I was wondering what everyone thought of Jason Witten this season? I understand he is probably going to be the first TE taken in almost every draft but where should you draft him. TE is extremely deep again this year and I typically don't begin targeting one until rounds 6-8. Most of my leagues play with 3 wideouts and I beleive that with TO in the great north Wittens value becomes that of a #2 WR. Is he possibly worth of a 4th or 5th round selection??
What is everyones opinons of Witten for this year?
I'm more of a PPR guy so I can only speak about those leagues. But Witten in a PPR is going right around the turn from round 3 to round 4 this year in many of my 12 team leagues. Expecting to get Witten in the 4th in this format is a gamble and I highly doubt you will ever see him available in the 5th. With that being said, I'm not a big fan of spending a 4th round pick (or better) on a TE. If you're really looking to get a highly ranked TE, I would wait until another owner makes the move for Witten and then line up one of Gates, Gonzo, or Clark a round or two after Witten gets taken.
Overall, I think the sweet spots this year are right around TE4-5 in rounds 7 or 8 or waiting until TE12-15 into the double digit rounds. I'm content drafting a guy like Heath Miller or Tony Scheffler as the 15 TE off the board in round 15 or I can take Chris Cooley in round 7 or 8. Depends on draft and the scoring system.
I don't think Witten is worth an early pick due to his lack of TD production in standard leagues. PPR may be a different story, but I for one don't think the guy is that much of an improvement over options to go later in drafts. Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez in their heydays (1000/10+) were barely worth a 3rd. No way is Jason Witten at that level.
Witten, Gates and Gonzo seem to be going within a dozen picks of each other in that order. I would add Dallas Clark to that list as the last elite TE but you can get him a good 15-25 picks later.
TE's are tricky. Yes, they have been deep for the last year or two but there is only 2-4 that are elite and outpoint the pack by 30-40 points over a year.
To my eye this year, the jumbled mess of depth at WR is easier to take advantage of this year. Once you hit roughly the WR17-20 range I am guessing that WR17 to say WR30 or so will all be around the same points at year's end.
Now, specifically on Witten, not so sure TO leaving is best for him. To going wide opened things up for Witten. If Roy W can keep the defense honest, then he will have elite numbers. Roy W turns into Patrick Crayton, Witten will have a lot less room down the middle.
To me, like I said, I'll let that first guy grab Witten and then base the remaining guys off of where Witten goes. To me Witten is a good TE, but I don't see him being a full round better than Gates in production by year's end. And then the same argument can be made for Gonzo and Clark in regards to Gates.
I really like Witten this year and have him ranked somewhere around the 30th player on my board overall. I think Witten is head and shoulders above the other TEs in PPR leagues and the projected point differential between both him and the next best TE as well as him and a replacement level TE warrants a 4th and perhaps even a 3rd round pick IMO.
I haven't quite decided exactly where I rank him but I think I would take him ahead of wideouts like Bowe, TO, Roy Williams and RBs like Thomas Jones, Reggie Bush, and Ryan Grant. I have no problem burning an early round pick on a TE (and have done so many times in the past) if the value's there and I think Witten easily warrants it this year, at least in PPR leagues.