I am really high on felix jones this year. i am starting to think that i might be too high on him. in my projections i have him getting 800 rushing yds 250 receiving and 7 total td's. i think the td total might be too high, but he will probably take back a kick or two. i have him as my rb21. am i crazy? i'm thinking, if julius jones could put up 1000 yards in dallas, then why can't an infinitely more talented felix jones? anyone else like felix this year?
I'm actually not as high on Felix as some others are this year. Even though I think he is talented, I think the situation in Dallas lends itself to hard situation to produce in this year. You've essentially got three capable RBs all vying for touches in that offense. Even if you put Felix as the primary RB in the traditional sense, you've still got MBIII coming in on third downs and goal lines situations, and you can't leave Choice out of the argument as he produced very well in his limited roll last season.
With that being said, I do think that Felix is the best handcuff out there and I also think MBIII is going to high as well concerning his current ADP. Choice is the only one going late enough for me to consider, even though I probably wouldn't because of Felix and MBIII being in front of him. However, if MBIII goes down with an injury this year, I definitely think Felix is the type of player that could lead his owners to a championship. It's just a potential headache to me that I would prefer to avoid unless the prices to acquire any of them is lower than what they currently are.
Last edited by smackthefirst on Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
smackthefirst wrote:I'm actually not as high on Felix as some others are this year. Even though I think he is talented, I think the situation in Dallas lends itself to hard situation to produce in this year. You've essentially got three capable RBs all vying for touches in that offense. Even if you put Felix as the primary RB in the traditional sense, you've still got MBIII coming in on third downs and goal lines situations, and you can't leave Choice out of the argument as he produced very well in his limited roll last season.
With that being said, I do think that Feliz is the best handcuff out there and I also think MBIII is going to high as well concerning his current ADP. Choice is the only one going late enough for me to consider, even though I probably wouldn't because of Felix and MBIII being in front of him. However, if MBIII goes down with an injury this year, I definitely think Felix is the type of player that could lead his owners to a championship. It's just a potential headache to me that I would prefer to avoid unless the prices to acquire any of them is lower than what they currently are.
I think we've seen this type of scenario before, where there seems to be 3 viable rb's who can produce when given touches. However, there never seems to be enough to go around for that 3rd player. I would have to leave Choice out of any conversation unless one of the other two goes down. Even then, Choice becomes second fiddle in a more reduced role than either Felix of Barber will be in should no one get injured.
I'm trying to think of the last 3 headed rb attack that did well fantasy wise...was it back when Duce Staley was in Philly? I can't even remember who else was there now.
Azrael wrote:I agree with programatik. I don't think Choice will be on the field very much, even though I think he's a good NFL back.
There's just not enough carries to go around no matter what, just look at last year and how Garrett struggled to get Felix the ball one time in that Washington game earlier, depending on Choice to get consistent carries isn't going to happen, maybe a handful to spell someone that's about it.
But I love Felix this year, while I was a huge skeptic so I haven't always been on the bandwagon(he didn't seem to have that extra gear coming out that Chris Johnson did, and while he probably still doesn't he's super elusive and a smooth runner who can still turn a corner), but I think he's a great candidate to explode this year and well worth it considering his adp.
Dallas will want him to get 15 touches a game at least, and that's more then enough for him to rack up 100 total yards and a TD or 2, people will talk about Barber, and how he's not a feature back, but some guys don't need 22 carries to produce, Felix is one of those backs, he can get 8 touches a game and be a solid RB2 most weeks. I also don't think he's just a part time, slasher RB, he's up to 215 and supposedly 'alot thicker in the chest', point being he can run inside and outside and doesn't have the frame of a tiny RB.
I'm expecting 800 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, and 11 TD's from him. I won't overpay for him, but I'll certainly look to draft him even if I'm stocked at RB because of the upside he'll provide...I also think he'll have some big games and quiet games, but he won't be drafted as a starter for anyone, but I fully expect him to flourish this year with an expanded role and Dallas has said over and over how important he is and how they want him to get the ball more.
I like him alot more in dynasty leagues because in a year I think he'll take over as the feature back and take that job by storm...This is a video from his first pre-season game, but I like to look back at this because of how raw he was, but it shows off some of his "elusiveness".
The first play is nice, but check the screen pass at :49 seconds, those are little things I look for from speed backs, he never gets the ball and runs full speed, he lets the play develop and only needs a small crease to take it the distance...Sucks he was hurt so soon, but I expect him to bounce back in a big way.
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I guess I need to clarify about my post a little bit because I think I either worded it the wrong way or was interpreted the wrong way. Regardless, I feel the need to clarify. I don't think Choice is going to do any serious damage to the stats of either Felix or MBIII to start the season. While Choice is a fully capable RB in my opinion, programatik is completely right in that you don't see 3 headed RBBC that often where all three are involved unless there is a dedicated goal line back who does nothing but short yardage work. Of course MBIII is the goal line back but he does much more than just goal line work for Dallas. I did say that Choice was the only one I would even think about considering based on his ADP but even I probably wouldn't take him either in drafts because of Felix and MBIII being in front of him. At best, Choice is nothing more than a late round flier for teams with large benches in redraft leagues as the only way Choice becomes productive is if one of Felix or MBIII goes down with an injury.
However, I still feel that Felix is more of a gamble for this season due to MBIII. I agree with LS's projections except for the TD figures and I think that's from where my difference of opinion stems. I just have this bad feeling, which I'll admit is mostly a gut feeling that I can't really give proof for, that the TDs are going to be hard to come by for Felix this year as I see MBIII being the go to back whenever Dallas gets inside the 20.
Another issue I have with Felix right now is not as much with his ADP bothering me or being too high for my liking, but it's more so the other RBs that are available in the same area or later than him based on ADP (in parenthesis) right now. Not to mention that you can get both RBs in these RBBCs at or later than you can get Felix (6.10). I'll admit that all of these guys are also in RBBCs and all of them are on worse teams than Felix, but I also think that these guys have at worst the same chance as Felix to see an increased work load if the other RB in their RBBC goes down where as they all have a better chance than Felix to outplay their RBBC partner to increase their workload and they can all be had for cheaper than Felix. These tandems are Parker (7.02)/Mendenhall (9.12) and Rice (7.08)/McGahee (12.04).
Of course I've been wrong before plenty of times and I realize that I could be wrong here and that I am in the minority. Also, I don't know why but 90% of the time when I type Felix, I inadvertently type "Feliz" and have to go back and correct it. Maybe I'm so down on Felix because I get so aggravated mistyping his name almost every time. And yes I even mistyped his name on that last sentence.
smackthefirst wrote: With that being said, I do think that Felix is the best handcuff out there...
Off Topic: Better than Sproles? On Topic: All DAL RBs are uncertain, IMO. MBIII has always been a stud, but he is getting pushed by Choice and Jones. Jones hasn't played since Week 6 of 2008. Who knows how he is going to come back? Choice looked very good at times, but again, I'll avoid relying on any of these 3 if possible.
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(In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Packer fan that has hated Dallas forever. I try not to let that influence my fantasy football - Romo has been my QB 2 out of the last 3 years - but I feel it appropriate to label that disclaimer on this post anyway.)
My concern is that Dallas may just not be very good. Only Kitna has turned the ball at a more frequent pace than Romo over the past 2 years. Roy Williams showed us nothing last year, so any expectation for him to take on T.O.'s role is going on faith alone.
So they have Romo, Barber, and Witten? St. Louis has Bulger, SJax, and McMichael and they play in a much easier division - and nobody is expecting playoffs there. Just because your QB plays a round of golf on TV and you have a good RB does not make you a good team. This is just your annual Dallas hype that everyone thinks they are NFC Championship contenders.
So I'm not crazy about any Dallas RBs because this whole offense is a disappointment waiting to happen. I like Felix's talent, but I've see far too many "explosive" backup RBs get 5 - 8 touches per game through an entire season. If this team was better, I'd be more interested in taking a gamble. As it is, he'll be on my draft board somewhere in the midst of Norwood, McCoy and all the other backups with upside. And that will be closer to RB41 than it is to RB21.