smackthefirst wrote:Trust me timbathia, I didn't believe it either when I saw it. Since I'm not in many 16 teamers, I don't normally pay attention to the draft situations as much as I do in 12 teamers. But I was going off the ADP for real leagues from MFL and I was amazed to see how late some of the RBs were going. Here's some of the key RBs from the ADP rankings I just ran on MFL for 16 team redraft real (not mock) leagues:
Amazing right? What's odd is I know 12 team league drafts and MFL's ADP for those leagues is a pretty good representation so I have to assume that the 16 team results are also a pretty good representation. But I would agree that I wouldn't have expected those names to be available at those spots.
Those ADPs surprise me. However, I dont have proof, but in my experience those rankings wont hold in a 16 team league. Most serious FFLers would never consider going into the 5th round of a draft without 2 RBs, especially in a flex league where you can start 3. In a 16 team league, as least 32 running backs are started each week, with possibly up to 48. LJ, Ward etc will be starting RBs on someones roster as they are ranked in the top 30. If they are available in the 5th round, it means multiple owners only have 1 RB at that stage - I cant imagine that would happen. RBs end up very scarce in a 16 team-flex league, so normally they get drafted at much higher ADPs as owners want to make sure they have two startable ones (and some owners go RB/RB/RB because of the flex).
smackthefirst wrote:Trust me timbathia, I didn't believe it either when I saw it. Since I'm not in many 16 teamers, I don't normally pay attention to the draft situations as much as I do in 12 teamers. But I was going off the ADP for real leagues from MFL and I was amazed to see how late some of the RBs were going. Here's some of the key RBs from the ADP rankings I just ran on MFL for 16 team redraft real (not mock) leagues:
Amazing right? What's odd is I know 12 team league drafts and MFL's ADP for those leagues is a pretty good representation so I have to assume that the 16 team results are also a pretty good representation. But I would agree that I wouldn't have expected those names to be available at those spots.
Those ADPs surprise me. However, I dont have proof, but in my experience those rankings wont hold in a 16 team league. Most serious FFLers would never consider going into the 5th round of a draft without 2 RBs, especially in a flex league where you can start 3. In a 16 team league, as least 32 running backs are started each week, with possibly up to 48. LJ, Ward etc will be starting RBs on someones roster as they are ranked in the top 30. If they are available in the 5th round, it means multiple owners only have 1 RB at that stage - I cant imagine that would happen. RBs end up very scarce in a 16 team-flex league, so normally they get drafted at much higher ADPs as owners want to make sure they have two startable ones (and some owners go RB/RB/RB because of the flex).
I agree that I wouldn't assume it happening either and if I were in a 16 team league with a flex position, you can bet that I would have at least 3 RBs no later than my 4th pick. Also, I hate to correct myself, and at least I made it more than aware that I don't personally do 16 team leagues; but I went back and looked at the ADPs from MFL because they have been bothering me since my 1st post and I realized that the results are pulling from a total of 5 (yes five) drafts. So this shows me two things. The first is that 16 team leagues just aren't that popular and second that the data MFL is presenting should be taken with a grain of salt as it is a very small sample size.
As a general rule of thumb the middle tiers of WRS and RBs will go earlier than their average ADP suggests because the guys who are WR3s and RB3s are now RB2s in a depper league. And owners will want to get a RB2 before moving on to other positions.
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by Timbathia » Sat Jul 18, 2009 7:58 pm 
