Too much time on my hands - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Too much time on my hands

Moderator: Football Moderators

Too much time on my hands

Postby Rotoanalyst » Mon Sep 02, 2002 8:39 pm

Like the Styx song, thanks to bad weather on a holiday weekend, I have now completely overanalyzed my league. Anyway, everyone always talks RB, RB and how improtant they are. Anyway, I did a statistical analysis of my league for the last two years and the biggest drop off from top players is atually WR. Therefore, taking one of the big 3 WR and then actually a QB is a statisitciallly logical idea.

The problem is I pick 10th in a 14 team league and although most of my competitors will be focusing on RB , I doubt any of the big 3 receivers will be there at 10.


My question is David Boston. How close to them is he? He did lead the league in receiving yards last year while catching 98 bals and 8 TD. He has 2 games with SF and STL each (2 are during the fantasy playoffs) and one with WASH.

Most draft boards have him picked between 15-25, but if I knew he would produce 90 % of the other 3, I might take him. What do you think?
Rotoanalyst


Home Cafe: Football
Friendliness: %

Postby terpfan » Mon Sep 02, 2002 8:44 pm

i like david boston a lot. i was scared off a bit by his knee problems and im still not sure how much i should factor that into his draft position. i ur case i wouldnt take him with ur first pick. i wouldnt put him int eh class of elite receivers just yet. take a rb or a qb and then try and get him with ur next pick if u really want him. he will probably still be there at 18th overall. (assuming serpentine draft format)
terpfan
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerSweet 16 ChampionPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 11116
Joined: 30 May 2002
Home Cafe: Football

Postby Arlo » Mon Sep 02, 2002 9:04 pm

Good thoughts. I always find it interesting that the term "positional scarcity" is used incessantly in fantasy baseball, yet almost never used in football talk...

I agree that WRs are often neglected, and I certainly agree that picking a WR in round 1 can be a viable strategy. One factor which you have to add to your analysis, however, is consistency. If a WR and an RB both average 15 points a game, for example, the RB is likely to put up a number fairly close to 15 in any given week, while th WR might give you 25, but might also wind up with just 5. When picking RBs early, you're also paying for consistency.

(We have an article in the works, by the way, that focuses on when to start WRs and when to use RBs, which touches on just this issue - stay tuned :-) )

How did you calculate dropoff? Did you consider TE in your analysis? I'd certainly be interested in seeing your results.
Arlo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 6631
Joined: 4 Jan 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The 50 yard line

Strategy

Postby Too much time again » Mon Sep 02, 2002 9:12 pm

Pretty simple actually, took the players drafted by position in each of the first 5 rounds and took averages by our league scoring (We use TE optional BTW)

QB - 119, 99 , 90 ,90 ,74
RB - 61, 47, 42, 33, 29
WR - 100 , 57, 38, 18, 40

If you look at the drop off from the big 3 WR, from 100 to 57, there is my logic. Boston scored 78 points in my league last year. If the argument is that he will surpass last year (85 -90), the drop off is still logical. All this begin said however, I hate to "waste" a first round pick on someone most people like in the second round.
Too much time again


Home Cafe: Football
Friendliness: %

Postby Arlo » Mon Sep 02, 2002 9:17 pm

Interesting. Do injuries affect these values? For instance, is James' score included with the first-round RBs?
Arlo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 6631
Joined: 4 Jan 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The 50 yard line

Injuries

Postby Too much time again » Mon Sep 02, 2002 9:25 pm

Actually, I had no choice but to include backups in some of the calcualtions, especially at RB. The idea being that injuries (out side of Freddy T) are hard to predict, the points that the backup played when a got are "out" are included. Not perfect but....

Back to my original post, is Boston close enough? Or is there another WR you think is better than Boston?
Too much time again


Home Cafe: Football
Friendliness: %


Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 11:52 hours
(and 37 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact