consistent winners: how much luck is involved?

[woodson_28]

"It takes luck to win a championship. It takes skill to get there."

I've never heard that before, but I really like that saying. I consider myself a good/great fantasy player w/ zero luck. Below are my finishes for the last 5 years (all the years I've been playing) in a league of college friends.

2003 - 2nd place, lost championship game
2004 - 2nd place, lost championship game
2005 - 6th place*
2006 - 3rd place
2007 - 3rd place

Made playoffs all years.
*This was my best shot to win of any year. I finished in 1st place w/ over 1500 total pts (H2H league) and 300+ pts more than 2nd place. I was bounced in the first rd of the playoffs when my team put up a lame week. It was a 12 team league and I had C. Palmer (career year), LT, S. Alexander (27 TD year), S.Smith (career year), P. Burress, Tony G, etc...

[Azrael]

Out of the 4 redraft leagues I have been in mine went like this.

League 1 (that I've finally decided to quit this year because of the neanderthal scoring system) - Made playoffs 9 straight years (2000-2008) with 1 title in 2005.

League 2 (2005-2007 (I quit after 3 years cause I only knew one guy, it was an online draft that I "coincidentally" always drafted 12th) 2005 - 1st, 2006 - 1st, 2007 -missed playoffs

My second title in this league was probably the worst team I have ever had to make the playoffs and somehow I pulled off a run like the Steelers had the year before. I was literally being cursed out by 3 or 4 guys I never met on the league message board. They hated me because I jokingly talked about going B2B all season, all the while they made fun of how bad my team was all year (which it was). I somehow squeaked into the 6 seed at 6-7. I then proceeded to roll with ridiculous matchups and FA pickups for 3 straight weeks while my opponents continually had off weeks themselves. I played the guy who finished 11-2 in the regular season and mowed down his week 15 opponent in the championship game. Not only did I beat him but it was a destruction of biblical proportions. Go check out the ridiculousness that Vince Young, Vernon Davis, Ron Dayne, and Minny's D pulled off in week 16. Couple that with the few studs like Gore and Fitz that I did have and it was like lightning in a bottle. Definitely the most satisfying victory I've ever had.

League 3 (2003-current) 2003 - 3rd, 2004 - 2nd, 2005 - 3rd, 2006 - 1st, 2007 - missed playoffs, 2008 - 2nd

League 4 (2006-current) 2006 - 3rd, 2007 - 2nd, 2008 - 2nd

[mattUTD20]

"It takes luck to win a championship. It takes skill to get there."

This is what perennial playoff choke artists say. Kind of like when ugly people try to make you believe that true beauty is on the inside.

Just kidding, that saying is pretty accurate. If you are consistently winning championships in your league, then you are either a) lucky and/or b) playing inferior competition but either way you are good relative to who you are playing. Just because you regularly stomp Yahoo Public leagues doesn't mean you are God's gift to fantasy football though. If you make the playoffs regularly, you are either a) good or b) playing against inferior competition. Making the playoffs doesn't really have a lot to do with luck. The standard setup is usually 12 teams, 6 to the playoffs with 1&2 seed with a bye, so on average you have either decent teams or crap teams. If you field a playoff team every year, you are still probably better than half your league so take comfort in that. If you don't have a lot of playoff teams, try Yahoo Public leagues.

Personally I think winning a lot of championships has more to do with the kind of people you are playing against than luck. If it's a casual friends/family league then its not as hard as a Cafe league or website league where you know a lot of the owners read every post on rotoworld, PFT etc. And website/forum leagues aren't as hard as money leagues where you know everyone is working their hardest and that league probably sits on top of the priority list from others. There it is harder to consistently make the playoffs much less win championships when you know your competition is equal and everyone is working from the same knowledge base.

[swyck]

I agree with most posters that getting into the playoffs consistently shows your skill, and that you need some luck to win it all. It's one loss and you're done so a bad week and its over. I've had great teams dominate all year get bounced in week one, and mediocre teams sneak into the playoffs and win it all. Nothing wrong with that.

However, while I agree that there's a lot of luck in making it through the playoffs, there is some skill in planning your playoff run as well. Who's getting hot, who's going to lose time, how do I maximize my chances for points at each position? No point in whining that you have the better team, and only lost because player X got sat down after the 1st Q. You often can't just pencil in the same lineup you used all season long.

[moochman]

In most cases the measure of luck can be determined with a mathmatical formula of:
Persperation + Preperation + Opportunity = Luck. In most competitive leagues, but the time you get to the championship game you are playing against someone else who has also used that formula and the unforeseen lucky ball bounce types of things play a larger role.
So, yeah, getting their is skill.

[LeBron James]

There are also cases where there is skill and BAD luck. Every year there is a team that scores a lot but seem to play the highest scoring team, or close to the highest scoring team each week. So they end up with the most points or second most points in the league and somehow miss the playoffs.

Those are the teams that when they win, they win big, like 120-75. When they lose, it's 115-112. They just can't catch a break.

[Dalingh]

There has been a saying floating around the cafe for a few years now and I believe it 100%.

"It takes luck to win a championship. It takes skill to get there."

You make the playoffs on a consistent basis, you are a good FF player. You win a championship in 1 out of your 4 leagues and miss the playoffs in the other 3, consider yourself lucky.

I would say that this is very accurate. Going into last year I was the defending champ in my 12 team H2H league and finished in 3rd the previous year (2006). Last year I made it to the championship game and managed to win by a fraction of a point due to Alex Brown's blocked kick on MNF. No doubt it was lucky, but it took skill to get there.

[Dan Lambskin]

There are also cases where there is skill and BAD luck. Every year there is a team that scores a lot but seem to play the highest scoring team, or close to the highest scoring team each week. So they end up with the most points or second most points in the league and somehow miss the playoffs.

Those are the teams that when they win, they win big, like 120-75. When they lose, it's 115-112. They just can't catch a break.

i'm not a huge fan of it, but Victory Points help offset that
Win = 2 points
Top 4 weekly Score = 2 points
5-8 weekly score = 1 point
9-12 = 0 points

[LeBron James]

There are also cases where there is skill and BAD luck. Every year there is a team that scores a lot but seem to play the highest scoring team, or close to the highest scoring team each week. So they end up with the most points or second most points in the league and somehow miss the playoffs.

Those are the teams that when they win, they win big, like 120-75. When they lose, it's 115-112. They just can't catch a break.

i'm not a huge fan of it, but Victory Points help offset that
Win = 2 points
Top 4 weekly Score = 2 points
5-8 weekly score = 1 point
9-12 = 0 points

Hmm, I have never seen this scoring system before, but it would definitely help those tough-luck teams.

[dgan]

I agree, of course, but I'll add that it is all relative. It depends on league rules/setup and competence/participation of the other owners. I stopped playing in small bench leagues because it never failed - half the owners would not take the time to search the FA wire and the same handful of teams always seemed to benefit from their greater "skill" - including me. Actually, it wasn't skill at all...it was merely participation.

Now I play in a league that drafts 250 players...the best player I got off the waiver wire last year was Greg Camarillo...I'm not even sure that's how you spell his name. This league is much more competitive because it isn't influenced as greatly post-draft, and injuries are easier to overcome. As long as you put in your effort for the draft (which everyone loves to do) and turn in a sensible lineup (you won't be back next year if you don't), then most of the season outcome depends on your drafting skills.

Sure, we've had the league leading scorer miss the playoffs once and things like that. I just like to point out that there is a difference between skill and effort. I think many people overestimated their skill level - I think it would be humbling to a lot of FFL players to play in a league where their season can't be saved by a FA that no one else bothered to pick up. In another thread, someone mentioned they are playing a best ball league. Something like that will remind you just how much luck is involved in FFL. But to do well in a competitive league consistently does take a lot of skill.