Michael Turner and 370 carries

[chchelse]

Is anyone besides myself concerned that Turner got 828 of his 1699yds and 8 out of his 17 TD's against the 6 worst rush defenses last year? I remember last year the only knock on him were his poor numbers vs tough run defenses, and this appears to be true. This year Atlanta's schedule vs the run is much tougher (fftoolbox has them rated with the 32nd SOS vs the run). I believe this is something that has to be considered. Personally I will not be taking Turner in the top half of the first round (right now I have him as RB7-8) as I am not convinced he is an elite RB, nor that Atlata is an elite offense. Convince me otherwise!

Makes two of us. I'm not sold on Turner at all.

1699 - 828 = 871
17 - 8 = 9

871/9 in 10 games prorates to 1400/14. So if we take out Turner's SIX easiest matchups and only left in the tougher matchups, he was still good enough for 1400/14 last year. 1400/14 is probably enough for RB7 or RB8 in most years and that is without the benefit of the easy matchups. How many RBs are good for 1400/14 in any year if you take away their 6 best games? Not many..

I'm not saying Turner is a lock to repeat 2008, he will almost definitely receive less carries/touches, but then again he is guaranteed at least a few good matchups in 2009 as well. And personally, I am banking on SIGNIFICANT improvement in the Atlanta offense in 2009. Matt Ryan had only 16 TDs last year right? But if you watch the guy play, you saw a potential star in the making. The guy is money on the dep corner, he hits the sideline route before the defense can react or the pass rush can get to him, guys has a beautiful deep ball and he has a WR#1 that can beat the 1v1 matchup with consistency. Add in the best TE to ever play the game and more control at the line of scrimmage... the sky is the limit here folks.

Carson Palmer had only 18 TDs in his first year starting (his 2nd year in the league), and the year after that the guy was MONEY. Roddy White is better than Chad Johnson. Tony Gonzalez is probably still the first or second most valuable TE in the league when it comes to improving the offense. And Michael Turner.. well he only led the league in rushing last year in his first ever opportunity to prove that he had something and in a system featuring a rookie QB. Matt Ryan is getting taken earlier than many people feel comfortable, but I have a strong hunch that the guy is going to outperform even that lofty draft position (~QB8-10) and Michael Turner is going to be the guy that benefits.

The one thing that benefits a RB the most is a strong offense. As guys around the RB gets better and the offense improves the quality of touches the RB receives get better as well. That's the reason why a guy like Rudi Johnson, who also never caught the ball, was a back to back to back top10 RB even with average to below average NFL talent. Turner last year showed us that if you give him the touches, the guy is going to compete for the league title because he is an above average talent. The guy last year by worst case scenario and using a flawed analysis (taking out his biggest games) was still good for 1400/14. Know who else was a good bet for 1400/14 type numbers every year? Shaun Alexander. Is Alexander's career high 28 TDs out of reach for Turner in 2009? Is Alexander 16 or 17 TD career seasonal average out of reach for Turner? All I know is that when Atlanta gets down inside the 5 yard line, Turner is going to get multiple opportunities to punch it in. Turner is the guy who is going to get his number called 9/10 in that situation. And every time Matt Ryan converts a big play or a third down, Turner is that much closer to paydirt.

What I'm concerned with is that he faced only 3 tough rush defenses last year: Minnesota, Philadelphia and San Diego, the 29th 30th and 25th toughest run defenses. Against these three teams he combined for 248 yds and 1 TD. That averages out to 1310yds and 5 TD's over the year. Just as it is not fair to throw out the 6 easiest teams, it's also not fair to go by their 3 hardest game. So maybe the best idea would come from extrapolating out the 7 games against average defenses. So against those 7 average rush defense you can extrapolate out: 1330yds and 18tds. These numbers come pretty close to yours. But, the Falcons only play 2 teams that were better than 16th against the run last year. S.F. and Chicago, the 12th and 14th rated defenses against the run last year. A third of their schedule, 6 games, are against teams that were in the top third against the run. The point being that their schedule against the run is significantly harder than average. My best guess at Turners numbers come out to about 1280 yds and 12 TDs which gives 200 pts in a standard scoring league or good for around RB 7-8 in my RB rankings.

[mattb47]

Actually, Adrian Peterson had 383 carries last year. Or don't post-season carries contribute to wear and tear on the body? It seems none of the studies cited earlier even consider this. A RB for a Super Bowl contender may play 3 or 4 more games/weeks per year than a RB whose team fails to make the playoffs. I would think this factor shouldn't be overlooked.

New insight. Awesome!

Anyone wanna look this up?

Alright well...I did some research on this just for the heck of it to see what came of it.

I included players that fell into 2 categories in this research. The first being those who had 370+ carries including the playoffs, the second being those who had 400+ total TOUCHES including the playoffs. I only went back to 2000 because I just didn't feel like doing more than that.

Feel free to read through all I wrote if you want...I talked about each guy and their season following...if not, skip to the bottom where I summarize my findings.

2000 Season

Eddie George - 430 total carries, 488 total touches

Eddie will appear on this list twice...interestingly enough, following both seasons of 400+ total touches he had 2 of the worst TD totals of his career the following season. He never really had a great ypc average (3.6 for his career) but following each of his 400+ touch seasons he had his 2 worst ypc averages of his career (3.0 and 3.3).

Edgerrin James - 408 total carries, 471 total touches

As many will know well, following his 2000 campaign where he had the most touches of any season in his career, he sustained the knee injury that he may never really fully recovered from. Played just 6 games in the 2001 season, although his ypc stayed the same from 2000 to 2001.

2001 Season
None

2002 Season

Ricky Williams - 383 total carries, 430 total touches

The 2002 season was easily the most productive of his career with over 1800 rushing yards, over 350 receiving yards and 17 total TDs. While he yet again carried the ball over 300 times the next season (even more than in 2002 with 392), his ypc dropped drastically from 4.8 to 3.5 and dropped to 10 TDs that season despite more touches.

LaDainian Tomlinson - 372 total carries, 451 total touches

LT appears on this list 4 times...that in and of itself is amazing considering the trend we're noticing but let's continue. This was LT's second season in the NFL and he is one of the few that not only didn't drop off the next year, he actually improved his numbers from 2002 to 2003 where he averaged 5.3 ypc (up from 4.5) and had more TDs despite fewer carries and overall touches.

Eddie George - 373 total carries, 410 total touches

Just as before, his year following this one was one of the worst of his career despite still getting plenty of touches. He was a workhorse, not the most efficient workhorse but nonetheless you can see a definite dip in his production following the 2000 and 2002 seasons.

2003 Season

Ricky Williams - 392 total carries, 442 total touches

This is the final season before his infamous retirement from the NFL so we don't really know for sure how he would have fared the following season should he have played again. His stats were markedly down from the season before, however, so it's a safe assumption that they probably wouldn't have improved with yet another very heavy workload.

Jamal Lewis - 401 total carries, 427 total touches

Again, quite easily the largest workload of his career in his well known 2000 yard season. He would never really come close to putting up these kinds of numbers ever again though as his ypc dropped an entire yard the following season and his TDs were cut in half with him missing 4 games to injury and failing to even eclipse the 250 carry mark.

Ahman Green - 403 total carries, 461 total touches

The 2003 season is the only one in which Green even had over 350 total carries and only 1 of 2 seasons over 300. He had over 2200 total yards and 20 total TDs that season. The following year his ypc average dropped from 5.3 to 4.5, he only recorded 8 TDs and only had 259 carries in 15 games.

LaDainian Tomlinson - 313 total carries, 413 total touches

He did have a reduced workload from the season before but 100 receptions put him over the 400 touch mark for the season. His numbers would drop, however, following this season with his 2nd lowest ypc average of his career at 3.9 having him finish with 300 fewer rushing yards. His receptions were also cut in half at just 53. Despite all that he still scored 18 total TDs so it's hard to say that he dropped off too terribly.

Deuce McAllister - 351 total carries, 420 total touches

The most productive season of Deuce's career was really also the last truly productive season as a starter he would have. The following season he would miss 2 games, average just 4.0 ypc (down from 4.7), and rush for 600 fewer yards with over 100 fewer touches. He had 1 more TD, but the rest of his numbers were down significantly and he would suffer the knee injury that would essentially end his career as a starter.

2004 Season

Curtis Martin - 408 total carries, 457 total touches

In his largest workload as a RB, he had his best season of his career with nearly 1700 yards rushing, 245 yards receiving, and 14 total TDs. This season, however, would really mark the end of his career productivity wise as he was never the same again. The following season he played in 12 games and had just 220 carries at only 3.3 ypc (down from 4.6) and only 5 TDs. He would never play again after the 2005 season.

Corey Dillon - 410 total carries, 434 total touches

His first year in New England was a great one for him. It was the best of his career and it's too bad that his debut on a team that was actually competitive came so late in his career. After over 1600 yards on 4.7 ypc, he would average just 3.5 ypc the following season playing in just 12 games and only starting 10. His TDs remained high however in his final 2 seasons in the league despite the rest of his productivity dropping off significantly.

2005 Season

Shaun Alexander - 430 total carries, 448 total touches

The 2005 season was his then record breaking year TD wise where he scored 28 total TDs. Obviously he would drop off from that but the fall was much harder than most could have anticipated. He fell from 5.1 ypc down to 3.6 the following year...playing in just 10 games and only carrying the ball 252 times for less than 900 yards and just 7 TDs. He would never reach 1000 yards or double digit TDs again in his career.

Edgerrin James - 373 total carries, 422 total touches

This, his last season in Indianapolis, was really his last year as a true "stud" RB in this league. It's hard to know how much of his dropoff is due to his new situation in Arizona and how much was the 400+ touch workload he had that year but he dropped to just 3.4 ypc from 4.2 and had less than half the TDs he had the previous season. He actually had fewer TDs in 2006 and 2007 combined than he did in 2005. He would proceed to carry the ball over 300 times each of the next 2 seasons though.

Tiki Barber - 370 total carries, 427 total touches

This is another one of the few, despite his age, who managed to avoid the dropoff after a big workload. He would average over 5 ypc yet again the following season and his lower TD total is more due to the arrival of Brandon Jacobs than his dropping off production wise. He had another season of over 2000 total yards following this 2005 year.

Clinton Portis - 385 total carries, 418 total touches

Portis would get hurt the following season and miss half of the year. There wasn't a significant drop in production (4.1 ypc down from 4.3) and he still had 7 TDs in just 7 starts, but he did miss significant time following the largest total workload of his career.

2006 Season

Larry Johnson - 429 total carries, 475 total touches

LJ has never really been the same since his HUGE workload in the 2006 season...mainly because he's been unable to stay on the field for an entire season. He averaged just 4.3 ypc in this season but that dropped further the following year in the 8 games he did play in to just 3.5 and Johnson only scored 4 TDs in 8 games after 19 in 2006. He hasn't carried the ball a combined 400 times in the 2 seasons he's played since this year.

LaDainian Tomlinson - 371 total carries, 429 total touches

Once again, the player that defies all football logic makes his appearance yet again on this list, and yet again the season following this one was not markedly worse than his big touch season (he actually makes another appearance on the 2007 list). This was his record breaking year where he scored 31 total TDs, had over 2300 total yards and averaged 5.2 ypc. The following year those numbers would only drop to 4.7 ypc, 1900 total yards, and 18 TDs.

Steven Jackson - 346 total carries, 436 total touches

This was the only season in which Jackson was able to carry the ball over 300 times. Following this year where he played in all 16 games, he hasn't played more than 12 games in a season and has barely eclipsed 1000 yards rushing in both of the subsequent years. There was no noticeable drop in his ypc but his combined TDs in 2007 and 2008 come short of his 2006 numbers.

2007 Season

LaDainian Tomlinson - 345 total carries, 410 total touches

The only entrant in the 2007 season is LT. This is his 4th and final appearance on this list and really the only one in which is production the following year took a sizable dip. His ypc following this season was the worst of his career at just 3.8, his rushing yards was the lowest of his career, as were his total yards, and his TD total was the worst since his rookie season (although he still had 12). Nonetheless, he was still over 1500 total yards and 12 TDs which isn't as hard a fall as most.

2008 Season

Adrian Peterson - 383 total carries, 404 total touches

The first one to see how things affect him this year is ADP. He had a ton of carries last season and had by far his best season of his short career with over 1700 rushing yards at 4.8 ypc and 10 TDs. He's got a great offensive line and is exceptionally talented so chances are if we see a dropoff it will be due to injury which he has shown he can be susceptible to in the past.

Michael Turner - 394 total carries, 401 total touches

Turner had nearly 400 carries including the playoffs and it's uncommon to see that for a first year starter. What will happen when we see how things turn out this season coming off a season of over 400 touches which has spelled doom for many players in the past? We'll have to wait and see, it's not crazy to think that he'll have trouble duplicating his season of a year ago but he also has the talent to do it again. We'll have to just wait and see.

Analysis

12 Players had at least 370 carries including the playoffs since 2000 (not including last season). Of those players, only 3 times did the player really come back strong the following year (LT in 2002 and 2006, Barber in 2005). All of the other 9 times this happened the player really failed to make the same kind of impact or even close to it that he had done the season before...most times there was a significant dropoff in production or an injury.

4 Players had less than 370 total carries but still had over 400 total touches. Of those players, just LT (2003 and 2007) really made any significant impact the following season.

So ultimately, players not named LaDainian Tomlinson and Tiki Barber have failed to really produce close to what was expected of them in seasons following a workload of 400+ touches since the 2000 season.

[Kensat30]

If you look at that list another way, every single guy on that list was a first round fantasy pick in multiple years. We know all those players were very good for a number of years in most cases. Fact of the matter is, 80-90% of RBs get injured every single year to some extent. A good 50% will miss significant playing time regardlass of what they did last year. That's why ironmen like LT, Emmitt Smith, and Curtis Martin were so good for such a long time. If Fred Taylor had been injury free for his entire career, guy would be a lock for the hall of fame and people would still be reaching for him in drafts this year even though he is 33 years old.

Healthy and talented players reach 400 carries in a season. Chances are they won't be healthy next year.

[mattUTD20]

I posted on this in an article in June and made a smaller post in May that lead to that article. Here's the article proceedings as it relates to ADP which is much more effective than just subjectively stating they did well the next year or not.

Let’s start by taking a look at how running backs that had over 400 touches (playoffs included) with an ADP in the top 10 fare the following season. We do this by looking at who is drafted in the top 10 of the running back position for 2001, finding out who touched the rock 400+ times from the previous season, then see who actually lives up to this billing in the upcoming season. This procedure is repeated up to 2008 and we will have an idea of how successful this group of backs is.

Doing this produces 23 occurrences where a running back gets 400+ touches the previous season and has an ADP in the top 10 the next season. 10 of these occurrences were successful predictions (43.5%). In 17 of these occurrences the running back is ranked in the top five, with the running back ranked sixth through tenth in the other six occurrences. For the 17 top-five occurrences, nine of them were successful top 10 predictions for the upcoming season (52.9%). For positions 6 through 10, only one of the six predictions produced a top 10 running back the following season (16.7%).

There are a few points to make about these findings. Overall, 400+ touch running backs are only slightly less successful as a predictor of future success than the ADP top 10 as a whole (48.75% for ADP top 10 and 43.5% for 400+ touch running backs in the ADP top 10). The same is true for the top five, where the effect is a little larger and where the large majority of this sample is based (60.0% down to 52.9%). In positions 6-10, we find that the success rate is very low, but this sample is rather small (37.5% to 16.7%).

An interesting fact to consider in this sample is that LaDainian Tomlinson accounted for five of the nine successful predictions. Tomlinson is truly unique in this case, having 400+ touch seasons in three consecutive years, and later in back-to-back years, all the while remaining in the top 10. His freakish ability to stay healthy and recover may make this sample seem more successful than it really is. If Tomlinson is removed from the sample, then there are 18 samples, five predicting a top 10 player (27.7%), 12 of which are top-five players and four being accurate (33.3%). This is obviously a much more bleak outlook for 400+ touch rushers. Removing outliers like Tomlinson in this case can damage the integrity of the remaining sample and its results, but because Tomlinson has such a significant effect on the sample (five out of the 23 occurrences, all of them successful), the estimate is probably more accurate without him in it.

[Kareighuis]

I've come back from vacation and am still catching up on all the great points made in all these threads. Some I thought deserved comment-

Not to mention that this curse or wall doesn't take into account the RBs who have higher numbers of catches which is almost as important as the number or carries they have because at the end of the day, they are still putting their body through a pounding whether they run the ball out of the backfield or catch it out of the backfield. A hit by an NFL defender is a hit no matter how you got the ball prior to being hit.

I think there's a big difference between a hit at the line and a hit on the perimeter/secondary. The average DLman is, what, 310-350lbs? Average DB is 200, 210? LB- 250?
It's not just size- look at how the tackles are usually made- you pound a RB into the line, he has 1 or 2 defensive tackles to deal with and, at worst, LBs "flowing" to the ball- meaning they're hunting to decapitate a RB. A typical short/GL plunge up the middle can often end with two DTs crashing headlong into the ballcarrier, two or three LBs hitting the torso, shoulders and head to prevent the over-the-top, and a Safety or two adding on for good measure. In the Secondary, CBs and Ss are comparatively smaller and don't have the same hitting power. Additionally, tackles beyond the hash-marks and in the secondary usually don't involve a mass of humanity- only hard-hitting safeties (like the departed Sean Taylor (RIP) and Roy Williams (the thing he can do well is hit)) and mobile LBs are a concern. If a DB makes a one-on-one tackle, it's a surprise, and is usually done (legally) by grabbing a leg or shirt.

In short, the difference-
A) force= mass x acceleration. The DL's greater mass is not compensated nearly enough by a DBs/LBs usually greater potential for rapid acceleration. More force= more hitting power;
B) Hits and tackles near the point of attack tend to have multiple hits by defenders that can apply greater force than defenders on the perimeter/secondary.
That's why, when Westy was injured for Philly's playoff run, he was constantly shifted out of the backfield- it reduced his vulnerability to injury.

Turner may not get 17 TDs again this year, but if you think that the Falcons will win 10 games this season then his floor has to be about 12 and 1300 yards (which Rudi got three years running on a winning Bengals team). These numbers put Turner in the top 10 running backs last year, so assuming that holds this season then using your first pick on a guy who if healthy will have a floor in the top ten is not a terrible idea.

Personally, if I have that 4th pick and Turner is left, I think I'm taking him simply because he's a better bet than the rest of those guys.

Agreed. The objective is not to pick a guy who will end up ranking about where he was drafted, but the most dependable/reliable one. Last year, Peterson ranked just barely in the top-5, but he was still a good pick- even by those who took him #1 overall.

Even if he's on a "winning" team, that doesn't guarantee him getting 15+ TDs (which he HAS to do to be top 5) and the addition of a great redzone threat at TE in Gonzalez is just another guy who could factor in. I've also heard that they do want to get Norwood more involved this season and that Turner's carry total will be dropping significantly from last season.

I personally think that my best guess is going to be about 1400 total yards and 13-15 TDs...that puts him in the 218-230 FP range which would have put him outside of the top 10 even with 15 TDs this past season. He could end up higher than that but that's what I'm leaning towards at the moment. And that's 310 carries at 4.5 ypc or 320 carries at about 4.4 ypc which is not crazy to think about.

I rank guys not just on where I project they'll finish, but on other things like how reliable they are and their ADP. Based purely on projections, I should have taken DAW first overall, Thomas Jones second, Chris Johnson near the end of the 1st in one of my bonus-scoring leagues. Obviously, that wouldn't have been wise in the least.
How can you project Turner to get 1400/13-15 and say that puts him outside the top 10? Thomas Jones got almost those exact numbers (1312/13, to be exact, with the same 4.5 average) and was in the top three in many of my leagues?!

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Timbathia and Kensat are arguing Turner's case for non-ppr leagues while mattb is arguing against him as a top 5 RB in ppr leagues

I wonder with Maize whether we're arguing different things. Turner's lack of receptions would certainly hurt his ranking in a PPR.

if the player reduces to say 320 carries the following season with the exact same level of production per carry (IE 4.0 YPC and 1TD every 20 carries or something)

Last season it was quite obvious that they were trying to ease Ryan into the role by using Turner A LOT in every situation and the result was a huge amount of carries and not a ton of attempts for Ryan. I expect them to really open up the passing more this season along with getting the explosive Norwood more involved which will result in much fewer carries for Turner this year. 2000/20 is out of the question personally.

Turner averaged 4.5y/c last year and a TD every 22.17 carries. In the regular season, Turner had 377 carries. Let's pretend for a moment he's reduced to 320 carries, as Smack suggests, for the reasons Mattb lists, mostly centering on better play from those around him and an improved passing game. Last season, the top 10 yardage backs (outside of Turner- Peterson, DAW, Portis, Jones, Slaton, Forte, 4.24, Grant, LT Jacobs) averaged the following- 23.83 c/TD, 4.54 y/c. The top 49 yardage backs avgd the following- 29.3c/TD, 4.3 y/c.
But let's ignore these numbers- Let's pretend Mattb's reasons for Atl's improved offense does nothing to improve either Turner's y/c or his c/TD rate- let's actually project a decline in these rates. Additionally, Smack's 320 carries for the season can be prorated, since week 17 doesn't matter in fantasy, to a rounded 301 carries from week 1-16.
If we estimate a downgrade to 4.3y/c and a TD every 25 carries (admittedly pessimistic drops in production, both compared to his performance last year and league averages of both the top 10 and top 49 backs), and assume 301 carries for the fantasy season, that would come out to 1294 yards and 12 TDs, or 201 points. A rather pessimistic floor of roughly 7th overall is good value, IMO.

if we take out Turner's SIX easiest matchups and only left in the tougher matchups, he was still good enough for 1400/14 last year. 1400/14 is probably enough for RB7 or RB8 in most years and that is without the benefit of the easy matchups. How many RBs are good for 1400/14 in any year if you take away their 6 best games? Not many..The one thing that benefits a RB the most is a strong offense. As guys around the RB gets better and the offense improves the quality of touches the RB receives get better as well. That's the reason why a guy like Rudi Johnson, who also never caught the ball, was a back to back to back top10 RB even with average to below average NFL talent. Turner last year showed us that if you give him the touches, the guy is going to compete for the league title because he is an above average talent. The guy last year by worst case scenario and using a flawed analysis (taking out his biggest games) was still good for 1400/14.

Good points- Taken at his worst, he still performed. A TE sucking LBs off the line should only make things better.
Last year, I traded for Turner after his owner got sick of his great game, terrible game cycle. Eventually, the passing game's progression eased up the pressure. After the bye (a 9-game stretch), he had only one game below 10 points. Before the bye, a 6-game stretch, he had 3 such results.

[Stat Staterson]

I expect Turner to equal or better last season's totals.