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The AFC North theory

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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby dmacblue » Fri Jul 17, 2009 1:20 pm

Nice research.....

i think the theory is solid, id just rather have at it with Rice and Mendenhall (who i think will be > FWP in those sweet games in championship weeks)

Good stuff....thanks for sharing ;-D
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby The Lung » Fri Jul 17, 2009 8:42 pm

dmacblue wrote:i think the theory is solid, id just rather have at it with Rice and Mendenhall (who i think will be > FWP in those sweet games in championship weeks)


Couldn't agree more...The Steelers ran Willie Parker into the ground from 2005-2007 and McGahee's knees are shot.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby 011472 » Sat Jul 18, 2009 3:20 pm

The Lung wrote:
dmacblue wrote:i think the theory is solid, id just rather have at it with Rice and Mendenhall (who i think will be > FWP in those sweet games in championship weeks)


Couldn't agree more...The Steelers ran Willie Parker into the ground from 2005-2007 and McGahee's knees are shot.


That's the problem with the plan, and why these guys will come so cheap. There's no security in Parker, McGahee or Benson. I've planned to buy Mendenhall in as many leagues as I can anyway, and Scott should come cheap, but Rice will probably be kept by his owner from last year, so the plan won't work if McGahee's not looking like a clear starter by the end of August.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby joejlitz » Sun Jul 19, 2009 7:55 am

The Lung wrote:
dmacblue wrote:i think the theory is solid, id just rather have at it with Rice and Mendenhall (who i think will be > FWP in those sweet games in championship weeks)


Couldn't agree more...The Steelers ran Willie Parker into the ground from 2005-2007 and McGahee's knees are shot.

Not to hijack the thread, but Mendenhall still has to prove three things, IMO:
1) He's better than FWP
2) He can hold on to the ball
3) He's not injury prone

I'll draft Parker cheaply because I like his upside, but I'll only grab Mendenhall if he falls to me and that probably won't happen.

As for your theory on drafting those 3 guys, I agree with an earlier poster (Dgan?) that I just don't want to have to deal with that mess and also with the other guy who said by Week 6, 2 out of 3 of the may not be fantasy relevant anymore (and there goes your plan down the toilet and you're wishing you grabed CJ4.24 or someone else to pair with Forte). Good luck! ;-D
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby 011472 » Sun Jul 19, 2009 10:38 am

joejlitz wrote:
As for your theory on drafting those 3 guys, I agree with an earlier poster (Dgan?) that I just don't want to have to deal with that mess and also with the other guy who said by Week 6, 2 out of 3 of the may not be fantasy relevant anymore (and there goes your plan down the toilet and you're wishing you grabed CJ4.24 or someone else to pair with Forte). Good luck! ;-D


That's the problem. CJ won't be available. i won't know for sure for a couple more weeks, but I'm working on the assumption that the great majority of the preferred backs won't be there. I don't want to turn this into a thread that belongs in another forum, but I'd say that LT will be the only RB1 who's not kept, and then Grant, McFadden, Bush, LJ and the rookies are the only other probable available options before I get to the AFC North guys.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby stomperrob » Mon Jul 20, 2009 6:41 pm

The Lung wrote:
dmacblue wrote:i think the theory is solid, id just rather have at it with Rice and Mendenhall (who i think will be > FWP in those sweet games in championship weeks)


Couldn't agree more...The Steelers ran Willie Parker into the ground from 2005-2007 and McGahee's knees are shot.


Agree on both counts. Parkers ypc has fallen steadily the past 3 seasons - Mendenhall is in a prime position this season to start becoming a major contributor.
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Re: The AFC North theory

Postby DraftDodger » Fri Jul 24, 2009 4:26 pm

I remember when the KFFL site used to have a big boner for Quarterback by Committee (QBBC). They identified that for several years in a row, there were QBs that could have been picked up in the late rounds of drafts and rotated against poor pass defenses for incredible fantasy points. Naturally, they put the theory to the test. The results, as I recall, were lukewarm at best. The problem wasn't even always with the late-round QBs themselves, it was in the theory which didn't hold up so well without the benefit of hindsight. One of their guys, Kitna maybe, had a huge season, but their strategy had him on the bench in like 2/3 of the games. Then there were the guys who just forgot they were playing against the #1 fantasy defense and threw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. And some other guys proved why they weren't fantasy starters, coming up with 1 or 2 fantasy points against the weakest (on paper) fantasy defenses because of fumbles and crap. And as someone else pointed out here, it's not only the superstars who get injured.

I'd say try your theory out in some throw-away fantasy teams on Yahoo or wherever, but just try to draft the best players possible in your "real" drafts.

Good catch on your part at any rate.
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