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What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby benb18a » Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:54 pm

MotorCityKitties wrote:Does anyone have any further thoughts on the 12 spot? I'm thinking of pairing Moss and Brady. Would this be crazy? I'm not thrilled about the RB's at that spot so I might also go with WR/WR.


I wouldn't pair Moss with Brady, as it would be putting too many eggs in your 1st/2nd pick basket IMHO.

I just found out I'm at the 12 hole for a draft tomorrow. It is made up of representatives from a bunch of football sites, so I guess I'll see how the first round pans out to decide how I will pick at that spot. Hopefully, the Yahoo! rankings are somewhat followed, which means I would get to choose from: Gore, CJ24, Slaton, Moss and AJ. I will have to pick up at least one WR there, assuming the top four aren't all taken by that point(I would think at least Fitz will be, possibly one more) even though there might be two first round RBs there. The state of the WR this year just requires one WR at that point, IMHO. I don't know if I'll be able to pass up on CJ and Slaton at that point, if they are actually available though.

With guys like Ronnie Brown and P Thomas going in the fourth round, according to Yahoo ADP, though, I might just take a good look at WR/WR. Unfortunately I don't know enough about the other drafters to know whether or not it will be a great idea.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby 2ksports » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:05 pm

At the 12 spot you pick Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson. Then in round 3 and round 4, you get either another stud receiver like Bowe/Marshall/Owens and a RB like Ronnie Brown, Reggie, Bush, Darren Mcfadden, etc all of whom are likely to outperform their ADP barring injury. RB is the most volatile position and it's the one most likely to get injured so you should not spend your first 2 picks on RBs. You can always get good RBs off the waivers, or late in drafts.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby LostInTheSauce » Mon Aug 17, 2009 10:52 am

Well I did my draft last night and used the WR/WR strategy at pick 12.

This is a CBS standard gold league 12 teamer

T Romo
L Johnson
P Thomas
D Sproles (R)
W McGahee (R)
Buckhalter (R)
A Johnson
L Fitzgerald
T Ginn Jr. (R)
J Jones
T Gonzalez
N Folk
Cowboys
Bears (R)

My initial plan was to go RB/WR but I told myself if Gore and Williams were gone I was switching to the WR strategy. Unless of course someone who shouldn't be there fell to me. The number 11 spot took a Brady/Moss combo so the team I am comparing to is the 10 spot

The first 11 picks were all RB except for Brees and Brady. As I looked at the choices at RB I was more than happy to get two studs and take RB later. I also started a run as 5 of the next 6 picks were WR.

The backs I could've picked that were drafted soon after I picked were Barber, Johnson, Westbrook, Smith, Brown, and Portis.

A look at how it transpired with a team that went RB/RB

His team Forte/Barber and Colston/Welker
My team Johnson/Fitzgerald and Johnson/Thomas

I then went for TE and QB with my next 2 picks taking Romo and Gonzo and queing up a list of RB I could snag later. This left me with Julius Jones and Sproles, and later Mcgahee and Ginn (even though I tried to take Hightower but it screwed up on me).

Overall his team ended up being decent but I think mine may be betterin the end. Colston and Barber have question marks concerning RBBC's and injury problems while Welker is lacking in the TD department. As far as my team goes, as long as Pierre pans out I should be in good shape.

Whatever the case I thought someone might find this useful in comparing strategies. Heres his team......

J Cutler
D McNabb (R)
M Barber
M Forte
F Jones (R)
K Moreno (R)
M Colston
W Welker
J Maclin (R)
P Harvin (R)
D Hester
B Celek
S Gostkowski
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby 2ksports » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:47 pm

I would have picked Calvin over Andre. Physically more talented, and Andre sucks every other year.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby smackthefirst » Mon Aug 17, 2009 8:42 pm

Just for the heck of it, I decided to roll the dice coming out of the 10th spot in a 12 team league where we start 2QB-2RB-2WR-1FLEX-1TE-2K-1D. It's normal PPR scoring with RBs only getting .5PPR. And here's what I ended up with. The disclaimer I have to give is that since it's a 2QB league, there are always guys falling past what many of you would consider their normal ADP.

1 - RMoss
2 - Calvin
3 - McNabb
4 - KSmith
5 - RBush
6 - Moreno
7 - Orton
8 - CWells
9 - SHill
10 - ODaniels
11 - PHarvin
12 - MCGahee
13 - CPepp
14 - Bradshaw
15 - ASmith
16 - EGraham
17 - CShilens
18 - CSimms
19 - Scobee
20 - Carpenter

So my analysis is as follows. The QB situation took a little bit of a hit as I had to focus on RBs after the first 2 rounds. Fortunately, I feel comfortable if I have to play matchups with my QB2 between Orton and SHill. My WRs are solid and I took 2 guys with upside. I could have targeted a more solid WR3, but I feel that I will be able to use one of my RBs as the season goes to fill in that spot if Harvin or Schilens doesn't play their way into that spot. ODaniels is solid as my TE and I missed GOlsen by two picks.

But the important aspect is the RBs you end up with after starting off with 2 WRs regardless of how many QBs you start. I missed out on PThomas by 2 picks but I felt ok taking KSmith as my RB1. I then have RBush (remember PPR) and Moreno to platoon as my RB2 and/or flex player. Then I have enough upside when you involve CWells, McGahee, Bradshaw, and Graham.

I honestly think that if you don't take a RB with one of your first two picks, then you must be sure to load up on RBs as the odds of hitting can't be more than 25%-30% at best. So you want to make sure you have as many options as possible.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby BLT4ME » Wed Aug 26, 2009 11:57 pm

I am in a 12-team QB, 2WR, 2RB, flex, TE, K DEF league with standard scoring except 50/point for qb and 6point td for Qb's.

I have done many mock's at this position and unless good rb fall way below their adp, like d'wil, you are pretty much forced to take wr/wr. What I have realized the best thing about starting wr/wr is that you don't have to take another wr until the 10/11 wraparound pick. This gives you 8 picks to find 4rb, 2qb, and 2 Best Available. The depth in RB this year in rounds 3-7 has me usually drafting 4 consecutive RB's in 3/4, and 5/6 sandwich picks. I also think in the 12th slot going, WR/WR/RB/RB/RB/RB/QB/QB and going QBBC with palmer/hasselbeck makes more sense that risking a decent 4th rb will be there on your 7/8 switch.

The teams I end up with look pretty damn good, usually something like.
QB: palmer, hasselback
WR- Moss, Megatron, ginn, c. henry
rb- kevin smith, mcfadden, chris wells, ray rice, mike bush, glen coffee
te: shockey/zack miller
DEF: usually take a top 5 def at the 11/12 juncture if its there
K: whatever

it gives you the depth to start a rb in the flex every week. My real draft is in a week. Anyone else have anything else to add?
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby BLT4ME » Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:06 pm

I just had my draft last night, 12-team standard scoring league rules except 6pt passing TD and a flex instead of 3 WR.

Take home lessons before I get to my team:
1. Mocking was EXTREMELY useful, because at every sandwich pick I had a great idea of who would and woulnd't be there 23 picks later position wise.
2. picking from the 12 spot this year means you are already fighting an uphill battle for the trophy. I had done numerous mock's and very rarely was I really excited with the team I ended up with.
3. This influenced my strategy which is draft upside and try to win it or go home at the 12th pick.
4. At the 12 spot, it is more about picking players YOU WANT than value because of the 20 or so players you will consider they will ALL be gone by the time it gets back to you.

Ok on to the draft.

1. Moss
2. Megatron

Comment: With all the usuals off the board including Dwil and Gore, the only players I was considering with the 12/13 spot was Fitz/AJ/Ross/Mega/Brees/Brady/Westbrook/jacobs. As it turned out no WR were taken until my pick. Brady's shoulder scared me off, warner and boldin scare me away from fitz, and shaub scared me away from AJ. There wasn't enough upside with jacobs, and westbrook is scaring me with his injury status.

3. Grant
4. DMAC

Comment: I was really excited to see Grant here. I would have taken manning here or considered rodgers, but both were gone. PT, ronnie brown, kevin smith were all gone. I almost considered earching for Rice over DMAC but I thought Rice had a chance to be there on the way back. As it turned out Rice went 4 picks later

5. Wells
6. Moreno

Comment: The beginning of the 5th round started a run on QB's leaving only Palmer and Shaub available with 3 people left w/o a QB. I decided to roll the dice and take the last two potential starting RB's (minus bush and benson who were still there) instead of overpaying for Palmer or Shaub. This could have been a mistake but I now have two top WR and 4 RB's with upside. I only NEED 2 of them to pan out, preferably 3.

7. Cooley
8. Anthony Gonz

Comment: Both the other players took the last remaining viable QB's so i didnt see the need to draft a QB here (I wanted Hasselback and I figured he would be here on the way back) and overpay. I had to pick cooley because he was the last available 2nd tier TE on my board. I would have bet you $1000 that i would not have A Gonz on my team, but apparently my whole league reads KenSat. I don't like him personally, but in the 8th round it was either him or Hester (who i like), and the value of picking him was too valuable

9. Hasslebeck
10. Eli Manning

Comment: I didn't plan on taking 2 Qb's here but I felt a run of backup QB's started into my picks and I felt it would continue (and I was right). Instead of Eli, I thought about Garrard or Favre. But given my tenuous position of not having a QB1 I felt I needed one safe QB with the highest floor, and that is Eli. Had I not picked two QB's here I would have been left with Delhomme or Pennington on the way back.

11. C. Henry
12. Michael Bush

Comment: I cannot believe I got Henry this late. I was almost going to take Ginn Jr as well (as he slipped this far), but I felt the need to handcuff DMAC with Bush here. The only other pick I was considering was J Davis, but I elt I couldn't risk not getting bush and I could probably get Davis with my next picks (I was wrong, he went shortly after my pick).

13. Chargers DEF
14. Kaeding

Comment: I was shocked that Chargers DEF, the #1 unit in 2007, was on the board with this pick. I picked Kaeding because most teams needed a K,def,te and I felt I could get my pick of kickers here and was hopeful bernard scott would be there at the last pick.

15. Scott

Comment: I was extremely pleased I got him on my team. This vindicated the move of drafting Bush handcuff over Davis.

I hope this was helpful for those picking in this spot. I would love any comments on my team. I feel ok about the draft and I could have done any better given what picks I had. In hindsight, Brady/Moss would have been a better 1/2 pick considering how quickly the QB's got drafted. That being said, that allowed me to get Grant in the 3/4 spot. I just have to hope that all the young RB's I have someone will emerge. This team is either a last place team, or a team that by the end of the season is blowing teams out. That was my goal.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby Kensat30 » Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:53 pm

mattb47 wrote:
hickdubious wrote:It's a PPR league so the WR/WR strategy isn't terrible.

Since I went WR/WR/RB/QB, I know my 5th and 6th round picks are going to have to be RB/RB.


It's a severely common misconception that PPR makes a big change in how RBs and WRs are value in comparison to each other...the comparison doesn't really change because all WRs catch passes...all that really changes is how players are ranked within their positions. RBs are still the most important because of something that PPR doesn't change, and that's scarcity...the biggest reasons RBs are taken first and foremost is because of the scarcity at the position in comparison with how many you need to start. People always seem to be really ready to let things like this influence how early they take players...similar to how people want to rank QBs higher in 6pt/TD leagues compared to 4pt/TD passing leagues. A change like that might increase the point total of a position or positions as a whole, but doesn't necessarily change the VALUE of the position.


If you start 3 or more WRs, absolutely PPR makes a giant change in the relative worth of WRs versus RBs. If 40 WRs are starting every week, you have to dig pretty deep to find guys that are guaranteed to catch 5+ passes.
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby BLT4ME » Fri Oct 09, 2009 11:06 am

BLT4ME wrote:I just had my draft last night, 12-team standard scoring league rules except 6pt passing TD and a flex instead of 3 WR.

Take home lessons before I get to my team:
1. Mocking was EXTREMELY useful, because at every sandwich pick I had a great idea of who would and woulnd't be there 23 picks later position wise.
2. picking from the 12 spot this year means you are already fighting an uphill battle for the trophy. I had done numerous mock's and very rarely was I really excited with the team I ended up with.
3. This influenced my strategy which is draft upside and try to win it or go home at the 12th pick.
4. At the 12 spot, it is more about picking players YOU WANT than value because of the 20 or so players you will consider they will ALL be gone by the time it gets back to you.

Ok on to the draft.

1. Moss
2. Megatron

Comment: With all the usuals off the board including Dwil and Gore, the only players I was considering with the 12/13 spot was Fitz/AJ/Ross/Mega/Brees/Brady/Westbrook/jacobs. As it turned out no WR were taken until my pick. Brady's shoulder scared me off, warner and boldin scare me away from fitz, and shaub scared me away from AJ. There wasn't enough upside with jacobs, and westbrook is scaring me with his injury status.

3. Grant
4. DMAC

Comment: I was really excited to see Grant here. I would have taken manning here or considered rodgers, but both were gone. PT, ronnie brown, kevin smith were all gone. I almost considered earching for Rice over DMAC but I thought Rice had a chance to be there on the way back. As it turned out Rice went 4 picks later

5. Wells
6. Moreno

Comment: The beginning of the 5th round started a run on QB's leaving only Palmer and Shaub available with 3 people left w/o a QB. I decided to roll the dice and take the last two potential starting RB's (minus bush and benson who were still there) instead of overpaying for Palmer or Shaub. This could have been a mistake but I now have two top WR and 4 RB's with upside. I only NEED 2 of them to pan out, preferably 3.

7. Cooley
8. Anthony Gonz

Comment: Both the other players took the last remaining viable QB's so i didnt see the need to draft a QB here (I wanted Hasselback and I figured he would be here on the way back) and overpay. I had to pick cooley because he was the last available 2nd tier TE on my board. I would have bet you $1000 that i would not have A Gonz on my team, but apparently my whole league reads KenSat. I don't like him personally, but in the 8th round it was either him or Hester (who i like), and the value of picking him was too valuable

9. Hasslebeck
10. Eli Manning

Comment: I didn't plan on taking 2 Qb's here but I felt a run of backup QB's started into my picks and I felt it would continue (and I was right). Instead of Eli, I thought about Garrard or Favre. But given my tenuous position of not having a QB1 I felt I needed one safe QB with the highest floor, and that is Eli. Had I not picked two QB's here I would have been left with Delhomme or Pennington on the way back.

11. C. Henry
12. Michael Bush

Comment: I cannot believe I got Henry this late. I was almost going to take Ginn Jr as well (as he slipped this far), but I felt the need to handcuff DMAC with Bush here. The only other pick I was considering was J Davis, but I elt I couldn't risk not getting bush and I could probably get Davis with my next picks (I was wrong, he went shortly after my pick).

13. Chargers DEF
14. Kaeding

Comment: I was shocked that Chargers DEF, the #1 unit in 2007, was on the board with this pick. I picked Kaeding because most teams needed a K,def,te and I felt I could get my pick of kickers here and was hopeful bernard scott would be there at the last pick.

15. Scott

Comment: I was extremely pleased I got him on my team. This vindicated the move of drafting Bush handcuff over Davis.

I hope this was helpful for those picking in this spot. I would love any comments on my team. I feel ok about the draft and I could have done any better given what picks I had. In hindsight, Brady/Moss would have been a better 1/2 pick considering how quickly the QB's got drafted. That being said, that allowed me to get Grant in the 3/4 spot. I just have to hope that all the young RB's I have someone will emerge. This team is either a last place team, or a team that by the end of the season is blowing teams out. That was my goal.


The goal of this post is to try to rehash how the 12th pick drafters have fared so far. I would be surprised to find a 4-0 team from this spot in a competitive league because your sandwich picks for the first two picks would be from (AJ, Fitz, Moss, Mega, Westbrook, Jacobs, Portis, Gore (if you were lucky). Hence, not a lot of those players have been studs.

My team is 2-2, led by Moss and Megatron, and a hasselback injury in the first quarter in week 2 cost me or I would be 3-1. I still feel like it will be difficult for me to win this league from this spot unless Grant and Moreno become legit RB1/2 and Moss and Calvin start putting up the occasional monster game.

How have other of you done from this spot at the 1/4 mark of the season?
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Re: What Strategy do you use at pick 12?

Postby mattb47 » Fri Oct 09, 2009 11:52 am

In the cafe vs fleaflicker league I actually drafted at the turn at position 16 since its a 16 team league and I'm currently 3-1 and in 2nd place overall. Drafted RB/WR at the first turn.
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