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What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

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What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby mgravie1 » Mon Jul 27, 2009 6:23 pm

I got the 12th pick out of 12 in my draft. what would be a good 12 13 pick for me.

i want to go RB WR to get the max points i can get. my league is a very pick RB first league. so i no i will have a shot at 1 or even 2 of the top 3 WRs

any help will be great thanks!
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby biju » Mon Jul 27, 2009 6:46 pm

I almost always go RB/WR when on the turn like that however it heavily depends on your league and the position requirements (unless it is a very standard league). I've been known to go WR/WR but only in cases where I *know* I'll get the RBs I'm targeting.

In this particular year however I have this feeling there will be a ton of WRs that will fall deep into the 4th and possibly even 5th rounds that are going to be very undervalued so I might go ahead and grab two RBs right off the top and enjoy the Chad Ochocinco's and Braylon Edwards that fall too far.

;-D
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby mrblitz » Mon Jul 27, 2009 7:49 pm

Biju pretty much nailed it. RB , WR is the way you will probably want to go. After that, you just have to follow what everyone else is doing, to determine the rest of your picks.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby hickdubious » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:43 pm

I just went WR/WR from the 12th spot in a slow draft here at the cafe and I'm regretting it. I wish I would've gone RB/WR now.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby mattb47 » Mon Jul 27, 2009 11:07 pm

hickdubious wrote:I just went WR/WR from the 12th spot in a slow draft here at the cafe and I'm regretting it. I wish I would've gone RB/WR now.


Yea...the problem with the WR/WR strategy is while you might end up with 2 of the best WRs...you end up scrambling to put together solid starters at RB much less find any sort of depth at RB and it really forces you to go RB heavy for many rounds in a row just to give you a chance at having a solid RB corps. Then it means that your WR depth will suffer as well as the caliber of QB you are able to draft...in summary, it causes you to be playing catchup for the rest of the draft.

I'd recommend going RB/RB (if the players are there...although it's unlikely) or RB/WR at the very least. It's a tough spot to be in but one thing I would strongly recommend is to just not really worry about who is "ranked higher" or anything like that...take 2 players there that you like a lot and think will do well because there are A LOT of picks until you go again. Picking at the bookends means that you have to take more risks and take guys above their ADP just to make sure you get them but it's better to have guys you want on your team than to have guys who others rated higher that you don't have much confidence in.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby hickdubious » Mon Jul 27, 2009 11:22 pm

It's a PPR league so the WR/WR strategy isn't terrible.
Last edited by hickdubious on Wed Jul 29, 2009 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby mattb47 » Mon Jul 27, 2009 11:31 pm

hickdubious wrote:It's a PPR league so the WR/WR strategy isn't terrible.

Since I went WR/WR/RB/QB, I know my 5th and 6th round picks are going to have to be RB/RB.


It's a severely common misconception that PPR makes a big change in how RBs and WRs are value in comparison to each other...the comparison doesn't really change because all WRs catch passes...all that really changes is how players are ranked within their positions. RBs are still the most important because of something that PPR doesn't change, and that's scarcity...the biggest reasons RBs are taken first and foremost is because of the scarcity at the position in comparison with how many you need to start. People always seem to be really ready to let things like this influence how early they take players...similar to how people want to rank QBs higher in 6pt/TD leagues compared to 4pt/TD passing leagues. A change like that might increase the point total of a position or positions as a whole, but doesn't necessarily change the VALUE of the position.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby moochman » Tue Jul 28, 2009 12:48 am

mattb47 wrote:
hickdubious wrote:It's a PPR league so the WR/WR strategy isn't terrible.

Since I went WR/WR/RB/QB, I know my 5th and 6th round picks are going to have to be RB/RB.


It's a severely common misconception that PPR makes a big change in how RBs and WRs are value in comparison to each other...the comparison doesn't really change because all WRs catch passes...all that really changes is how players are ranked within their positions. RBs are still the most important because of something that PPR doesn't change, and that's scarcity...the biggest reasons RBs are taken first and foremost is because of the scarcity at the position in comparison with how many you need to start. People always seem to be really ready to let things like this influence how early they take players...similar to how people want to rank QBs higher in 6pt/TD leagues compared to 4pt/TD passing leagues. A change like that might increase the point total of a position or positions as a whole, but doesn't necessarily change the VALUE of the position.


Disagee Matt. In PPR taking WR/WR from the 12 hole is sound. There are only a handfull of WR who are a pretty sure bet to get 100ish receptions, > IK yards and 10 or more TDs. In a PPR those WRs are more likely to out score any RBs you will have by pick 12 than not. I think, in Hickdubious's case, that since Fitz and AJ were already taken it placed a higher premium on the next top two, Moss and Calvin. (I will say that I expected two of Moss, Fitz or AJ to be available) If its not a PPR league than WR.RB is probably a better way to go.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:18 am

We'll have to agree to disagree...PPR does NOT change the value of WRs...if you think that WRs are going to be more valuable than RBs at the 12 spot then they are more valuable regardless of whether there is PPR or not. The point that only some WRs are pretty sure to get 100+ receptions is not an argument that changes value of the WRs as a position...it just relates to how the rankings within the WR position might change (i.e. Wes Welker has more value in PPR). The scarcity factor and the dropoff at the position, etc., all stay the same whether you have PPR or not.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby moochman » Tue Jul 28, 2009 10:56 am

mattb47 wrote:We'll have to agree to disagree...PPR does NOT change the value of WRs...(i.e. Wes Welker has more value in PPR). The scarcity factor and the dropoff at the position, etc., all stay the same whether you have PPR or not.


In a PPR league vs Non-PPR, using last year's numbers the 11-13 RBs were
CJ4.24-237 pts in PPR, 194 non-PPR
Portis-235 pts PPR, 207 non-PPR
Slaton-262 pts PPR, 216 non-PPR

At the 12 spot the top 4 WR last year were:
Fitz-312 pts PPR, 216 non-PPR
AJ-325 pts PPR, 210 non-PPR
Moss-224 pts PPR, 155 non-PPR
Megatron-277pts PPR, 199 non-PPR

Seems to me that PPR gives WRs a decided scoring advantage over RBs. I think your top picks have to do one thing-produce the most points for you. The guys you take in 3-4 may give a similar value (WR/WR, then RB/RB or RB/WR, WR/RB) but the risk is greater that a RB taken around the turn in the 1-2 round will have a fall-off in production than will the elite WRs, and that a WR you take in round 3-4 will have a less of a chance to produce close to expected numbers than a RB taken then. So I think it's saver to go WR at the turn.
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