett, Hester, Olsen and Forte are sufficient enough passing options for Cutler to unleash his talents. I think everyone who is labeling Cutler a "bust" is saying that because they dont expect him to repeat last years numbers, which may be true, but the fact that I am certain he will outperform his Draft Position makes him more of a "sleeper" than a "bust".
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby 011472 » Sun Aug 30, 2009 3:17 pm

FatFoot wrote:IMHORTFMWTF.


Just wondering what this stands for.

My bust candidate is Chris Johnson.
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby DrEricFautstein » Fri Sep 11, 2009 11:25 pm

Man, im hoping Westbrook is a bust this year, i could get some ridiculous value out of LeSean McCoy... but i love Westbrook, i have had him 3 years in a row exept this year...bc i think this is his year he goes down :(

I think Forte wont be a top 10 overall player, i think Kevin Smith will be a bust, Steve Slaton will be a bust, L.Evans will be a bust again, and NYJ defense will also underperform (most are taking them 3-5th def taken...)
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Re: We have sleepers, but who are the BUSTS this year???

Postby Motown Blues » Sat Oct 10, 2009 9:22 am

Motown Blues wrote:Tom Brady. That is, if you call 25 TD / 12 INT, 3000 yards a "bust."

1) I find it interesting that most leagues are drafting him like he's going to throw MORE than 50 td's and somehow get 5000 yards passing, because, "not only does he have all his weapons back, he now has Joey Galloway." I don't buy it. The guy averaged 24.5 TD's a season prior to 2007. Games 11-17 in '07? 2.2 TD's / game. More realistic than the nearly 4 per game he averaged prior.

2) It's cute to think that Belichick will be out to prove the doubters now that he has his poster-boy back, but I think Josh McDaniels and his run-centered offense (not to mention his slew of running backs) is more of a clue as to the direction the offense will go. Add to that the need to lessen the strain / risk on Brady's knee, they won't be so quick to pass EVERY freaking down. RUN, RUN, RUN. (that means NOT 50 td's).

3) The Pats have 5 games November-December in Foxboro or in East Coast climates. High passing totals this does not translate to.


[good question, btw ;-D ]


4 games, 4 TD's...so far, a BUST
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