telek wrote:Actually, Adrian Peterson had 383 carries last year. Or don't post-season carries contribute to wear and tear on the body? It seems none of the studies cited earlier even consider this. A RB for a Super Bowl contender may play 3 or 4 more games/weeks per year than a RB whose team fails to make the playoffs. I would think this factor shouldn't be overlooked.
New insight. Awesome!Anyone wanna look this up?
Alright well...I did some research on this just for the heck of it to see what came of it.
I included players that fell into 2 categories in this research. The first being those who had 370+ carries including the playoffs, the second being those who had 400+ total TOUCHES including the playoffs. I only went back to 2000 because I just didn't feel like doing more than that.
Feel free to read through all I wrote if you want...I talked about each guy and their season following...if not, skip to the bottom where I summarize my findings.2000 SeasonEddie George - 430 total carries, 488 total touches
Eddie will appear on this list twice...interestingly enough, following both seasons of 400+ total touches he had 2 of the worst TD totals of his career the following season. He never really had a great ypc average (3.6 for his career) but following each of his 400+ touch seasons he had his 2 worst ypc averages of his career (3.0 and 3.3).Edgerrin James - 408 total carries, 471 total touches
As many will know well, following his 2000 campaign where he had the most touches of any season in his career, he sustained the knee injury that he may never really fully recovered from. Played just 6 games in the 2001 season, although his ypc stayed the same from 2000 to 2001.2001 Season
None2002 SeasonRicky Williams - 383 total carries, 430 total touches
The 2002 season was easily the most productive of his career with over 1800 rushing yards, over 350 receiving yards and 17 total TDs. While he yet again carried the ball over 300 times the next season (even more than in 2002 with 392), his ypc dropped drastically from 4.8 to 3.5 and dropped to 10 TDs that season despite more touches.LaDainian Tomlinson - 372 total carries, 451 total touches
LT appears on this list 4 times...that in and of itself is amazing considering the trend we're noticing but let's continue. This was LT's second season in the NFL and he is one of the few that not only didn't drop off the next year, he actually improved his numbers from 2002 to 2003 where he averaged 5.3 ypc (up from 4.5) and had more TDs despite fewer carries and overall touches.Eddie George - 373 total carries, 410 total touches
Just as before, his year following this one was one of the worst of his career despite still getting plenty of touches. He was a workhorse, not the most efficient workhorse but nonetheless you can see a definite dip in his production following the 2000 and 2002 seasons.2003 SeasonRicky Williams - 392 total carries, 442 total touches
This is the final season before his infamous retirement from the NFL so we don't really know for sure how he would have fared the following season should he have played again. His stats were markedly down from the season before, however, so it's a safe assumption that they probably wouldn't have improved with yet another very heavy workload.Jamal Lewis - 401 total carries, 427 total touches
Again, quite easily the largest workload of his career in his well known 2000 yard season. He would never really come close to putting up these kinds of numbers ever again though as his ypc dropped an entire yard the following season and his TDs were cut in half with him missing 4 games to injury and failing to even eclipse the 250 carry mark.Ahman Green - 403 total carries, 461 total touches
The 2003 season is the only one in which Green even had over 350 total carries and only 1 of 2 seasons over 300. He had over 2200 total yards and 20 total TDs that season. The following year his ypc average dropped from 5.3 to 4.5, he only recorded 8 TDs and only had 259 carries in 15 games.LaDainian Tomlinson - 313 total carries, 413 total touches
He did have a reduced workload from the season before but 100 receptions put him over the 400 touch mark for the season. His numbers would drop, however, following this season with his 2nd lowest ypc average of his career at 3.9 having him finish with 300 fewer rushing yards. His receptions were also cut in half at just 53. Despite all that he still scored 18 total TDs so it's hard to say that he dropped off too terribly.Deuce McAllister - 351 total carries, 420 total touches
The most productive season of Deuce's career was really also the last truly productive season as a starter he would have. The following season he would miss 2 games, average just 4.0 ypc (down from 4.7), and rush for 600 fewer yards with over 100 fewer touches. He had 1 more TD, but the rest of his numbers were down significantly and he would suffer the knee injury that would essentially end his career as a starter.2004 SeasonCurtis Martin - 408 total carries, 457 total touches
In his largest workload as a RB, he had his best season of his career with nearly 1700 yards rushing, 245 yards receiving, and 14 total TDs. This season, however, would really mark the end of his career productivity wise as he was never the same again. The following season he played in 12 games and had just 220 carries at only 3.3 ypc (down from 4.6) and only 5 TDs. He would never play again after the 2005 season.Corey Dillon - 410 total carries, 434 total touches
His first year in New England was a great one for him. It was the best of his career and it's too bad that his debut on a team that was actually competitive came so late in his career. After over 1600 yards on 4.7 ypc, he would average just 3.5 ypc the following season playing in just 12 games and only starting 10. His TDs remained high however in his final 2 seasons in the league despite the rest of his productivity dropping off significantly.2005 SeasonShaun Alexander - 430 total carries, 448 total touches
The 2005 season was his then record breaking year TD wise where he scored 28 total TDs. Obviously he would drop off from that but the fall was much harder than most could have anticipated. He fell from 5.1 ypc down to 3.6 the following year...playing in just 10 games and only carrying the ball 252 times for less than 900 yards and just 7 TDs. He would never reach 1000 yards or double digit TDs again in his career.Edgerrin James - 373 total carries, 422 total touches
This, his last season in Indianapolis, was really his last year as a true "stud" RB in this league. It's hard to know how much of his dropoff is due to his new situation in Arizona and how much was the 400+ touch workload he had that year but he dropped to just 3.4 ypc from 4.2 and had less than half the TDs he had the previous season. He actually had fewer TDs in 2006 and 2007 combined than he did in 2005. He would proceed to carry the ball over 300 times each of the next 2 seasons though.Tiki Barber - 370 total carries, 427 total touches
This is another one of the few, despite his age, who managed to avoid the dropoff after a big workload. He would average over 5 ypc yet again the following season and his lower TD total is more due to the arrival of Brandon Jacobs than his dropping off production wise. He had another season of over 2000 total yards following this 2005 year.Clinton Portis - 385 total carries, 418 total touches
Portis would get hurt the following season and miss half of the year. There wasn't a significant drop in production (4.1 ypc down from 4.3) and he still had 7 TDs in just 7 starts, but he did miss significant time following the largest total workload of his career.2006 SeasonLarry Johnson - 429 total carries, 475 total touches
LJ has never really been the same since his HUGE workload in the 2006 season...mainly because he's been unable to stay on the field for an entire season. He averaged just 4.3 ypc in this season but that dropped further the following year in the 8 games he did play in to just 3.5 and Johnson only scored 4 TDs in 8 games after 19 in 2006. He hasn't carried the ball a combined 400 times in the 2 seasons he's played since this year.LaDainian Tomlinson - 371 total carries, 429 total touches
Once again, the player that defies all football logic makes his appearance yet again on this list, and yet again the season following this one was not markedly worse than his big touch season (he actually makes another appearance on the 2007 list). This was his record breaking year where he scored 31 total TDs, had over 2300 total yards and averaged 5.2 ypc. The following year those numbers would only drop to 4.7 ypc, 1900 total yards, and 18 TDs.Steven Jackson - 346 total carries, 436 total touches
This was the only season in which Jackson was able to carry the ball over 300 times. Following this year where he played in all 16 games, he hasn't played more than 12 games in a season and has barely eclipsed 1000 yards rushing in both of the subsequent years. There was no noticeable drop in his ypc but his combined TDs in 2007 and 2008 come short of his 2006 numbers.2007 SeasonLaDainian Tomlinson - 345 total carries, 410 total touches
The only entrant in the 2007 season is LT. This is his 4th and final appearance on this list and really the only one in which is production the following year took a sizable dip. His ypc following this season was the worst of his career at just 3.8, his rushing yards was the lowest of his career, as were his total yards, and his TD total was the worst since his rookie season (although he still had 12). Nonetheless, he was still over 1500 total yards and 12 TDs which isn't as hard a fall as most.2008 SeasonAdrian Peterson - 383 total carries, 404 total touches
The first one to see how things affect him this year is ADP. He had a ton of carries last season and had by far his best season of his short career with over 1700 rushing yards at 4.8 ypc and 10 TDs. He's got a great offensive line and is exceptionally talented so chances are if we see a dropoff it will be due to injury which he has shown he can be susceptible to in the past.Michael Turner - 394 total carries, 401 total touches
Turner had nearly 400 carries including the playoffs and it's uncommon to see that for a first year starter. What will happen when we see how things turn out this season coming off a season of over 400 touches which has spelled doom for many players in the past? We'll have to wait and see, it's not crazy to think that he'll have trouble duplicating his season of a year ago but he also has the talent to do it again. We'll have to just wait and see.Analysis
12 Players had at least 370 carries including the playoffs since 2000 (not including last season). Of those players, only 3 times did the player really come back strong the following year (LT in 2002 and 2006, Barber in 2005). All of the other 9 times this happened the player really failed to make the same kind of impact or even close to it that he had done the season before...most times there was a significant dropoff in production or an injury.
4 Players had less than 370 total carries but still had over 400 total touches. Of those players, just LT (2003 and 2007) really made any significant impact the following season.
So ultimately, players not named LaDainian Tomlinson and Tiki Barber have failed to really produce close to what was expected of them in seasons following a workload of 400+ touches since the 2000 season.