First overall pick in keeper league draft - RB or WR? WHIR

[Ek]

Ok, I have the first overall pick in my upcoming keeper league draft, as well as the fourth pick in the second round (16th overall). Everyone keeps three players, .4 PPR, otherwise the scoring is mostly normal. Start QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE/K/D. My keepers are Tom Brady, Chris Johnson, and Clinton Portis. I'm thinking of going with an RB for the flex and a WR with those two picks. The better guys available (after keepers):

RBs:
Pierre Thomas
Knowshon Moreno
Willie Parker
Kevin Smith
Reggie Bush
Derrick Ward
Larry Johnson
Julius Jones
Beanie Wells

WRs:
Houshmanzadeh
Welker
Dwayne Bowe
Owens
Brandon Marshall
Vincent Jackson
Braylon Edwards
Antonio Bryant
Roy Williams
Ochocinco

I am leaning towards taking a WR with the pick, which means I could get someone from the Housh/Welker/Bowe group for my WR1 but probably end up with someone in the low-end starter/high-end backup range as my RB3. Or, I could take Pierre Thomas, who I actually kind of like this year, and hope to piece together a competent WR core in the 2nd-5th (really 5th-8th due to the keepers) rounds. Thoughts?

[benb18a]

That's a tough choice. You should go WR here, but there is pretty good value at RB to pick from with that first pick. I would go with either Bowe or Marshall with the first pick, whichever one you are higher on, and then hope to pick up Moreno, Ward, LJ or JJ with that 16th overall pick. I just don't like all of the huge ?s that surround the WRs after the dropoff in the late third round/early fourth round. You could very well end up with a bunch of duds at WR if you go with Pierre with that first pick, the WR3-WR4 picture is much more convoluted than the RB3-RB4 picture, IMHO.

[thebigsmooth]

There is some good value there at both WR and RB. I think with Marshall and Edwards there I would probably take one of those. Possibly Moreno as well (since it is a keeper). I am not sure Portis is the long term answer for you. Moreno is tempting but not knowing what the load will look like in Denver.


Please take a look at mine
viewtopic.php?f=18&t=439149

[benb18a]

Who do you have for WRs that you could keep? If you are dropping either Bowe or Marshall, I would think about keeping them instead of Portis and then drafting Thomas.

[Ek]

I had Roddy White last year but he was involved in trading for Portis, and the options at WR after that were ugly (Torry Holt and Devin Hester were the next best options). At any rate, we've declared keepers, so I'm stuck with those three now unless I can trade one of them for a WR someone else has.

[dapound]

I would try something different, I would take Thomas with the 1st pick & Braylon with the 2nd. Braylon will have a bounce back year and continue to put up good numbers.

[AuburnTigers]

My first choice would be one of the following: P. Thomas, Moreno, Bowe, Welker.

I would take P. Thomas in this spot since RB will depleted when it gets back to you at 16. It's always easier to fill in at WR rather than RB.

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