Listen to Matt, do not take Brady in the 2nd round. There is no need to take a Qb in rounds 1-3. There are going to be plenty of good QB's available in rounds 4-6. There are a number of Qb's that could throw 25- 30 td's (Rodgers, Mcnabb, Romo, Rivers, Warner, Palmer). There is no need to reach for Brady. With your first 3 picks you should be taking stud WR's and Rb's. it is a lot harder to find #1 Rb's and Wr's in rounds 4-6 than it is to find a stud QB.
Just as a point to show the depth of QBs each season...the #12 QB in points per game last year averaged just 6 points per game less than the best fantasy QB out there last season. There were 6 QBs within 4 points of the #1 and 4 QBs within 3 points. Now, when you're talking WRs...the #24 WR (last #2 WR for 12 team league) averaged 8.6 points less than the #1 WR. Only 10 WRs averaged within 6 points of the top WR in points per game last season and one of them was Nate Burleson who only played in one game.
tantrix1969 wrote:I see your point but Brady is Brady...while I doubt he can match his 07 season I'd bet he gets 40tds next tier qbs will do good to get 30 and throw more picks
The chances of Brady throwing for 40 TDs next year is VERY low...there is a reason why his year a couple years ago was so record breaking...it's because it doesn't happen often and 40 TDs rarely ever occurs for a starting QB. He could very well end up as the #1 QB this year, but there have been MANY QBs who have sustained major knee injuries and have never been the same again...there is no such thing as a "no risk" guy like this and Brady is no exception, especially following major knee surgery. Do you know how many QBs have thrown for even 35+ TDs in the past 4 seasons? Just 2...and just 1 of those was over 40. So if you're tricking yourself into thinking that it's even likely that Brady puts up 40+ TDs again this year, you're kidding yourself.
mattb47 wrote:Just as a point to show the depth of QBs each season...the #12 QB in points per game last year averaged just 6 points per game less than the best fantasy QB out there last season. There were 6 QBs within 4 points of the #1 and 4 QBs within 3 points. Now, when you're talking WRs...the #24 WR (last #2 WR for 12 team league) averaged 8.6 points less than the #1 WR. Only 10 WRs averaged within 6 points of the top WR in points per game last season and one of them was Nate Burleson who only played in one game.
tantrix1969 wrote:I see your point but Brady is Brady...while I doubt he can match his 07 season I'd bet he gets 40tds next tier qbs will do good to get 30 and throw more picks
The chances of Brady throwing for 40 TDs next year is VERY low...there is a reason why his year a couple years ago was so record breaking...it's because it doesn't happen often and 40 TDs rarely ever occurs for a starting QB. He could very well end up as the #1 QB this year, but there have been MANY QBs who have sustained major knee injuries and have never been the same again...there is no such thing as a "no risk" guy like this and Brady is no exception, especially following major knee surgery. Do you know how many QBs have thrown for even 35+ TDs in the past 4 seasons? Just 2...and just 1 of those was over 40. So if you're tricking yourself into thinking that it's even likely that Brady puts up 40+ TDs again this year, you're kidding yourself.
not trying to argue,you make a valid point for the safe way to go.....but sometimes you have to go with your gut,cry havoc,and let slip the dogs of war
"Again, we finished among the league leaders in offense this past year" - Jason Garrett 2/13/13 SMFH
I would definately take Brady. In my mind there's three top Fantasy QB's -- Brady, Manning & Brees. After that it's a mishmash with guys like Romo, Rodgers, Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Schaub following up.
Give me the sure thing. Brady looks fine in camp, and in case anybody missed it -- he's a winner. I figure he's good for 40 TD's and 4,000+ yds. You can't go wrong. There's sound advice above saying you can get one of the other QB's in rounds 4-6, but Brady wil throw for 10 more TD's than any of those guys.
You can get plenty of good RB's later on. Take a chance on a guy like Benson or Julius Jones if you have to.
Everybody criticizes that Brady will have a hard time coming back from ACL surgery, but Philip Rivers did that last year, didn't he? Who's the better QB between Brady and Rivers? Who has better weapons? The Pats still have something to prove, and they might be better than the 2007 team, at least on offense.
The fact that the defense might be a little worse just means the Pats wil throw more often and have to score more often, and that's a good thing for Brady owners.
I like Jennings in the 3rd round, and Roddy White by default if Jennings is gone.
mattb47 wrote:Do NOT take Brady there...it's not worth it in the least. I'd take Jennings and White personally...I think both of those young WRs are in for great seasons and they could be an excellent WR duo for you. Both are WR1s this season and pairing them with a top tier RB could be a fantastic combination.
I completely agree, IF they are still there. Hopefully Brees and Brady get picked, leaving these two WR1 studs for you. I really, really doubt this will happen in a PPR league, but if it does, jump all over Jennings and White.
Thanks to eagles21 for the awesome sig
2011:
Representin' the Cafe in the IBL league: 73-34, 15-8 in Championship Tier playoffs BBKL: 7-6 Money league: 9-4, #1 seed one and done