Ok, I have the first overall pick in my upcoming keeper league draft, as well as the fourth pick in the second round (16th overall). Everyone keeps three players, .4 PPR, otherwise the scoring is mostly normal. Start QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE/K/D. My keepers are Tom Brady, Chris Johnson, and Clinton Portis. I'm thinking of going with an RB for the flex and a WR with those two picks. The better guys available (after keepers):
RBs: Pierre Thomas Knowshon Moreno Willie Parker Kevin Smith Reggie Bush Derrick Ward Larry Johnson Julius Jones Beanie Wells
WRs: Houshmanzadeh Welker Dwayne Bowe Owens Brandon Marshall Vincent Jackson Braylon Edwards Antonio Bryant Roy Williams Ochocinco
I am leaning towards taking a WR with the pick, which means I could get someone from the Housh/Welker/Bowe group for my WR1 but probably end up with someone in the low-end starter/high-end backup range as my RB3. Or, I could take Pierre Thomas, who I actually kind of like this year, and hope to piece together a competent WR core in the 2nd-5th (really 5th-8th due to the keepers) rounds. Thoughts?
That's a tough choice. You should go WR here, but there is pretty good value at RB to pick from with that first pick. I would go with either Bowe or Marshall with the first pick, whichever one you are higher on, and then hope to pick up Moreno, Ward, LJ or JJ with that 16th overall pick. I just don't like all of the huge ?s that surround the WRs after the dropoff in the late third round/early fourth round. You could very well end up with a bunch of duds at WR if you go with Pierre with that first pick, the WR3-WR4 picture is much more convoluted than the RB3-RB4 picture, IMHO.
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Representin' the Cafe in the IBL league: 73-34, 15-8 in Championship Tier playoffs BBKL: 7-6 Money league: 9-4, #1 seed one and done
There is some good value there at both WR and RB. I think with Marshall and Edwards there I would probably take one of those. Possibly Moreno as well (since it is a keeper). I am not sure Portis is the long term answer for you. Moreno is tempting but not knowing what the load will look like in Denver.
I had Roddy White last year but he was involved in trading for Portis, and the options at WR after that were ugly (Torry Holt and Devin Hester were the next best options). At any rate, we've declared keepers, so I'm stuck with those three now unless I can trade one of them for a WR someone else has.