id go with AP, he's less "bust potential" than MJD and just as much upside. Not that MJD isnt proven, he's just never been the lone workhorse RB, and Forte and Turner havent showed they can repeat. I know thats nit picky but we're talking top 5 rb here. Also if you can score Chester taylor as a handcuff it gives you even more security than any other RB. The AP situation is much better because Chester has proven he can produce and takes out the injury concern.
LegendoftheFall wrote:id go with AP, he's less "bust potential" than MJD and just as much upside. Not that MJD isnt proven, he's just never been the lone workhorse RB, and Forte and Turner havent showed they can repeat. I know thats nit picky but we're talking top 5 rb here. Also if you can score Chester taylor as a handcuff it gives you even more security than any other RB. The AP situation is much better because Chester has proven he can produce and takes out the injury concern.
Agree 100% here. I don't think there is anyway you can pass up on ADP. He's proven to everyone that he can handle the full workload.
I'm in the AP camp here. MJD is good, and more of a receiving threat, but I think Peterson is just a cut above him. Even if you don't want trust him yourself, he has massive trade value. I also don't think it is a lock the MJD will get all, or even substantially more, of the carries just because there is no longer a proven second RB; that role is one where players tend to emerge.
TruNinerFan wrote:In PPR leagues, I think that MJD will be the #1 RB this year. I know it hurts's to pass on AP. But, I think they will be even in TD's and total yards. But, I just see MJD catching twice as many balls as AP. Plus, Brad Childress likes to use Chester Taylor. He will be on the field on passing downs and he does get some goal line carries. There is really no one there to take carries from MJD.
Not yet.... but someone will emerge as a backup (I like Jennings from Liberty to take that job). History has shown that MJD does very well with a limited amount of carries... will JAX give MJD a workhorse amount of carries or continue to limit his touches?
Sorry, but I don't fear a 7th round pick rookie. I would be much more worried about Chester Taylor. He has proved that he can play in the NFL and obviously coach Childress trusts him because he is in the game a lot.
Its cliche to say, but you cant make a bad pick here. Ive seen ADP go 1, 2, and 3 in PPR drafts already this summer. In a PPr i would actually take Forte and MJD ahead of All Day, but thats just me. Im not gonna shoot anyone elses way of thinking down, i just think both those guys will get triple the receptions ADP will. ADP, if healthy, will gain 1600+ yds on the ground, but i dont see him finding the endzone more than 10 times. Forte is a lock for 1600+ TOTAL yds, 7-9 td's and far more receptions, and MJD will likely lead the bunch in finding the endzone, match forte in rush yds, and lead all 3 in receptions. Take ur pick.
In a seasonal draft, non keeper PPR Id rank them MJD Forte ADP.
But the space between each one overall is too small to make a fuss about.
TruNinerFan wrote:In PPR leagues, I think that MJD will be the #1 RB this year. I know it hurts's to pass on AP. But, I think they will be even in TD's and total yards. But, I just see MJD catching twice as many balls as AP. Plus, Brad Childress likes to use Chester Taylor. He will be on the field on passing downs and he does get some goal line carries. There is really no one there to take carries from MJD.
Not yet.... but someone will emerge as a backup (I like Jennings from Liberty to take that job). History has shown that MJD does very well with a limited amount of carries... will JAX give MJD a workhorse amount of carries or continue to limit his touches?
Sorry, but I don't fear a 7th round pick rookie. I would be much more worried about Chester Taylor. He has proved that he can play in the NFL and obviously coach Childress trusts him because he is in the game a lot.
I'm just saying that MJD has never sniffed 300 carries, let alone 350, as you would want your #1 pick to get. I understand that he is used extensively in the passing game... one can't assume he will get all his 2008 carries AND most of Fred Taylor's carries -- there is no historical precedence for it.
I know we are splitting hairs here, but if you have the #1 overall pick -- he'd better produce as a top-3 RB or you're sunk. To me, AP gives the best chance to get a top-3 RB at that spot.
I have the same dilemma (#1 pick in 12 team PPR league). I've been going back and forth on MJD and AP. This is the way I'm looking at it: AP is the "safe" pick. You'll get 1,600+ yards and about 10 td's (with the possibility of 2,000 yards and 15 td's). The drawback with AP is rec (max up side of about 30). MJD has the possibility of 1,700+ total yards, 50+ rec, and 15+ td's. BUT, he's never been the "man", so you don't know how the Jags will use him in the role. Remember, a few years ago Greg Jones (Jags FB) was used as a short yardage back. So, the biggest question is will MJD get the goal-line carries? If you had a later draft date (mine is in Sept), then you can watch preseason to see who is going to get those goal-line carries.
So, the real question is: How much of a gambler are you? MJD is a swing for the fences. If he performs like a lot of people think he's going to, then he's the #1 pick. But he could just as easily get lifted at the goal-line to keep him fresh for the enitre season. With AP, you know what you are going to get. People will say injury is a drawback, but this is football and everyone is an injury risk (esp. at RB).
If I'm you, I would play it safe and take AP and petition the league to have the draft in late Aug/early Sept next year. The #1 pick is not the spot to take risks. A #1 bust can destroy a season. Go with AP, and his solid production, and take your risks with other picks.
Egg2828 wrote:I 110% take MJD in PPR. No questions asked. AP does NOT catch balls at all...MJD could get 60-70 catches and 2000 total yards.
Or MJD can stink it up and show that he can't handle the full work load with 350+ carries/touches. IMO, the first round is where you want your proven pick to be the core of your squad. Go with ADP. Then guys like Hester, Ginn, Harvin, C. Henry, McFadden, etc, mcuh later in the draft who can blow up any week and win you weeks by themselves. I personally don't want my first round pick to be an iffy pick. Go with the proven ADP.
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by LegendoftheFall » Fri Jul 31, 2009 11:41 am 
