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Michael Turner and 370 carries

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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby benb18a » Tue Jul 21, 2009 7:04 pm

All you can really hope for, is a top 10 season by a first rounder anyway. We've all seen the consensus 1st, 2nd and 3rd overall backs have complete bust seasons, and many first rounders bust every season, so the way I see it, as long as he remains healthy, there is an infinitesimal possibility of him not putting up top ten numbers, and they will realistically be somewhere around 1350/13 for 16 games, regardless of the Falcons' success, since he is the clear feature back on a run-first team. With his almost negligible career workload coming into 2008, I would say he has less injury risk than a lot of first rounders.
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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:35 pm

Timbathia wrote:I also think Turner is a bit over-rated where his current ADP is, but also agree though that he is no more an injury risk than most other RBs.

However, I dont think the lack of receptions is that big a deal as long as the Falcons win minimum 8 games (which they should). Backs that dont get many receptions (like Jamal Lewis and Rudi Johnson) can still put up very successful years as long as their teams have winning seasons. I am not about to go data searching to show this, but it is logical that as long as the team is winning, protecting leads, staying close in games, then there will be carries, yards and TDs around for the work-horse back. The cushion guys like LT get from having good reception totals are more important when they are on losing teams, as they keep getting yards even when behind on the score board (though admittedly receptions are nice on winning teams too). Turner may not get 17 TDs again this year, but if you think that the Falcons will win 10 games this season then his floor has to be about 12 and 1300 yards (which Rudi got three years running on a winning Bengals team). These numbers put Turner in the top 10 running backs last year, so assuming that holds this season then using your first pick on a guy who if healthy will have a floor in the top ten is not a terrible idea.


You are severely underestimating how poor his reception totals are though...the guys you're talking about (while not big reception guys) dwarf Turner when it comes to catching passes. In no season when Jamal Lewis played in more than 12 games did he have fewer receptions in a season than Turner has had in his CAREER. In Rudi's 3 years as a starter, he had 61 receptions in 3 seasons...that's compared to Turner's 6 last season and 11 in his previous 4 seasons combined. That's a MAJOR liability when we're talking PPR leagues where the difference between even 25 receptions and 5 receptions can be a big difference for where they finish the season.

It's no surprise that even in non-PPR leagues, only 2 players in the past 4 seasons have finished in the top 10 without catching at least 20 passes. Those two were Turner last season and Shaun Alexander in 2005 when he had is then record breaking year of 27 TDs. Other than that it just doesn't happen because it's a lot to make up for when you get nothing in the receiving column on a weekly basis.
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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby Timbathia » Tue Jul 21, 2009 11:20 pm

mattb47 wrote:
Timbathia wrote:I also think Turner is a bit over-rated where his current ADP is, but also agree though that he is no more an injury risk than most other RBs.

However, I dont think the lack of receptions is that big a deal as long as the Falcons win minimum 8 games (which they should). Backs that dont get many receptions (like Jamal Lewis and Rudi Johnson) can still put up very successful years as long as their teams have winning seasons. I am not about to go data searching to show this, but it is logical that as long as the team is winning, protecting leads, staying close in games, then there will be carries, yards and TDs around for the work-horse back. The cushion guys like LT get from having good reception totals are more important when they are on losing teams, as they keep getting yards even when behind on the score board (though admittedly receptions are nice on winning teams too). Turner may not get 17 TDs again this year, but if you think that the Falcons will win 10 games this season then his floor has to be about 12 and 1300 yards (which Rudi got three years running on a winning Bengals team). These numbers put Turner in the top 10 running backs last year, so assuming that holds this season then using your first pick on a guy who if healthy will have a floor in the top ten is not a terrible idea.


You are severely underestimating how poor his reception totals are though...the guys you're talking about (while not big reception guys) dwarf Turner when it comes to catching passes. In no season when Jamal Lewis played in more than 12 games did he have fewer receptions in a season than Turner has had in his CAREER. In Rudi's 3 years as a starter, he had 61 receptions in 3 seasons...that's compared to Turner's 6 last season and 11 in his previous 4 seasons combined. That's a MAJOR liability when we're talking PPR leagues where the difference between even 25 receptions and 5 receptions can be a big difference for where they finish the season.

It's no surprise that even in non-PPR leagues, only 2 players in the past 4 seasons have finished in the top 10 without catching at least 20 passes. Those two were Turner last season and Shaun Alexander in 2005 when he had is then record breaking year of 27 TDs. Other than that it just doesn't happen because it's a lot to make up for when you get nothing in the receiving column on a weekly basis.


I thought you were just talking about the benefit to yardage totals from receiving, not ppr. With points per reception for running backs, then yes, Turner is in a big hole, but i dont think it is as bad as you are making out.

While you mention only 2 guys in 4 seasons that caught less that 20 passes who made it to top ten, part of that reason is that there are almost no RBs that actually catch less than 20 passes per year. Last year Jacobs, LenDale and JStew were the only FFL startable RBs that had less, and they were all in committees. Turner had over 150 more carries than any of those non-pass catching RBs. Only 5 RBs last year had over 300 carries. The days of the workhorse 300 + carry RB is numbered, but Turner will get that again this year. What he lacks in receptions compared to most backs, he almost doubles in extra carries (even if they drop this year). In a non-ppr league, that is effectively a wash in terms of yardage value. This means that it comes down to TD totals, which brings me back to my point about playing on a winning team. If Atlanta win 10 games, then IMO, Turner gets his touches and his TDs, making him a lock for top 10 numbers, and a reasonable possibility for higher.

In a ppr-league he is unlikely to be top 5 material, but non-ppr it is entirely possible.
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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:01 pm

See...you're missing the point though...the point is that because he doesn't get those receptions...he HAS to get that many more carries and be VERY productive with each one or he won't be able to make up the difference. It makes a big difference in both PPR and non-PPR leagues because if you're only getting 6 receptions as compared to even 25...that's likely a difference of at least 150 yards and most of the other top 5 candidates catch many more passes than that even. Yes, there aren't many backs that don't catch a lot of passes but that doesn't change the fact that backs who don't catch passes rarely finish highly fantasy wise.

I think he is VERY unlikely to be top 5 this year...and I think he could struggle to be top 10 as well. Even if he's on a "winning" team, that doesn't guarantee him getting 15+ TDs (which he HAS to do to be top 5) and the addition of a great redzone threat at TE in Gonzalez is just another guy who could factor in. I've also heard that they do want to get Norwood more involved this season and that Turner's carry total will be dropping significantly from last season...I wouldn't be surprised to see him over 300 again, but that's probably not going to be enough to put him into the top 5.
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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:10 pm

mattb47 wrote:See...you're missing the point though...the point is that because he doesn't get those receptions...he HAS to get that many more carries and be VERY productive with each one or he won't be able to make up the difference. It makes a big difference in both PPR and non-PPR leagues because if you're only getting 6 receptions as compared to even 25...that's likely a difference of at least 150 yards and most of the other top 5 candidates catch many more passes than that even. Yes, there aren't many backs that don't catch a lot of passes but that doesn't change the fact that backs who don't catch passes rarely finish highly fantasy wise.

I think he is VERY unlikely to be top 5 this year...and I think he could struggle to be top 10 as well. Even if he's on a "winning" team, that doesn't guarantee him getting 15+ TDs (which he HAS to do to be top 5) and the addition of a great redzone threat at TE in Gonzalez is just another guy who could factor in. I've also heard that they do want to get Norwood more involved this season and that Turner's carry total will be dropping significantly from last season...I wouldn't be surprised to see him over 300 again, but that's probably not going to be enough to put him into the top 5.


Top10 is usually somewhere around 1500/10 combined. I think Turner is a fairly safe bet to get up around those point totals. Michael Turner had that many points on less than 300 carries last year. At 300 carries, Turner was at 1400 yards and 14 TDs last year. I think Turner has some pretty damn good TD upside when you consider his style of running (100% goalline RB + big play speed). I think 15 TDs are well within his reach, the high yardage totals are what are in question IMO.
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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:25 pm

That's what I'm saying though...unless he reaches pretty much his upside, he's not close to the top 5 and he's getting back into the top 10. I don't think that he's going to necessarily be quite as good and play up to that upside there and so I don't think that the yardage will necessarily be up there nor the TDs. I'm not saying he won't be a solid RB this year...but for where he's drafted he's unlikely to reach those kinds of numbers.
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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby Timbathia » Wed Jul 22, 2009 5:46 pm

mattb47 wrote:See...you're missing the point though...the point is that because he doesn't get those receptions...he HAS to get that many more carries and be VERY productive with each one or he won't be able to make up the difference. It makes a big difference in both PPR and non-PPR leagues because if you're only getting 6 receptions as compared to even 25...that's likely a difference of at least 150 yards and most of the other top 5 candidates catch many more passes than that even. Yes, there aren't many backs that don't catch a lot of passes but that doesn't change the fact that backs who don't catch passes rarely finish highly fantasy wise.

I think he is VERY unlikely to be top 5 this year...and I think he could struggle to be top 10 as well. Even if he's on a "winning" team, that doesn't guarantee him getting 15+ TDs (which he HAS to do to be top 5) and the addition of a great redzone threat at TE in Gonzalez is just another guy who could factor in. I've also heard that they do want to get Norwood more involved this season and that Turner's carry total will be dropping significantly from last season...I wouldn't be surprised to see him over 300 again, but that's probably not going to be enough to put him into the top 5.


I am not sure how I am missing the point. I have agreed he is probably over-valued in the top 5, for the reasons you have said. I am just pointing out, however, that for a guy that doesnt get receptions, he is a better chance than you are giving him credit for to reach his upside. If he dosent make the top 5, then his floor if healthy is still pretty darn good, which is a major plus for a high first round pick.

He will be top 5 in carries, Atlanta have the offensive weapons to get him into scoring positions, they have enough passing options to ensure the box isnt stacked, and they should be competitive in most games meaning he wont get hooked late because they are throwing a ton to try and recover from a huge deficit. Even if he gets 50 less carries than last year, 15 TDs is not some incredibly hard to reach target.
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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jul 22, 2009 10:35 pm

I think that you're overestimating his "floor" for this season...a guy with little cushion in the receiving game has a lower floor by default because if he gets 50 less carries or even fewer it really takes a BIG hit to his overall numbers that he won't be able to make up for in any other way. It's quite obvious that the receiving back for the Falcons is Norwood and if they do indeed plan on getting him the ball more next year, I think that we could see Turner in the very low 300's for carries as I think they'll both run the ball less overall and give him a smaller percentage of the overall touches.

I actually have him not in the top 5 in carries next year as I don't think he'll get as many and without those numbers for just an overwhelming amount of carries, the chances of him putting up elite numbers drops significantly. So...you think that it will be easy for him to reach 15 TDs with closer to 310-315 or so carries when he only reached 17 TDs with 377 carries? I think it's possible but I don't know that it's even necessarily likely for him to accomplish that. And the issue I have is that he MUST get very high TD numbers to be worth taking even in the mid first round.

I personally think that my best guess is going to be about 1400 total yards and 13-15 TDs...that puts him in the 218-230 FP range which would have put him outside of the top 10 even with 15 TDs this past season. He could end up higher than that but that's what I'm leaning towards at the moment. And that's 310 carries at 4.5 ypc or 320 carries at about 4.4 ypc which is not crazy to think about.
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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby TheMaizeAndBlue » Wed Jul 22, 2009 11:16 pm

mattb47 wrote:I think that you're overestimating his "floor" for this season...a guy with little cushion in the receiving game has a lower floor by default because if he gets 50 less carries or even fewer it really takes a BIG hit to his overall numbers that he won't be able to make up for in any other way. It's quite obvious that the receiving back for the Falcons is Norwood and if they do indeed plan on getting him the ball more next year, I think that we could see Turner in the very low 300's for carries as I think they'll both run the ball less overall and give him a smaller percentage of the overall touches.

I actually have him not in the top 5 in carries next year as I don't think he'll get as many and without those numbers for just an overwhelming amount of carries, the chances of him putting up elite numbers drops significantly. So...you think that it will be easy for him to reach 15 TDs with closer to 310-315 or so carries when he only reached 17 TDs with 377 carries? I think it's possible but I don't know that it's even necessarily likely for him to accomplish that. And the issue I have is that he MUST get very high TD numbers to be worth taking even in the mid first round.

I personally think that my best guess is going to be about 1400 total yards and 13-15 TDs...that puts him in the 218-230 FP range which would have put him outside of the top 10 even with 15 TDs this past season. He could end up higher than that but that's what I'm leaning towards at the moment. And that's 310 carries at 4.5 ypc or 320 carries at about 4.4 ypc which is not crazy to think about.


I'd be curious to know where you have Turner ranked and who you have ahead of him. Based on those numbers, it seems that for you at least, Turner is a late first rounder at best.

I personally have him 4th after ADP, MJD and Matt Forte, although it's mainly by default because the players I have ranked after him have even bigger question marks. S Jax always has health issues, Johnson shares carries and isn't the goal line back, Slaton is really small and his coach has said that he would like a bigger back to help carry the load, LT will be over 30, Deangelo is in a committee (although it's on a very run heavy team).

Personally, if I have that 4th pick and Turner is left, I think I'm taking him simply because he's a better bet than the rest of those guys.
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Re: Michael Turner and 370 carries

Postby smackthefirst » Wed Jul 22, 2009 11:30 pm

I personally have Turner at (gasp) 12th in my RB rankings for this year in a PPR setup. And mind you this is with Turner projected to get 1450 yards and 13 TDs but the lack of receptions pushes him down quickly as I have him as the 5th RB in non-PPR. Ahead of him in PPR I have the following:

MJD
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SJax
LT
Forte
Slaton
Gore
CJohnson
DWilliams
Portis
RBrown
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