Michael Turner and 370 carries

[Timbathia]

I personally think that my best guess is going to be about 1400 total yards and 13-15 TDs...that puts him in the 218-230 FP range which would have put him outside of the top 10 even with 15 TDs this past season. He could end up higher than that but that's what I'm leaning towards at the moment. And that's 310 carries at 4.5 ypc or 320 carries at about 4.4 ypc which is not crazy to think about.

There were only 11 guys including Turner that got over 1400 total yards last season, and 2 of them only just. Only 5 of those guys including Turner had 13 or more TDs (2 others had 15 TDs, but significantly less yards).

So in a non-ppr, how on earth does Turner end up outside the top 10 with 1400 and 13-15 unless you are predicting RBs as a group to put up much higher numbers (in an era where more teams are transitioning towards RBBCs)?

and based on it being VERY likely Turner cracks 300 carries this year, and based on the fact only 5 guys did that last season, who do you have getting more carries than him this year for him not to be in the top 5?

1500 and 15 should get you into the top 5 in a non-ppr league, and that is attainable, though admittedly not easy, for Turner.

[Kensat30]

That's what I'm saying though...unless he reaches pretty much his upside, he's not close to the top 5 and he's getting back into the top 10. I don't think that he's going to necessarily be quite as good and play up to that upside there and so I don't think that the yardage will necessarily be up there nor the TDs. I'm not saying he won't be a solid RB this year...but for where he's drafted he's unlikely to reach those kinds of numbers.

15 TDs will land a guy in the top5 most of the time. I don't see how 15 is the upside either. Sure the guy had 17 on 370 carries last year, but then again he was also operating in a vanilla system run by a rookie QB. If we're talking real upside, we might as well start discussing 2000/20. The last guy to run for 2000 was a similar body type in Jamal Lewis, and Micheal Turner does have multiple 200 yard games under his belt and lots more 100 yard efforts. A little improvement in the system could give Turner more bang for buck TD wise. This guy could potentially score the same with less touches and a lot more with a similar amount of touches. More points in 2009 than 2008 is probably not a likely outcome, but to discuss 15 TDs as his upside is not being accurate IMO. Even a marginally talented guy like Rudi Johnson in a good system was a solid bet for 1500/12 TDs every year. What happens for Turner if Matt Ryan develops like many of us expect him to?

[mattb47]

I personally think that my best guess is going to be about 1400 total yards and 13-15 TDs...that puts him in the 218-230 FP range which would have put him outside of the top 10 even with 15 TDs this past season. He could end up higher than that but that's what I'm leaning towards at the moment. And that's 310 carries at 4.5 ypc or 320 carries at about 4.4 ypc which is not crazy to think about.

There were only 11 guys including Turner that got over 1400 total yards last season, and 2 of them only just. Only 5 of those guys including Turner had 13 or more TDs (2 others had 15 TDs, but significantly less yards).

So in a non-ppr, how on earth does Turner end up outside the top 10 with 1400 and 13-15 unless you are predicting RBs as a group to put up much higher numbers (in an era where more teams are transitioning towards RBBCs)?

and based on it being VERY likely Turner cracks 300 carries this year, and based on the fact only 5 guys did that last season, who do you have getting more carries than him this year for him not to be in the top 5?

1500 and 15 should get you into the top 5 in a non-ppr league, and that is attainable, though admittedly not easy, for Turner.

What are you talking about? I said last season if he puts up the numbers I said (1400 and 13-15), he would have been outside the top 10 in fantasy points. That's all I was saying...

15 TDs will land a guy in the top5 most of the time. I don't see how 15 is the upside either. Sure the guy had 17 on 370 carries last year, but then again he was also operating in a vanilla system run by a rookie QB. If we're talking real upside, we might as well start discussing 2000/20. The last guy to run for 2000 was a similar body type in Jamal Lewis, and Micheal Turner does have multiple 200 yard games under his belt and lots more 100 yard efforts. A little improvement in the system could give Turner more bang for buck TD wise. This guy could potentially score the same with less touches and a lot more with a similar amount of touches. More points in 2009 than 2008 is probably not a likely outcome, but to discuss 15 TDs as his upside is not being accurate IMO. Even a marginally talented guy like Rudi Johnson in a good system was a solid bet for 1500/12 TDs every year. What happens for Turner if Matt Ryan develops like many of us expect him to?

See...I view the way they ran the offense last season as a negative thing for this upcoming year for Turner rather than a positive thing. Last season it was quite obvious that they were trying to ease Ryan into the role by using Turner A LOT in every situation and the result was a huge amount of carries and not a ton of attempts for Ryan. I expect them to really open up the passing more this season along with getting the explosive Norwood more involved which will result in much fewer carries for Turner this year. 2000/20 is out of the question personally...I simply don't think he'll get the carries this year even if he's running great to approach those numbers.

My whole point is based on the idea that because of the FACT that Turner is not a good receiving back and has never been involved in the passing game for either team he has been on, his upside is limited and his floor is somewhat lower than other guys who are used significantly in both. The cushion of being a guy who gets an additional 250-300 yards receiving or something is really nice because they get their production in 2 different ways...the way things stand now is that if Turner doesn't get a ton of carries and is very productive with them including scoring TDs like he was last year, he doesn't land at year's end in the area that he's being drafted. A guy like LT can have a very down year for him and only have 1110 yards rushing and still manage to be top 5 in a lot of formats because of his receiving numbers. Turner doesn't have that luxury.

[Timbathia]

I personally think that my best guess is going to be about 1400 total yards and 13-15 TDs...that puts him in the 218-230 FP range which would have put him outside of the top 10 even with 15 TDs this past season. He could end up higher than that but that's what I'm leaning towards at the moment. And that's 310 carries at 4.5 ypc or 320 carries at about 4.4 ypc which is not crazy to think about.

There were only 11 guys including Turner that got over 1400 total yards last season, and 2 of them only just. Only 5 of those guys including Turner had 13 or more TDs (2 others had 15 TDs, but significantly less yards).

So in a non-ppr, how on earth does Turner end up outside the top 10 with 1400 and 13-15 unless you are predicting RBs as a group to put up much higher numbers (in an era where more teams are transitioning towards RBBCs)?

and based on it being VERY likely Turner cracks 300 carries this year, and based on the fact only 5 guys did that last season, who do you have getting more carries than him this year for him not to be in the top 5?

1500 and 15 should get you into the top 5 in a non-ppr league, and that is attainable, though admittedly not easy, for Turner.

What are you talking about? I said last season if he puts up the numbers I said (1400 and 13-15), he would have been outside the top 10 in fantasy points. That's all I was saying...

Maybe I am running the numbers wrong, because 1400 and 15 does get you into the top 10 RBs last year in a non-ppr from where I sit, and there are only a couple of guys that were significantly above that - Turner being one of them.

[TheMaizeAndBlue]

I believe we may be arguing slightly different points. I have Turner at 4th in non-ppr and was formerly under the impression that mattb was arguing that Turner should be 12th in that set up. However, he stated that he has Turner at 5th in a non ppr, which is perfectly reasonable to me. It's ppr where his value drops due to his incredibly low reception totals.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Timbathia and Kensat are arguing Turner's case for non-ppr leagues while mattb is arguing against him as a top 5 RB in ppr leagues.

[chchelse]

Is anyone besides myself concerned that Turner got 828 of his 1699yds and 8 out of his 17 TD's against the 6 worst rush defenses last year? I remember last year the only knock on him were his poor numbers vs tough run defenses, and this appears to be true. This year Atlanta's schedule vs the run is much tougher (fftoolbox has them rated with the 32nd SOS vs the run). I believe this is something that has to be considered. Personally I will not be taking Turner in the top half of the first round (right now I have him as RB7-8) as I am not convinced he is an elite RB, nor that Atlata is an elite offense. Convince me otherwise!

[Dawinner127]

Is anyone besides myself concerned that Turner got 828 of his 1699yds and 8 out of his 17 TD's against the 6 worst rush defenses last year? I remember last year the only knock on him were his poor numbers vs tough run defenses, and this appears to be true. This year Atlanta's schedule vs the run is much tougher (fftoolbox has them rated with the 32nd SOS vs the run). I believe this is something that has to be considered. Personally I will not be taking Turner in the top half of the first round (right now I have him as RB7-8) as I am not convinced he is an elite RB, nor that Atlata is an elite offense. Convince me otherwise!

Makes two of us. I'm not sold on Turner at all.

[telek]

Actually, Adrian Peterson had 383 carries last year. Or don't post-season carries contribute to wear and tear on the body? It seems none of the studies cited earlier even consider this. A RB for a Super Bowl contender may play 3 or 4 more games/weeks per year than a RB whose team fails to make the playoffs. I would think this factor shouldn't be overlooked.

[joejlitz]

Actually, Adrian Peterson had 383 carries last year. Or don't post-season carries contribute to wear and tear on the body? It seems none of the studies cited earlier even consider this. A RB for a Super Bowl contender may play 3 or 4 more games/weeks per year than a RB whose team fails to make the playoffs. I would think this factor shouldn't be overlooked.

New insight. Awesome!

Anyone wanna look this up?

[Kensat30]

Is anyone besides myself concerned that Turner got 828 of his 1699yds and 8 out of his 17 TD's against the 6 worst rush defenses last year? I remember last year the only knock on him were his poor numbers vs tough run defenses, and this appears to be true. This year Atlanta's schedule vs the run is much tougher (fftoolbox has them rated with the 32nd SOS vs the run). I believe this is something that has to be considered. Personally I will not be taking Turner in the top half of the first round (right now I have him as RB7-8) as I am not convinced he is an elite RB, nor that Atlata is an elite offense. Convince me otherwise!

Makes two of us. I'm not sold on Turner at all.

1699 - 828 = 871
17 - 8 = 9

871/9 in 10 games prorates to 1400/14. So if we take out Turner's SIX easiest matchups and only left in the tougher matchups, he was still good enough for 1400/14 last year. 1400/14 is probably enough for RB7 or RB8 in most years and that is without the benefit of the easy matchups. How many RBs are good for 1400/14 in any year if you take away their 6 best games? Not many..

I'm not saying Turner is a lock to repeat 2008, he will almost definitely receive less carries/touches, but then again he is guaranteed at least a few good matchups in 2009 as well. And personally, I am banking on SIGNIFICANT improvement in the Atlanta offense in 2009. Matt Ryan had only 16 TDs last year right? But if you watch the guy play, you saw a potential star in the making. The guy is money on the dep corner, he hits the sideline route before the defense can react or the pass rush can get to him, guys has a beautiful deep ball and he has a WR#1 that can beat the 1v1 matchup with consistency. Add in the best TE to ever play the game and more control at the line of scrimmage... the sky is the limit here folks.

Carson Palmer had only 18 TDs in his first year starting (his 2nd year in the league), and the year after that the guy was MONEY. Roddy White is better than Chad Johnson. Tony Gonzalez is probably still the first or second most valuable TE in the league when it comes to improving the offense. And Michael Turner.. well he only led the league in rushing last year in his first ever opportunity to prove that he had something and in a system featuring a rookie QB. Matt Ryan is getting taken earlier than many people feel comfortable, but I have a strong hunch that the guy is going to outperform even that lofty draft position (~QB8-10) and Michael Turner is going to be the guy that benefits.

The one thing that benefits a RB the most is a strong offense. As guys around the RB gets better and the offense improves the quality of touches the RB receives get better as well. That's the reason why a guy like Rudi Johnson, who also never caught the ball, was a back to back to back top10 RB even with average to below average NFL talent. Turner last year showed us that if you give him the touches, the guy is going to compete for the league title because he is an above average talent. The guy last year by worst case scenario and using a flawed analysis (taking out his biggest games) was still good for 1400/14. Know who else was a good bet for 1400/14 type numbers every year? Shaun Alexander. Is Alexander's career high 28 TDs out of reach for Turner in 2009? Is Alexander 16 or 17 TD career seasonal average out of reach for Turner? All I know is that when Atlanta gets down inside the 5 yard line, Turner is going to get multiple opportunities to punch it in. Turner is the guy who is going to get his number called 9/10 in that situation. And every time Matt Ryan converts a big play or a third down, Turner is that much closer to paydirt.