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A Long Run on WRs

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A Long Run on WRs

Postby dgan » Wed Jul 15, 2009 11:48 pm

I always find something that strikes me as unique when I'm plodding through my projections. I'm sitting here for hours on end hacking at my calculator trying to put numbers on WRs. Then I sort my Excel spreadsheet by points, and see what is to be seen. And this year, I think there is something important to notice with WRs. (Not talking PPR here...)

Obviously, everyone has different opinions, but I think a majority of people have their top 5 - 6 WRs pretty closely bunched. We all have our favorite, but when it comes down to it, I think most of us would feel we're getting good value if we waited one more round and got the 4th WR on our list instead of the 1st. Aside from Randy Moss, none of the other top 5 WRs have QB situations that make you sleep well at night. So one seems just as likely to suffer from bad luck as the next. Then there is a slight but definite drop to tier 2 WRs which run about 10 deep.

But, you get about 15 WRs in and there is a HUGE dropoff. Guys like Holmes, Bryant, Housh, and Berrian - you just absolutely don't want those to be core components of your weekly lineup. At least, I don't.

So I think there is a good chance you will see those top WRs and certainly those 2nd tier WRs slipping as people wait for good value, and then see a big run because people don't want to get stuck with the leftovers. You could see 10 WRs go in 12 picks in some leagues.

I know there are always runs on positions, but typically not that long and typically not at WR. Not in my league, anyway.

Well, I thought that was interesting...now I'll start pondering whether I should zag while others zig or whether I should just resign myself to follow the run with everyone else...
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Re: A Long Run on WRs

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jul 15, 2009 11:59 pm

It seems to me that things are tending to go where the first round is obviously RB heavy...the 2nd round tends to be split between RBs and WRs and then rounds 3 and 4 are much heavier WR wise and it shifts back to RBs for a round or two after that. I think the best situation you can be in there is to be the one that really starts those runs because it means you get a top flight guy that you like and you won't miss out on the other positions you might want either.

I'm curious though as to why you have Housh grouped with guys like Holmes, Bryant and Berrian...I think he's got A LOT more value than those guys and will be more successful this season as well. He's in an offense that suits his skills as a WR perfectly and he's got an above average QB in Matt Hasselbeck throwing him the ball without a ton of competition for looks in the passing game. I don't think he'll be top 5 or anything like that but to put him in the same category as guys like Berrian, Holmes, and Bryant is a bit of a stretch I think....especially in PPR leagues.
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Re: A Long Run on WRs

Postby Azrael » Thu Jul 16, 2009 12:16 pm

I noticed this immediately this when when I was ranking my WRs. Right after say Edwards, Ocho Cinco, Anthony Gonzalez you start getting into a roll of the dice group of guys. I want 2 of those guys in the top 15 or so.

All things being equal Housh is probably right there with those guys but I bump him down a little because Hasselbeck now has a back problem. Back problems don't just go away. You could easily be 3 or 4 weeks in and Seneca Wallace is running the show again.
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Re: A Long Run on WRs

Postby dgan » Thu Jul 16, 2009 1:53 pm

mattb47 wrote:I'm curious though as to why you have Housh grouped with guys like Holmes, Bryant and Berrian...I think he's got A LOT more value than those guys and will be more successful this season as well. He's in an offense that suits his skills as a WR perfectly and he's got an above average QB in Matt Hasselbeck throwing him the ball without a ton of competition for looks in the passing game. I don't think he'll be top 5 or anything like that but to put him in the same category as guys like Berrian, Holmes, and Bryant is a bit of a stretch I think....especially in PPR leagues.


I think Housh has a lot more talent than the others, but he's not in a great situation. Hasselbeck may have a chronic back problem, and Seneca Wallace just isn't an average QB. Plus, Holmgren is gone. This offense should feature the run more (albeit w/Julius Jones and TJ Duckett), especially in the red zone. And it isn't like Housh is the only pass catcher on the team that they need to force-feed him - Carlson is a quality option, and it doesn't look like they'll cut Branch. I just don't think Housh will see more than 80 balls and a handful of TDs. #2 WRs changing teams don't have a great track record anyway.

Evaluating a team with a new coaching staff is tricky business, though, so I could be totally wrong. I would just rather be cautious with Housh and let someone else take a shot with him.
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Re: A Long Run on WRs

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jul 16, 2009 2:07 pm

Azrael wrote:I noticed this immediately this when when I was ranking my WRs. Right after say Edwards, Ocho Cinco, Anthony Gonzalez you start getting into a roll of the dice group of guys. I want 2 of those guys in the top 15 or so.

All things being equal Housh is probably right there with those guys but I bump him down a little because Hasselbeck now has a back problem. Back problems don't just go away. You could easily be 3 or 4 weeks in and Seneca Wallace is running the show again.


Hasselbeck's back issue:

http://www.seahawks.com/team/articles/a ... d8f36412f1
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Re: A Long Run on WRs

Postby Azrael » Thu Jul 16, 2009 4:28 pm

We'll see when he's not wearing that red jersey. He got sacked 19 times in 7 games last year. The only guy different on the line is Max Unger instead of Womack. I never heard of a bulging disc just going away. I guess it could feel better with rest but when he starts getting pounded on we'll see. Until then it's just coachspeak to me.
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Re: A Long Run on WRs

Postby mattb47 » Thu Jul 16, 2009 6:40 pm

dgan wrote:
mattb47 wrote:I'm curious though as to why you have Housh grouped with guys like Holmes, Bryant and Berrian...I think he's got A LOT more value than those guys and will be more successful this season as well. He's in an offense that suits his skills as a WR perfectly and he's got an above average QB in Matt Hasselbeck throwing him the ball without a ton of competition for looks in the passing game. I don't think he'll be top 5 or anything like that but to put him in the same category as guys like Berrian, Holmes, and Bryant is a bit of a stretch I think....especially in PPR leagues.


I think Housh has a lot more talent than the others, but he's not in a great situation. Hasselbeck may have a chronic back problem, and Seneca Wallace just isn't an average QB. Plus, Holmgren is gone. This offense should feature the run more (albeit w/Julius Jones and TJ Duckett), especially in the red zone. And it isn't like Housh is the only pass catcher on the team that they need to force-feed him - Carlson is a quality option, and it doesn't look like they'll cut Branch. I just don't think Housh will see more than 80 balls and a handful of TDs. #2 WRs changing teams don't have a great track record anyway.

Evaluating a team with a new coaching staff is tricky business, though, so I could be totally wrong. I would just rather be cautious with Housh and let someone else take a shot with him.


Once again...he is now in an offense that absolutely perfectly fits his skills as a WR. If there's one thing he'll probably have plenty of it's receptions just because of the style of offense he's in...he's going to be looked to in the redzone plenty and Hasselbeck has recovered great from his back injury from last season.

If you think he was the #2 and not the #1 for Cincy the past few years...you're kidding yourself...he was the best WR on that team for years now.

We'll see when he's not wearing that red jersey. He got sacked 19 times in 7 games last year. The only guy different on the line is Max Unger instead of Womack. I never heard of a bulging disc just going away. I guess it could feel better with rest but when he starts getting pounded on we'll see. Until then it's just coachspeak to me.


The only different guy from the line might be Unger...but it does make a difference when EVERY SINGLE starting offensive lineman they had went down last season. There's a reason why they struggled so much last season and it wasn't just Hass going down...they had injuries along the O-Line all season and they have everyone back and have added Unger to the interior line.
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Re: A Long Run on WRs

Postby justinj312 » Fri Jul 17, 2009 4:49 am

I agree he was borderline WR1 for Cincy for a couple of years...

but I don't think the SEA's offense will be as good as CIN's was back then, and I think Housh's numbers will go drop. Plus Carlson is a red zone threat.
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Re: A Long Run on WRs

Postby mattb47 » Fri Jul 17, 2009 8:43 am

justinj312 wrote:I agree he was borderline WR1 for Cincy for a couple of years...

but I don't think the SEA's offense will be as good as CIN's was back then, and I think Housh's numbers will go drop. Plus Carlson is a red zone threat.


Well...the thing is that it doesn't matter if Seattle's offense is "as good" as Cincy's was back then...this system is a better fit for Housh as a whole and they'll work to use him more in the offense than Cincy did which makes up for anything like that. Carlson might get some redzone looks but it's not going to be enough to completely keep him out of the endzone on a regular basis.
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Re: A Long Run on WRs

Postby dupree » Fri Jul 17, 2009 10:24 am

Interesting discussion but you guys should change the subject line.... :-D
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