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The AFC North theory

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The AFC North theory

Postby 011472 » Wed Jul 15, 2009 4:41 pm

I think I'm looking for someone to knock me back to reality on this one. My mind says that this is a terrible idea, but my heart says it's the type of gutsy move that makes playoff teams.

After looking at schedules, I was thinking that I could cheaply get Parker, McGahee and Benson at my auction (provided that they're available and the starters at the end of August), and platoon them as a three-way RB2. Each team keeps 3 players, and I'll be keeping Forte as my RB1. They have ridiculous schedules:

1- Benson vs. Denver (27th against the run in 2008), McG vs KC (30)
2- Benson @ GB (26)
3- McG vs. Cleve (28)
4- Benson @ Cleve (28)
5- Parker @ Detroit (32)
6- Parker vs. Cleve (28)
7- poor matchups
8- McG vs. Denver (27)
9- Parker @ Den (27)
10- McG @ Cleve (28)
11- Parker @ KC (30), Benson @ Oak (31)
12- Benson vs. Cleve (28)
13- Parker vs. Oak (31), Benson vs. Det (32), McG @ GB (26)
14- Parker @ Cleve (28), McG vs. Det (32)
15- Parker vs. GB (26)
16- Benson vs. KC (30)

So every week but one, at least one of these guys gets one of the 7 worst run defenses from last year. I know defenses are hard to predict, but I can't see anyone but Green Bay being any better. Plus, there are also a lot of games against Cincy, who could also be weak.

I'm not thrilled with the players I believe won't be kept in the RB2 range, and could surely get Parker, Benson, and McGahee for less than a combination of 2 or the available guys ranked between 15 and 30 (Lynch and Wells, McFadden and LJ, etc).

So I would have Forte and a guy playing a team who can't defend the run basically each week while spending less $ on RB and therefore, more on WR.

Obviously, these three aren't guarantees. There are reasons why none are ranked in the top 25 RB. I would have to pursue Mendenhall as well, but he's a guy I plan on targeting anyway as a possible strong keeper for 2010. I'd probably also need to save $1 for Bernard Scott at the end of the night (Ray Rice probably won't be available).

If McGahee looks like he won't be the starter in Baltimore by the end of August, then this plan is garbage. But I believe he'll end up the guy in that offense.

So please let me know if this idea has any value.
Last edited by 011472 on Wed Jul 15, 2009 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby portisfan24 » Wed Jul 15, 2009 4:47 pm

Interesting strategy. I can't really trust any of those guys as a strong number two, but as you have pointed out you can get a favourable matchup essentially every week. Plus you have pretty solid depth. I'd go for it if you can get all those guys at a reasonable price.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby steelerfan513 » Wed Jul 15, 2009 8:15 pm

I'll just quote some classic American literature:

"The best laid plans of fantasy football owners, mice and men always get at least partially f***ed up."

At least I think that's how it went. :-b

Point being, this looks like a grand plan now, but there are so many things that could go wrong with any one of these backs that the odds of something NOT going wrong with your plan are pretty high. Benson could lose his starting job, McGahee could get mired in an RBBC again, any one of them could get injured, Mendenhall could slowly siphon goal line carries from Parker as the season progresses, Pittsburgh's offensive line could still completely suck and make running in at the goal line difficult for everyone, any one of those defenses could suddenly become decent, and it's still possible for these guys to underperform against bad defenses.

It's very impressive that you noticed that something like this is even possible, but there's no way it will play out how you want it to.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby Azrael » Wed Jul 15, 2009 9:31 pm

Great eye to come up with that. Willie Parker just got more attractive to me with 7 good matchups in 11 weeks.

I wouldn't base drafting those guys on that philosophy. If I had to pick 1 based on your idea I'd go with Parker. If I had to pick 2 I'd pick Parker and McGahee because he's very cheap.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby moose_ffc » Wed Jul 15, 2009 9:55 pm

That isn't half bad. I like it because it is an auction. If I had more bench space in my auction league, I would consider it. I like the other guys in all 3 of those positional battles more, but for your strategy, those are the guys I would look to. This strategy will eat up a lot of roster space, so you had better make sure you really know where you are putting the money you are saving. Good luck. I would love to hear how this turns out!
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby dgan » Wed Jul 15, 2009 11:27 pm

Part of me says, "why didn't I think of that?" The other part of me says, "because I don't want to deal with THAT!"

The real problem I see with this is that there is little upside to any of those backs. The chances are fairly good that about 6 weeks in, 2 of the 3 will be entirely unusable. The chances of one of those backs having a breakout season and playing full time in your lineup is almost nil.

Matchup evaluations are better used for spelling a bye week or an injury. I don't think planning to use FWP in Wk 9 is a comfortable feeling. I like the idea...I'm just thinking those RBs are $1 or $2 for a reason. You'd probably have to buy 5 RBs of that type to put the odds in your favor.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby My team is injured » Thu Jul 16, 2009 11:11 am

I agree with steelerfan. I don't know how auction leagues work, but I assume you know you'll be able to draft those guys (ie. multiple owners can have players like mcgahee or parker on their rosters). If not, then that's just another variable to make this plan less attractive.

It is impressive that you noticed all this, but I think it's unlikely to pan out as successfully as you might anticipate. You'd also likely be passing up better value in your rankings simply to adhere to this plan (ie. passing up a RB-WR combo that would cost $X and you like better than another $X WR+Parker combo).
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby 011472 » Fri Jul 17, 2009 8:35 am

My team is injured wrote:I agree with steelerfan. I don't know how auction leagues work, but I assume you know you'll be able to draft those guys (ie. multiple owners can have players like mcgahee or parker on their rosters). If not, then that's just another variable to make this plan less attractive.

It is impressive that you noticed all this, but I think it's unlikely to pan out as successfully as you might anticipate. You'd also likely be passing up better value in your rankings simply to adhere to this plan (ie. passing up a RB-WR combo that would cost $X and you like better than another $X WR+Parker combo).


Only one owner can have each player, but I believe they'd be relatively easy to get- I don't see getting stuck in a bidding war for any of the above.

There's no "passing up" in auctions. Players can be nominated at any time, so if I dedided to do this, I could nominate these guys very early or simply wait for them to be available after everyone else has spent their money on higher ranked RBs.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby dream_017 » Fri Jul 17, 2009 8:51 am

Not exactly the same thing, but I would take a look at this. It is based on SoS, not defensive rankings. I haven't run the numbers, maybe someone else would want to, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that it will be pretty similar. Teams turn things around in a hurry (see exception from linked post ;-) ) so as this is a decent starting point there are many more factors to consider. Teams also do not play the same schedule from year to year - this means that if you play against a running division, then your rushing defense from last year would be inflated and if this year you play a passing division, then the number trying to compare year over year could really be distorted.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby brownsfantasygirl » Fri Jul 17, 2009 9:08 am

Wow, you really did your homework on this! The glaring problem that I see is that you are counting on my Cleveland Browns defense to stink it up again this year. Didn't you hear? We now have Man-genius as our head coach. Watch out, NFL! ;-7
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