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BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

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BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby BGbootha » Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:05 pm

1 Brees, Drew QB NO

2 Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
3 Manning, Peyton QB IND
4 Rivers, Philip QB SD

5 McNabb, Donovan QB PHI
6 Brady, Tom QB NE

7 Warner, Kurt QB ARI
8 Romo, Tony QB DAL
9 Schaub, Matt QB HOU
10 Palmer, Carson QB CIN
11 Hasselbeck, Matt QB SEA

12 Ryan, Matt QB ATL
12 Cassel, Matt QB KC
13 Cutler, Jay QB CHI

14 Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
15 Edwards, Trent QB BUF
16 Campbell, Jason QB WAS
17 Manning, Eli QB NYG
18 Orton, Kyle QB DEN
19 Bulger, Marc QB STL
20 Hill, Shaun QB SF
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Dan Lambskin » Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:23 pm

Rodgers and Rivers too high, Brady too low

here is mine

1 Drew Brees
2 Peyton Manning
3 Tom Brady

4 Kurt Warner
5 Aaron Rodgers

6 Donovan McNabb

7 Matt Schaub
8 Matt Ryan
9 Phillip Rivers
10 Tony Romo
11 Jay Cutler
12 Ben Roethlisberger

13 Carson Palmer
14 Matt Hasselbeck
15 Kyle Orton
16 Eli Manning
17 David Garrard
18 Matt Cassel
19 Trent Edwards

20 Shaun Hill
21 Jake Delhomme
22 Jason Campbell

24 Chad Pennington
25 Marc Bulger
26 Joe Flacco
27 Sage Rosenfels
28 Brady Quinn
29 Mark Sanchez
30 JaMarcus Russell
31 Daunte Culpepper
32 Kerry Collins
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Azrael » Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:50 pm

Rivers is the most obvious guy to me to step back this year. Rivers threw TDs on 7% of his pass attempts. Most of the time guys are between 4-5.5. That and 8.4 yards per attempt is obscene. If he throws the ball the same amount of times that he did last year I'd expect the guy around 3,600 yards and 26 TDs or so.

Tom Brady, with the weaponry they have there, I would expect him over 4,000 yards and well into the 30's in TDs.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby codered7 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:55 pm

How can you have Brady at 6? Before the injury he broke every record imaginable. Now he is healthy and he has even MORE weapons with galloway.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby biju » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:02 pm

There are four QBs that are consistently too high in all rankings. I'm guessing it has to do with their overall high-profile teams or the fact that people sometimes confuse real-life with fantasy. There four are:

Aaron Rodgers
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Eli Manning

Given this, it appears neither of you fell into the Eli trap, but you did with the others to varying degrees. Otherwise these look pretty good.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Dan Lambskin » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:07 pm

biju wrote:There are four QBs that are consistently too high in all rankings. I'm guessing it has to do with their overall high-profile teams or the fact that people sometimes confuse real-life with fantasy. There four are:

Aaron Rodgers
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Eli Manning

Given this, it appears neither of you fell into the Eli trap, but you did with the others to varying degrees. Otherwise these look pretty good.


FWIW it would be unlikely that i end up with any of my Top 5 QB's in a redraft
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby eagles21 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:08 pm

Where's David Garrard? Dude didn't have an o-line or WR's last year and he was still #9 in fantasy points for QB's. :-?
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Azrael » Mon Aug 03, 2009 4:04 pm

biju wrote:
Aaron Rodgers


What is "too high" for Aaron Rodgers and why do you think he's too high. What are the red flags with him? He seemed pretty consistent last year and his offense and coaches are in tact. I'm not sure how the guy can be much lower than the 5th QB off the board.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby biju » Mon Aug 03, 2009 4:28 pm

Azrael wrote:
biju wrote:
Aaron Rodgers


What is "too high" for Aaron Rodgers and why do you think he's too high. What are the red flags with him? He seemed pretty consistent last year and his offense and coaches are in tact. I'm not sure how the guy can be much lower than the 5th QB off the board.


Well, a top 5 pick alone shouldn't have one quarter of their games with under 186 yds and a total of 4 TDs and 3 INTs in those four games. The only other QB ranked high that did this was Philip Rivers (who ended his four game stretch with 2 TDs and 4 INTs instead).

Given the running problems GB had last year and the fact that they were behind in all those games makes me wonder exactly how much his stats should decline this year. Given a decline in stats and the inconsistency Rodgers has, I don't see him being anything higher than about 7th or 8th.

I know that I'm not going to be the guy with Rodgers on my roster this year, that's for sure. I can see him being a value play in 2010 after a lot of people get burned this year, but not this year for me.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Kensat30 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 4:28 pm

Looking at your rankings, I get the impression that you are overvaluing guys in stable/known situations and undervaluing guys in new/unknown situations.

Tom Brady broke the TD record the year before last, gets injured the following year in game 1, and this year he is ranked #6? Huh? I'm almost poised to take this guy in round 1. Drew Brees has been the most consistent high profile QB in the NFL for the past several years, but if Brady is on his game Brees won't even come close to touching the guy. And by your rankings, you have a guy in Phillip Rivers who had a career year in virtually every category last year, but continued to stay limited in attempts. This is a guy who we can pretty confidently predict will stay below 500 passes this year, and this year he could end up closer to 3400/25 just like Drew Brees saw in the same system before he moved onto the much more friendly New Orleans Payton offense. Why is last years production your model for the upcoming season?

I don't understand the lack of love for Matt Ryan by you or the lack of love for Carson Palmer in general. How are these guys considered more risky than Donovan McNabb (injury candidate, lack of rushing stats, benched last year) and Kurt Warner (walking body cast IMO). Matt Ryan is this years Carson Palmer (even #3 WR Harry Douglas is stepping up big time there) and Carson Palmer was a consensus top5 QB before he got injured last year, very similar to Tom Brady as the consensus #1 before injury. And then what about Jay Cutler? How can a guy like that be behind a guy like Matt Cassel. If Peyton Manning was traded to the Detroit Lions, do you suddenly drop him down into the nether regions behind guys like Chad Pennington? Matt Cassel is the ultimate give up pick. Talent counts for SOMETHING. Do yourself a favor, ignore what happened in 2008 and rethink so of these rankings. Do you really expect Phillip Rivers to outproduce Tom Brady in 2009? The real question is, will he even outproduce guys like Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger? Why is Matt Cassel ranked so highly? Dwayne Bowe is not Randy Moss and Scott Pioli is not Bill Belicheck.
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