consistent winners: how much luck is involved?

[kickureface]

how much luck is involved? its accepted fantasy is a LOT of luck, but i dont bleieve that it is all luck as many seem to like to say. i certainly beleive you can increase your chances of winning a lot by looking down the road and making wise decisions (good add/drops, good draft, good trades to avoid danger in 14/15)

[eagles21]

I believe the saying goes along the lines of: "It takes skill to consistently make the playoffs, but it takes luck to win a championship", or something like that.

This is pretty much what my thinking is. Too make the playoffs, you need to consistently draft better and work the waiver wire better then the majority of the people in your league, year after year. That takes skill. Winning a championship can simply come down how good or bad your team does in weeks 14-16, and even the team with all the studs can have a bad week once in a while.

[bungle613]

There has been a saying floating around the cafe for a few years now and I believe it 100%.

"It takes luck to win a championship. It takes skill to get there."

You make the playoffs on a consistent basis, you are a good FF player. You win a championship in 1 out of your 4 leagues and miss the playoffs in the other 3, consider yourself lucky.

[jake_twothousandfive]

Well put by both of you. I agree 100% with that saying (either variation).

[benb18a]

I believe the saying goes along the lines of: "It takes skill to consistently make the playoffs, but it takes luck to win a championship", or something like that.

That's more or less exactly how it is.

Last year I found out first hand just how much luck is involved in winning a championship, on both sides of the scale. There was one money league that almost made me quit FF altogether. In a 12 team league, I had Ryan, Favre, Thigpen; Jacobs, Westbrook, K Smith; Jennings, Fitzgerald, R White; Olsen at TE. I started the season off great, something like 5-2, as a team that caliber should. Then the second half, a total disaster. Despite using logic, common sense, the Cafe's start'em rankings and the start'em forum, my bench outscored my starters by almost a 2:1 ratio during the second half, and I limp into the playoffs at 7-6 and get destroyed by the eventual champion.

Then in another money league, a mediocre team of mine snuck into the playoffs as the bottom seed and won the title. I actually made the team worse by trading for Barber before his injury. My drafting was pretty good in that league, like it normally is(a lot of the guys are relatively inexperienced, so the drafts are like Christmas when you're a child) but even though bad years and injuries almost put me out of the playoffs, I still got hot and won at the end. Then the year before in that league, I finished on an 8-0 run to go 11-3 and then crapped the bed in the first round

The way I see it, this game is just like poker. You can play it like a total moron, and still win the championship once in a blue moon, and you can also dedicate yourself and play as close to perfectly as you can, and still have nothing to show for it for a good stretch. However, like stated, skill gets you to the playoffs on a regular basis, and once you get there, it's pretty much a craps shoot. Getting to the playoffs is most of the battle, because once there it is definitely not set in stone. I have seen many, many teams with barely above .500 records win the title making it as the bottom seed over the years. If you play in the same redraft league year in and year out, the chance of repeating as champion has to be pretty slim, compared to keeper leagues.

[smackthefirst]

Well this thread seems to be taken care of completely. My general rule of thumb follows the same sayings presented here. If I don't make the playoffs, I consider that my fault but if I lose in the playoffs, I don't consider that my fauly. Reason being that, even though you may have a few random bad (read unlucky) games throughout the year, at the end of the regular season your skill will usually determine whether or not you make the playoffs. However, if you have one of those bad (read unlucky) games in the playoffs, then you're done for. And unfortunately, no amount of skill or preparation can prepare you for your opponents players having the games of their lives and putting in the season's league wide high score when you face them.

[Azrael]

A wise man once said

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=331663&p=2353667&hilit=+skill+luck#p2353667

[Tiptoe_Stevens]

There has been a saying floating around the cafe for a few years now and I believe it 100%.

"It takes luck to win a championship. It takes skill to get there."

You make the playoffs on a consistent basis, you are a good FF player. You win a championship in 1 out of your 4 leagues and miss the playoffs in the other 3, consider yourself lucky.

Never heard that before, but I'll agree with it completely. I make the playoffs every year in at least four of my five leagues and it's not uncommon for me to have the best regular season team. Then the playoffs hit and I always get fluked. In my main league, I had the best team by a long shot (Chris and Calvin Johnson, Cutler, all of my picks seemed to pan out). Naturally, I fly into the playoffs and faced Phillip Rivers's 287 yards and 4 TDs as well as Derrick Ward and his 215 yards (on only 15 carries, mind you).I don't want to dig into it any deeper. It still hurts.

I just can't ever win the big one.

[LeBron James]

Yeah, I agree, once you make the play-offs, it's a whole new ball game. Last year one of my teams limped into the play-offs. I needed a few things to happen to make it in. The team ahead of me had to lose, which they did. And I had to win on that last week, which I did. So I limp into the play-offs and everything goes right and I win my first FF championship.

I think I picked up Tashard Choice and Cedric Benson and Tyler Thigpen late and they helped me win it. So yeah, just make the play-offs and anything can happen. Doesn't matter if you're 7-6 or 13-0.

[fantasizing]

Well, its just like any other form of gambling. Just like playing blackjack at the casino or playing Holdem with your friends. All you can do is try to increase your odds of winning by drafting good backups and getting depth in the event your starters get injured. Hope you start the right players on any given week, and try to predict the future as best as possible.

Hell, I would say the most important thing is "going with your gut feeling".